OPEC+ is in the process of retaking market share, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), and Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Tuesday.  “Oil prices are likely to fall for a fourth straight year as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and retakes market share,” the analysts said in the report. “We expect Brent crude to average $55 per barrel in Q4/25 before OPEC+ steps in to stabilize the market into 2026,” they added. “Surplus, stock building, oil prices are under pressure with OPEC+ calling the shots as to how rough it wants to play it,” they went on to state. The SEB analysts noted in the report that OPEC+ is in a process of unwinding voluntary cuts by a sub-group of the members and taking back market share but added that the process looks set to be different from 2014-16, “as the group doesn’t look likely to blindly lift production to take back market share”. “The group has stated very explicitly that it can just as well cut production as increase it ahead,” Hvalbye and Schieldrop pointed out in the report. “While the oil price is unlikely to drop as violently and lasting as in 2014-16, it will likely fall further before the group steps in with fresh cuts to stabilize the price,” they warned. “We expect Brent to fall to $55 per barrel in Q4/25 before the group steps in with fresh cuts at the end of the year,” they continued. In a market comment sent to Rigzone on Friday, Van Ha Trinh, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, said, “the increase in OPEC output during September has reinforced concerns about oversupply”. “While a potential pause in production hikes after that could provide

Libya’s state-run energy company is proposing reviving a multibillion-dollar natural gas project to ease electricity shortages, a move that may also be a boon for a rival administration in the country’s east. The National Oil Corp. wants its unit Arabian Gulf Oil Co. to develop discovered gas deposits in the NC-7 block in western Libya, potentially in collaboration with consortium partners Eni SpA, TotalEnergies SE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Turkish Petroleum Corp., according to a letter from the NOC to Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, the prime minister of Libya’s internationally recognized government. The project would, however, be overseen by a new company established in Benghazi in the east, according to the letter. Such an arrangement would be beneficial for the eastern administration which has often complained about not getting its fair share of energy revenue, resulting in frequent disruptions to the country’s vast oil production. Tapping Libya’s gas resources, estimated at about 53 trillion cubic feet according to the US Energy Information Administration, is becoming crucial for authorities to meet export commitments and rising local demand. NC-7 would be one of the biggest new projects in the country, according to the report. But a previous plan to develop the discoveries stalled in 2023 after Libyan objections to the share of profits that would be granted to overseas companies.  Eni, TotalEnergies and Adnoc declined to comment on the NOC letter, a copy of which was seen by Bloomberg. Libyan energy officials didn’t respond to requests for comment, nor did Turkey’s energy ministry, which controls Turkish Petroleum Corp. Libya, riven by conflict since the toppling of longtime leader Moammar Al Qaddafi in 2011, is split between Dbeibah’s government in Tripoli in the country’s west, and a rival administration in Benghazi. The two sides frequently feud over energy revenue, leading to shutdowns

The European Commission has added five to the list of cross-border renewable energy projects (CB RES) eligible for financing under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) for Energy program, expanding the list to 13 projects. “The five projects, thanks to the official CB RES status, are now eligible for financial support for studies and works under the CEF Energy Program”, the Commission said in a statement on its website. “Furthermore, they benefit from higher visibility, increased investor certainty and stronger support from member states”. The newly recognized projects involve the Baltic states, North Africa, Germany, Poland and Portugal. To rise on the Estonian side of the Baltic Sea, the Liivi Bay Offshore Wind Farm will be radially connected to the national grid with a capacity of one gigawatt (GW). It is expected to go online 2031. “The wind farm will contribute to Estonia’s goal of producing 100 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030, while also supporting Latvia’s energy transition”, the Commission said. Straddling the Latvia-Lithuania border, the onshore Utilitas Eleja-Jonisķis Wind Park is expected to deliver 200 megawatts from 2028. “The project is strategically located to connect to the 330 kV Viskaļi-Musa transmission line, enhancing regional grid stability and energy independence”, the Commission said. Meanwhile the Twin Heat project will decarbonize the district heating systems of the twin cities of Slubice, Poland, and Frankfurt, Germany. Renewables-based heating infrastructure enabling cross-border heat exchange will be installed. The latest additions to the CB RES list also include a research project that “paves the way for groundwork for future cross-border deployment of floating offshore wind energy in Portugal in a cooperation with Luxembourg”, the Commission said. “It will assess offshore wind zones, grid reinforcements and auction models, helping to unlock up to 10 GW of offshore wind capacity in Portugal. The project also fosters collaboration around

Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) has posted revenues of MYR 132.6 billion ($31.4 billion) for the first half of 2025, versus $41 billion for H1 2024. The company, in its report, attributed the decline to discontinued operations from the Engen Group divestment in May 2024, as well as unfavorable foreign exchange. Petronas also cited lower average realized prices from petroleum products, crude oil, and condensates following the downward trend in benchmark prices. Profit after tax was $6.2 billion, dropping 19 percent from H1 2024. EBITDA totaled $12.8 billion, lower by 15 percent in line with lower profits, Petronas said. “Petronas remains unwavering in our commitment to strengthen our business and portfolio resilience for long-term growth amid an increasingly challenging macro environment in the first half of 2025”, Muhammad Taufik, Petronas President and Group CEO. “Through the focused execution of our Energy Transition Strategy, portfolio optimization and prudent capital management, we are expediting a critical transformation to continue delivering energy safely, reliably and sustainably to those we serve”. Petronas said it expects oil prices to remain low due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainties in the macroeconomic landscape, changing regulatory conditions, and the swift reversal of OPEC+ production cuts, which will continually alter global energy dynamics and trade patterns. Petronas said it is focusing on providing advantaged hydrocarbons with reduced costs and emissions. This initiative is supported by numerous upstream discoveries and developments, especially in Malaysia, Suriname, Indonesia, and Angola, it said. The inaugural liquefied natural gas cargo from the LNG Canada facility also marked a strategic expansion of Petronas’ supply footprint. Petronas said it is enhancing its integrated low-carbon value chain through focused investments in solar energy and energy solutions hubs. To contact the author, email [email protected] What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the Rigzone

TotalEnergies SE has received two exploration permits offshore Nigeria and one offshore Republic of the Congo, growing its footprint in the two countries. The Nzombo exploration license sits 100 kilometers (62.14 miles) off the coast of Pointe-Noire, near the Moho production facilities operated by TotalEnergies EP Congo. The block spans 1,000 square kilometers (386.1 square miles), according to the French energy giant. “The work program includes the drilling of one exploration well, which is expected to spud before the end of 2025”, TotalEnergies said in a statement on its website. “This award of a promising exploration permit, with the material Nzombo prospect, reflects our continued strategy of expanding our exploration portfolio with high-impact prospects, which can be developed leveraging our existing facilities, and confirms our longstanding partnership with the Republic of the Congo”, said Kevin McLachlan, senior vice president for exploration at TotalEnergies. In the new block TotalEnergies is operator with a 50 percent stake. QatarEnergy and national oil company SNPC own 35 percent and 15 percent respectively. Meanwhile for the new Nigerian awards, TotalEnergies and local player South Atlantic Petroleum Ltd. (SAPETRO) signed a production sharing contract (PSC) containing PPLs 2000 and 2001, TotalEnergies said Tuesday. The West African country awarded the permits under its 2024 exploration bidding. TotalEnergies is operator with an 80 percent stake while SAPETRO owns 20 percent. Located in the “prolific” West Delta basin, the two permits cover about 2,000 square kilometers (772.2 square miles), TotalEnergies said. “The work program includes drilling one firm exploration well”, it said. “TotalEnergies is honored to be the first international company to be awarded exploration licenses in a bid round in Nigeria in more than a decade, marking a new milestone in our long-term partnership with the country”, said McLachlan. “These promising block captures are fully aligned with our strategy of strengthening

The U.S. Department of Transportation is withdrawing or terminating $679 million in funding for 12 port and infrastructure upgrades that would support offshore wind projects, it announced Friday. “As part of the Department of Transportation’s review of all discretionary grant programs with obligated and unobligated projects, USDOT identified 12 offshore wind grants and project selections that were not aligned with the goals and priorities of the administration,” the department said in a release. The defunded projects include the Sparrows Point Steel Marshalling Port Project, which had been awarded $47.3 million in Port Infrastructure Development Program; the Arthur Kill Terminal, an offshore wind port in New York, which had been allocated $48 million in PIDP funding; and the Humboldt Bay Offshore Wind Heavy Lift Multipurpose Marine Terminal, which had been allocated $426.7 million in Nationally Significant Freight and Highway Projects funding. The department’s release said the Trump administration has “refocused” DOT and its Maritime Administration “on rebuilding America’s shipbuilding capacity, unleashing more reliable, traditional forms of energy, and utilizing the nation’s bountiful natural resources to unleash American energy.” “Where possible, funding from these projects will be recompeted to address critical port upgrades and other core infrastructure needs of the United States,” DOT said. This funding clawback is the latest in a series of moves from President Donald Trump to reverse course on federal support for offshore wind. Last month the U.S. Department of Commerce opened a probe into wind turbine imports, setting the stage for new tariffs, and it rescinded all “wind energy areas” the Biden administration had designated for future lease sales on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. Also last month, the Department of the Interior issued a stop work order to the 700-MW Revolution Wind project and said in court that it intends to revoke the approved construction and operations plan