Get ONMINE

Stay Ahead, Stay ONMINE

What’s next for AI in 2025

MIT Technology Review’s What’s Next series looks across industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here. For the last couple of years we’ve had a go at predicting what’s coming next in AI. A fool’s game given how fast this industry moves. But we’re on a roll, and we’re doing it again. How did we score last time round? Our four hot trends to watch out for in 2024 included what we called customized chatbots—interactive helper apps powered by multimodal large language models (check: we didn’t know it yet, but we were talking about what everyone now calls agents, the hottest thing in AI right now); generative video (check: few technologies have improved so fast in the last 12 months, with OpenAI and Google DeepMind releasing their flagship video generation models, Sora and Veo, within a week of each other this December); and more general-purpose robots that can do a wider range of tasks (check: the payoffs from large language models continue to trickle down to other parts of the tech industry, and robotics is top of the list).  We also said that AI-generated election disinformation would be everywhere, but here—happily—we got it wrong. There were many things to wring our hands over this year, but political deepfakes were thin on the ground.  So what’s coming in 2025? We’re going to ignore the obvious here: You can bet that agents and smaller, more efficient, language models will continue to shape the industry. Instead, here are five alternative picks from our AI team. 1. Generative virtual playgrounds  If 2023 was the year of generative images and 2024 was the year of generative video—what comes next? If you guessed generative virtual worlds (a.k.a. video games), high fives all round. We got a tiny glimpse of this technology in February, when Google DeepMind revealed a generative model called Genie that could take a still image and turn it into a side-scrolling 2D platform game that players could interact with. In December, the firm revealed Genie 2, a model that can spin a starter image into an entire virtual world. Other companies are building similar tech. In October, the AI startups Decart and Etched revealed an unofficial Minecraft hack in which every frame of the game gets generated on the fly as you play. And World Labs, a startup cofounded by Fei-Fei Li—creator of ImageNet, the vast data set of photos that kick-started the deep-learning boom—is building what it calls large world models, or LWMs. One obvious application is video games. There’s a playful tone to these early experiments, and generative 3D simulations could be used to explore design concepts for new games, turning a sketch into a playable environment on the fly. This could lead to entirely new types of games.  But they could also be used to train robots. World Labs wants to develop so-called spatial intelligence—the ability for machines to interpret and interact with the everyday world. But robotics researchers lack good data about real-world scenarios with which to train such technology. Spinning up countless virtual worlds and dropping virtual robots into them to learn by trial and error could help make up for that.    —Will Douglas Heaven 2. Large language models that “reason” The buzz was justified. When OpenAI revealed o1 in September, it introduced a new paradigm in how large language models work. Two months later, the firm pushed that paradigm forward in almost every way with o3—a model that just might reshape this technology for good. Most models, including OpenAI’s flagship GPT-4, spit out the first response they come up with. Sometimes it’s correct; sometimes it’s not. But the firm’s new models are trained to work through their answers step by step, breaking down tricky problems into a series of simpler ones. When one approach isn’t working, they try another. This technique, known as “reasoning” (yes—we know exactly how loaded that term is), can make this technology more accurate, especially for math, physics, and logic problems. It’s also crucial for agents. In December, Google DeepMind revealed an experimental new web-browsing agent called Mariner. In the middle of a preview demo that the company gave to MIT Technology Review, Mariner seemed to get stuck. Megha Goel, a product manager at the company, had asked the agent to find her a recipe for Christmas cookies that looked like the ones in a photo she’d given it. Mariner found a recipe on the web and started adding the ingredients to Goel’s online grocery basket. Then it stalled; it couldn’t figure out what type of flour to pick. Goel watched as Mariner explained its steps in a chat window: “It says, ‘I will use the browser’s Back button to return to the recipe.’” It was a remarkable moment. Instead of hitting a wall, the agent had broken the task down into separate actions and picked one that might resolve the problem. Figuring out you need to click the Back button may sound basic, but for a mindless bot it’s akin to rocket science. And it worked: Mariner went back to the recipe, confirmed the type of flour, and carried on filling Goel’s basket. Google DeepMind is also building an experimental version of Gemini 2.0, its latest large language model, that uses this step-by-step approach to problem solving, called Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking. But OpenAI and Google are just the tip of the iceberg. Many companies are building large language models that use similar techniques, making them better at a whole range of tasks, from cooking to coding. Expect a lot more buzz about reasoning (we know, we know) this year. —Will Douglas Heaven 3. It’s boom time for AI in science  One of the most exciting uses for AI is speeding up discovery in the natural sciences. Perhaps the greatest vindication of AI’s potential on this front came last October, when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize for chemistry to Demis Hassabis and John M. Jumper from Google DeepMind for building the AlphaFold tool, which can solve protein folding, and to David Baker for building tools to help design new proteins. Expect this trend to continue next year, and to see more data sets and models that are aimed specifically at scientific discovery. Proteins were the perfect target for AI, because the field had excellent existing data sets that AI models could be trained on.  The hunt is on to find the next big thing. One potential area is materials science. Meta has released massive data sets and models that could help scientists use AI to discover new materials much faster, and in December, Hugging Face, together with the startup Entalpic, launched LeMaterial, an open-source project that aims to simplify and accelerate materials research. Their first project is a data set that unifies, cleans, and standardizes the most prominent material data sets.  AI model makers are also keen to pitch their generative products as research tools for scientists. OpenAI let scientists test its latest o1 model and see how it might support them in research. The results were encouraging.  Having an AI tool that can operate in a similar way to a scientist is one of the fantasies of the tech sector. In a manifesto published in October last year, Anthropic founder Dario Amodei highlighted science, especially biology, as one of the key areas where powerful AI could help. Amodei speculates that in the future, AI could be not only a method of data analysis but a “virtual biologist who performs all the tasks biologists do.” We’re still a long way away from this scenario. But next year, we might see important steps toward it.  —Melissa Heikkilä 4. AI companies get cozier with national security There is a lot of money to be made by AI companies willing to lend their tools to border surveillance, intelligence gathering, and other national security tasks.  The US military has launched a number of initiatives that show it’s eager to adopt AI, from the Replicator program—which, inspired by the war in Ukraine, promises to spend $1 billion on small drones—to the Artificial Intelligence Rapid Capabilities Cell, a unit bringing AI into everything from battlefield decision-making to logistics. European militaries are under pressure to up their tech investment, triggered by concerns that Donald Trump’s administration will cut spending to Ukraine. Rising tensions between Taiwan and China weigh heavily on the minds of military planners, too.  In 2025, these trends will continue to be a boon for defense-tech companies like Palantir, Anduril, and others, which are now capitalizing on classified military data to train AI models.  The defense industry’s deep pockets will tempt mainstream AI companies into the fold too. OpenAI in December announced it is partnering with Anduril on a program to take down drones, completing a year-long pivot away from its policy of not working with the military. It joins the ranks of Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, which have worked with the Pentagon for years.  Other AI competitors, which are spending billions to train and develop new models, will face more pressure in 2025 to think seriously about revenue. It’s possible that they’ll find enough non-defense customers who will pay handsomely for AI agents that can handle complex tasks, or creative industries willing to spend on image and video generators.  But they’ll also be increasingly tempted to throw their hats in the ring for lucrative Pentagon contracts. Expect to see companies wrestle with whether working on defense projects will be seen as a contradiction to their values. OpenAI’s rationale for changing its stance was that “democracies should continue to take the lead in AI development,” the company wrote, reasoning that lending its models to the military would advance that goal. In 2025, we’ll be watching others follow its lead.  —James O’Donnell 5. Nvidia sees legitimate competition For much of the current AI boom, if you were a tech startup looking to try your hand at making an AI model, Jensen Huang was your man. As CEO of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable corporation, Huang helped the company become the undisputed leader of chips used both to train AI models and to ping a model when anyone uses it, called “inferencing.” A number of forces could change that in 2025. For one, behemoth competitors like Amazon, Broadcom, AMD, and others have been investing heavily in new chips, and there are early indications that these could compete closely with Nvidia’s—particularly for inference, where Nvidia’s lead is less solid.  A growing number of startups are also attacking Nvidia from a different angle. Rather than trying to marginally improve on Nvidia’s designs, startups like Groq are making riskier bets on entirely new chip architectures that, with enough time, promise to provide more efficient or effective training. In 2025 these experiments will still be in their early stages, but it’s possible that a standout competitor will change the assumption that top AI models rely exclusively on Nvidia chips. Underpinning this competition, the geopolitical chip war will continue. That war thus far has relied on two strategies. On one hand, the West seeks to limit exports to China of top chips and the technologies to make them. On the other, efforts like the US CHIPS Act aim to boost domestic production of semiconductors. Donald Trump may escalate those export controls and has promised massive tariffs on any goods imported from China. In 2025, such tariffs would put Taiwan—on which the US relies heavily because of the chip manufacturer TSMC—at the center of the trade wars. That’s because Taiwan has said it will help Chinese firms relocate to the island to help them avoid the proposed tariffs. That could draw further criticism from Trump, who has expressed frustration with US spending to defend Taiwan from China.  It’s unclear how these forces will play out, but it will only further incentivize chipmakers to reduce reliance on Taiwan, which is the entire purpose of the CHIPS Act. As spending from the bill begins to circulate, next year could bring the first evidence of whether it’s materially boosting domestic chip production.  —James O’Donnell

MIT Technology Review’s What’s Next series looks across industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here.

For the last couple of years we’ve had a go at predicting what’s coming next in AI. A fool’s game given how fast this industry moves. But we’re on a roll, and we’re doing it again.

How did we score last time round? Our four hot trends to watch out for in 2024 included what we called customized chatbots—interactive helper apps powered by multimodal large language models (check: we didn’t know it yet, but we were talking about what everyone now calls agents, the hottest thing in AI right now); generative video (check: few technologies have improved so fast in the last 12 months, with OpenAI and Google DeepMind releasing their flagship video generation models, Sora and Veo, within a week of each other this December); and more general-purpose robots that can do a wider range of tasks (check: the payoffs from large language models continue to trickle down to other parts of the tech industry, and robotics is top of the list). 

We also said that AI-generated election disinformation would be everywhere, but here—happily—we got it wrong. There were many things to wring our hands over this year, but political deepfakes were thin on the ground. 

So what’s coming in 2025? We’re going to ignore the obvious here: You can bet that agents and smaller, more efficient, language models will continue to shape the industry. Instead, here are five alternative picks from our AI team.

1. Generative virtual playgrounds 

If 2023 was the year of generative images and 2024 was the year of generative video—what comes next? If you guessed generative virtual worlds (a.k.a. video games), high fives all round.

We got a tiny glimpse of this technology in February, when Google DeepMind revealed a generative model called Genie that could take a still image and turn it into a side-scrolling 2D platform game that players could interact with. In December, the firm revealed Genie 2, a model that can spin a starter image into an entire virtual world.

Other companies are building similar tech. In October, the AI startups Decart and Etched revealed an unofficial Minecraft hack in which every frame of the game gets generated on the fly as you play. And World Labs, a startup cofounded by Fei-Fei Li—creator of ImageNet, the vast data set of photos that kick-started the deep-learning boom—is building what it calls large world models, or LWMs.

One obvious application is video games. There’s a playful tone to these early experiments, and generative 3D simulations could be used to explore design concepts for new games, turning a sketch into a playable environment on the fly. This could lead to entirely new types of games. 

But they could also be used to train robots. World Labs wants to develop so-called spatial intelligence—the ability for machines to interpret and interact with the everyday world. But robotics researchers lack good data about real-world scenarios with which to train such technology. Spinning up countless virtual worlds and dropping virtual robots into them to learn by trial and error could help make up for that.   

—Will Douglas Heaven

2. Large language models that “reason”

The buzz was justified. When OpenAI revealed o1 in September, it introduced a new paradigm in how large language models work. Two months later, the firm pushed that paradigm forward in almost every way with o3—a model that just might reshape this technology for good.

Most models, including OpenAI’s flagship GPT-4, spit out the first response they come up with. Sometimes it’s correct; sometimes it’s not. But the firm’s new models are trained to work through their answers step by step, breaking down tricky problems into a series of simpler ones. When one approach isn’t working, they try another. This technique, known as “reasoning” (yes—we know exactly how loaded that term is), can make this technology more accurate, especially for math, physics, and logic problems.

It’s also crucial for agents.

In December, Google DeepMind revealed an experimental new web-browsing agent called Mariner. In the middle of a preview demo that the company gave to MIT Technology Review, Mariner seemed to get stuck. Megha Goel, a product manager at the company, had asked the agent to find her a recipe for Christmas cookies that looked like the ones in a photo she’d given it. Mariner found a recipe on the web and started adding the ingredients to Goel’s online grocery basket.

Then it stalled; it couldn’t figure out what type of flour to pick. Goel watched as Mariner explained its steps in a chat window: “It says, ‘I will use the browser’s Back button to return to the recipe.’”

It was a remarkable moment. Instead of hitting a wall, the agent had broken the task down into separate actions and picked one that might resolve the problem. Figuring out you need to click the Back button may sound basic, but for a mindless bot it’s akin to rocket science. And it worked: Mariner went back to the recipe, confirmed the type of flour, and carried on filling Goel’s basket.

Google DeepMind is also building an experimental version of Gemini 2.0, its latest large language model, that uses this step-by-step approach to problem solving, called Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking.

But OpenAI and Google are just the tip of the iceberg. Many companies are building large language models that use similar techniques, making them better at a whole range of tasks, from cooking to coding. Expect a lot more buzz about reasoning (we know, we know) this year.

—Will Douglas Heaven

3. It’s boom time for AI in science 

One of the most exciting uses for AI is speeding up discovery in the natural sciences. Perhaps the greatest vindication of AI’s potential on this front came last October, when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize for chemistry to Demis Hassabis and John M. Jumper from Google DeepMind for building the AlphaFold tool, which can solve protein folding, and to David Baker for building tools to help design new proteins.

Expect this trend to continue next year, and to see more data sets and models that are aimed specifically at scientific discovery. Proteins were the perfect target for AI, because the field had excellent existing data sets that AI models could be trained on. 

The hunt is on to find the next big thing. One potential area is materials science. Meta has released massive data sets and models that could help scientists use AI to discover new materials much faster, and in December, Hugging Face, together with the startup Entalpic, launched LeMaterial, an open-source project that aims to simplify and accelerate materials research. Their first project is a data set that unifies, cleans, and standardizes the most prominent material data sets. 

AI model makers are also keen to pitch their generative products as research tools for scientists. OpenAI let scientists test its latest o1 model and see how it might support them in research. The results were encouraging. 

Having an AI tool that can operate in a similar way to a scientist is one of the fantasies of the tech sector. In a manifesto published in October last year, Anthropic founder Dario Amodei highlighted science, especially biology, as one of the key areas where powerful AI could help. Amodei speculates that in the future, AI could be not only a method of data analysis but a “virtual biologist who performs all the tasks biologists do.” We’re still a long way away from this scenario. But next year, we might see important steps toward it. 

—Melissa Heikkilä

4. AI companies get cozier with national security

There is a lot of money to be made by AI companies willing to lend their tools to border surveillance, intelligence gathering, and other national security tasks. 

The US military has launched a number of initiatives that show it’s eager to adopt AI, from the Replicator program—which, inspired by the war in Ukraine, promises to spend $1 billion on small drones—to the Artificial Intelligence Rapid Capabilities Cell, a unit bringing AI into everything from battlefield decision-making to logistics. European militaries are under pressure to up their tech investment, triggered by concerns that Donald Trump’s administration will cut spending to Ukraine. Rising tensions between Taiwan and China weigh heavily on the minds of military planners, too. 

In 2025, these trends will continue to be a boon for defense-tech companies like Palantir, Anduril, and others, which are now capitalizing on classified military data to train AI models. 

The defense industry’s deep pockets will tempt mainstream AI companies into the fold too. OpenAI in December announced it is partnering with Anduril on a program to take down drones, completing a year-long pivot away from its policy of not working with the military. It joins the ranks of Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, which have worked with the Pentagon for years. 

Other AI competitors, which are spending billions to train and develop new models, will face more pressure in 2025 to think seriously about revenue. It’s possible that they’ll find enough non-defense customers who will pay handsomely for AI agents that can handle complex tasks, or creative industries willing to spend on image and video generators. 

But they’ll also be increasingly tempted to throw their hats in the ring for lucrative Pentagon contracts. Expect to see companies wrestle with whether working on defense projects will be seen as a contradiction to their values. OpenAI’s rationale for changing its stance was that “democracies should continue to take the lead in AI development,” the company wrote, reasoning that lending its models to the military would advance that goal. In 2025, we’ll be watching others follow its lead. 

—James O’Donnell

5. Nvidia sees legitimate competition

For much of the current AI boom, if you were a tech startup looking to try your hand at making an AI model, Jensen Huang was your man. As CEO of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable corporation, Huang helped the company become the undisputed leader of chips used both to train AI models and to ping a model when anyone uses it, called “inferencing.”

A number of forces could change that in 2025. For one, behemoth competitors like Amazon, Broadcom, AMD, and others have been investing heavily in new chips, and there are early indications that these could compete closely with Nvidia’s—particularly for inference, where Nvidia’s lead is less solid. 

A growing number of startups are also attacking Nvidia from a different angle. Rather than trying to marginally improve on Nvidia’s designs, startups like Groq are making riskier bets on entirely new chip architectures that, with enough time, promise to provide more efficient or effective training. In 2025 these experiments will still be in their early stages, but it’s possible that a standout competitor will change the assumption that top AI models rely exclusively on Nvidia chips.

Underpinning this competition, the geopolitical chip war will continue. That war thus far has relied on two strategies. On one hand, the West seeks to limit exports to China of top chips and the technologies to make them. On the other, efforts like the US CHIPS Act aim to boost domestic production of semiconductors.

Donald Trump may escalate those export controls and has promised massive tariffs on any goods imported from China. In 2025, such tariffs would put Taiwan—on which the US relies heavily because of the chip manufacturer TSMC—at the center of the trade wars. That’s because Taiwan has said it will help Chinese firms relocate to the island to help them avoid the proposed tariffs. That could draw further criticism from Trump, who has expressed frustration with US spending to defend Taiwan from China. 

It’s unclear how these forces will play out, but it will only further incentivize chipmakers to reduce reliance on Taiwan, which is the entire purpose of the CHIPS Act. As spending from the bill begins to circulate, next year could bring the first evidence of whether it’s materially boosting domestic chip production. 

—James O’Donnell

Shape
Shape
Stay Ahead

Explore More Insights

More Articles

Stay ahead with more perspectives on cutting-edge power, infrastructure, energy,  bitcoin and AI solutions. Explore these articles to uncover strategies and insights shaping the future of industries.

Shape

Linux 7.0 debuts with some big changes for networking

The problem is that the existing ECN is too blunt. It’s a situation that AccECN looks to fix. “ECN was originally specified for TCP in such a way that only one feedback signal can be transmitted per Round-Trip Time,” the IETF draft specification for AccECN states. For basic congestion control

Read More »

U.S. Department of Energy Announces $14 Million for Enhanced Geothermal Systems Demonstration Project in Pennsylvania

WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of Energy’s Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office (HGEO) today announced a $14 million project to support field tests for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). EGS demonstration projects explore the greater potential for geothermal technology to provide reliable, cost-effective electricity using the earth’s abundant heat resources, supporting the Trump Administration’s commitments to advance energy addition and reduce energy costs for American families and businesses. Led by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the project will leverage the significant thermal resources in the Appalachian Utica Shale to assess the efficacy and scalability of EGS in the eastern United States.  “The Department of Energy’s investments in enhanced geothermal systems represent a key advancement in our national energy strategy as we explore innovative ways to reach and use geothermal resources beyond what is currently possible,” said Kyle Haustveit, Assistant Secretary of the Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office. “As the first enhanced geothermal systems demonstration site located in the eastern United States, this project offers an important opportunity to assess the ability of such systems to deliver reliable, affordable geothermal electricity to Americans nationwide.” Using geothermal resources for electricity production requires fluid to flow among hot rocks in the subsurface and then be drawn to the surface in the form of steam or hot water. While underground heat exists everywhere, many locations lack adequate water or conditions that facilitate fluid flow necessary to recover that heat energy. In those cases, EGS can be used to create a human-made underground reservoir to tap that heat for energy. Demonstration projects are vital to help expand knowledge and data about EGS reservoirs and how they function, and to understand EGS in a variety of geographic locations, geologic formations, and subsurface conditions. Successful demonstrations will help spur further growth of geothermal energy. The Pennsylvania EGS project activities will include converting a horizontal shale gas

Read More »

Wright, Zeldin, and Burgum Break Ground on NESE Pipeline in New York City to Deliver Reliable, Affordable Natural Gas to the Northeast

NEW YORK—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin, and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum today participated in a groundbreaking ceremony for the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) Pipeline. This pipeline, of Williams Companies, will transport natural gas from Pennsylvania into New York City and Long Island, providing affordable and reliable energy for millions of Americans while meeting the growing energy demands of the region. President Trump and his National Energy Dominance Council worked across party lines to secure the necessary permits for this project from the states of New York and New Jersey last fall. NESE is an expansion of Williams’ Transco pipeline system across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York that will add 400,000 dekatherms per day of capacity. This is enough energy to serve the equivalent of 2.3 million homes. NESE remains on track to be in service by the fourth quarter of 2027. “For decades, poor political choices obstructed the building of energy infrastructure, leading to higher energy costs for millions of Americans. President Trump promised to lower energy costs and to get America building again—that is exactly what the groundbreaking of the NESE pipeline will accomplish,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “This project is a win-win: natural gas is a reliable, low-cost, clean burning option for New Yorkers to heat and power their homes and businesses. President Trump, Secretary Burgum, Administrator Zeldin and I will continue fighting to build more energy infrastructure so that all Americans have access to affordable, reliable, and secure American energy.” “Breaking ground on the NESE pipeline marks a massive milestone for millions of New Yorkers seeking access to reliable, affordable natural gas. Delivering natural gas from Pennsylvania to New York City and Long Island will lower costs while helping to meet the growing energy

Read More »

BW Energy granted 25-year extension of license offshore Gabon

BW Energy Gabon has received approval from the Ministry of Oil and Gas of the Gabonese Republic to extend the Dussafu Marin production license offshore Gabon, West Africa. The license period has been extended to 2053 from 2028, inclusive of three 5-year option periods from 2038 onwards. The prior contract was until 2038 inclusive of two 5-year option periods from 2028 onwards. The extra time “provides long-term visibility for production, investments, and reserve development” of the operator’s “core producing asset,” the company said in a release Apr. 7. Ongoing license projects include MaBoMo Phase 2, with planned first oil in second-half 2026, and the Bourdon development following its discovery last year. The timeline also “strengthens the foundation for future infrastructure‑led growth opportunities across the adjacent Niosi and Guduma licenses, both operated by BW Energy,” the company continued. The Dussafu Marin permit is a development and exploitation license with multiple discoveries and prospects lying within a proven oil and gas play fairway within Southern Gabon basin. To the northwest of the block is the Etame-Ebouri Trend, a collection of fields producing from the pre-salt Gamba and Dentale sandstones, and to the north are Lucina and M’Bya fields which produce from the syn-rift Lucina sandstones beneath the Gamba. Oil fields within the Dussafu Permit include Moubenga, Walt Whitman, Ruche, Ruche North East, Tortue, Hibiscus, and Hibiscus North. BW Energy Gabon is operator at Dussafu (73.50%) with partners Panoro Energy ASA (17.5%) and Gabon Oil Co. (9%). Dussafu.

Read More »

Santos plans development of North Slope’s Quokka Unit

Santos Ltd. has started development planning in the Quokka Unit on Alaska’s North Slope after further delineating the Nanushuk reservoir. The Quokka-1 appraisal well spudded on Jan. 1, 2026, about 6 six miles from the Mitquq-1 discovery well drilled in 2020. It was drilled to 4,787 ft TD and encountered a high-quality reservoir with about 143 ft of net oil pay in the Nanushuk formation, demonstrating an average porosity of 19%. Following a single stage fracture stimulation, the well achieved a flow rate of 2,190 bo/d. Reservoir sands correlated between the two discoveries, coupled with fluid analyses, confirm the presence of high‑quality, light‑gravity oil, supporting strong well performance and improved pricing relative to Pikka oil. Together with additional geological data, these results underpin the potential for a two‑drill‑site development with production capacity comparable to Pikka phase 1, the company said.  Rate and resource potential for the two-drill-site development is being evaluated. Resource estimation is ongoing and appraisal results will be evaluated as part of the FY26 contingent resource assessment. In FY25, Santos reported 2C contingent resources of 177 MMboe for the Quokka Unit. Based on these results, Santos has started development planning, including the initiation of key permitting activities. Santos is operator of the Quokka Unit (51%) with partner Repsol (49%).

Read More »

Fluor, Axens secure contracts for US grassroots refinery project

Fluor Corp. and Axens Group have been awarded key contracts for America First Refining’s (AFR) proposed grassroots refinery at the Port of Brownsville, Tex., advancing development of what would be the first new US refinery to be built in more than 50 years. Fluor will execute front-end engineering and design (FEED) for the project, while Axens will serve as technology licensor of core refining process technologies to be used at the site, the service providers said in separate Apr. 7 releases. The AFR refinery is designed to process more than 60 million bbl/year—or about 164,400 b/d—of US light shale crude into transportation fuels, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Contract details Without disclosing a specific value of its contract, Fluor said the scope of its FEED study will cover early-stage engineering and design required to define project execution, cost, and schedule based on a complex that will incorporate commercially proven technologies to improve efficiency and emissions performance while processing domestic shale crude. As technology licensor, Axens said it will deliver process technologies for key refining units at the site, including those for: Naphtha, diesel hydrotreating. Continuous catalytic reforming. Isomerization. Alongside supporting improved fuel-quality specifications, the unspecified technologies to be supplied for the refinery will also help to reduce overall energy consumption at the site. Axens—which confirmed its involvement since 2017 in working with AFR on early-stage development of the project—said this latest licensing agreement will also cover engineering support, equipment, catalysts, and services across the refinery’s process configuration. Project background, commercial framework Upon first announcing the project in March 2026, AFR said the proposed development came alongside an already signed 20-year offtake agreement with a global integrated oil company covering 1.2 billion bbl of US light shale crude, as well as capital investment to support construction. As part of the

Read More »

EIA: US crude inventories up 3.1 million bbl

US crude oil inventories for the week ended Apr. 3, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 3.1 million bbl from the previous week, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). At 464.7 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are about 2% above the 5-year average for this time of year, the EIA report indicated. EIA said total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million bbl from last week and are about 3% above the 5-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million bbl last week and are about 5% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories increased by 600,000 bbl from last week and are 71% above the 5-year average for this time of year, EIA said. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million b/d for the week ended Apr. 3, which was 129,000 b/d less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92% of capacity. Gasoline production decreased, averaging 9.4 million b/d. Distillate fuel production increased, averaging 5.0 million b/d. US crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million b/d, down 130,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million b/d, 9.1% more than the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 571,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 152,000 b/d.

Read More »

Cisco just made two moves to own the AI infrastructure stack

In a world of autonomous agents, identity and access become the de facto safety rails. Astrix is designed to inventory these non-human identities, map their permissions, detect toxic combinations, and remediate overprivileged access before it becomes an exploit or a data leak. That capability integrates directly with Cisco’s broader zero-trust and identity-centric security strategy, in which the network enforces policy based on who or what the entity is, not on which subnet it resides in. How this strengthens Cisco’s secure networking story Cisco has positioned itself as the vendor that can deliver “AI-ready, secure networks” spanning campus, data center, cloud, and edge. Galileo and Astrix extend that narrative from infrastructure into AI behavior and identity governance: The network becomes the high‑performance, policy‑enforcing substrate for AI traffic and data. Splunk plus Galileo becomes the observability plane for AI agents, linking AI incidents to network and application signals. Security plus Astrix becomes the identity and permission-control layer that constrains what AI agents can actually do within the environment. This is the core of Cisco’s emerging “Secure AI” posture: not just using AI to improve security but securing AI itself as it is embedded across every workflow, API, and device. For customers, that means AI initiatives can be brought under the same operational and compliance disciplines already used for networks and apps, rather than existing as unmanaged risk islands. Why this matters to Cisco customers Most large Cisco accounts are exactly the enterprises now experimenting with AI agents in contact centers, IT operations, and business workflows. They face three practical problems: They cannot see what agents are doing end‑to‑end, or measure quality beyond offline benchmarks. They lack a coherent model for managing the identities, secrets, and permissions those agents depend on. Their security and networking teams are often disconnected from AI projects happening in lines of business.

Read More »

From Buildings to Token Factories: Compu Dynamics CEO Steve Altizer On Why AI Is Rewriting the Data Center Design Playbook

Not Falling Short—Just Not Optimized Altizer drew a clear distinction. Traditional data centers can run AI workloads, but they weren’t built for them. “We’re not falling short much, we’re just not optimizing.” The gap shows up most clearly in density. Legacy facilities were designed for roughly 300 to 400 watts per square foot. AI pushes that to 2,000 to 4,000 watts per square foot—changing not just rack design, but the logic of the entire facility. For Altizer, AI-ready infrastructure starts with fundamentals: access to water for heat rejection, significantly higher power density, and in some cases specific redundancy topologies favored by chip makers. It also requires liquid cooling loops extended to the rack and, critically, flexibility in the white space. That last point is the hardest to reconcile with traditional design. “The GPUs change… your power requirements change… your liquid cooling requirements change. The data center needs to change with it.” Buildings are static. AI is not. Rethinking Modular: From Containers to Systems “Modular” has been part of the data center vocabulary for years, but Altizer argues most of the industry is still thinking about it the wrong way. The old model centered on ISO containers. The emerging model focuses on modularizing the white space itself. “We’re not building buildings—we’re building assemblies of equipment.” Compu Dynamics is pushing toward factory-built IT modules that can be delivered and assembled on-site. A standard 5 MW block consists of 10 modules, stacked into a two-story configuration and designed for transport by trailer across the U.S. From there, scale becomes repeatable. Blocks can be placed adjacent or connected to create larger deployments, moving from 5 MW to 10 MW and beyond. The point is not just scalability; it’s repeatability and speed. Altizer ties this directly to a broader shift in how data centers are

Read More »

Data centers are moving inland, away from some traditional locations

The future is even less clear the further you go out. The vast majority of data centers planned for launch between 2028 and 2032 have yet to break ground and only a sliver are under construction. Those delays, it seems, appear to be twofold: first, the well-documented component shortage. Not just memory and storage, but batteries, electrical transformers, and circuit breakers. They all make up less than 10% of the cost to construct one data center, but as Andrew Likens, energy and infrastructure lead at AI data center provider Crusoe’s told Bloomberg, it’s impossible to build new data centers without them. “If one piece of your supply chain is delayed, then your whole project can’t deliver,” Likens said. “It is a pretty wild puzzle at the moment.” Second problem is the growing rebellion against data centers, both by citizens and governments alike. The latest pushback comes from the Seminole nation of Native Americans, who have banned data centers on their tribal lands. Of the data centers that are coming online in the next few months, the top states reflect what Synergy has been saying about data center migration to the interior of the country. Texas is leading the way, with 22.5 GW coming online, followed by New Mexico at 8.3 GW and Pennsylvania, which is making a major push for data centers to come to the state, at 7.1 GW.

Read More »

Hillwood, PowerHouse Advance $20B Joliet Data Campus as Midwest AI Buildout Accelerates

The approval of the Joliet Technology Center signals that the Chicago region is being pulled into the Midwest’s next phase of AI infrastructure development, one that has so far been led by Ohio and defined by scale, power demand, and rising public scrutiny. It also underscores a growing reality: local governments are beginning to understand exactly what that shift entails. On March 19, 2026, the Joliet City Council voted 8–1 to approve the conditional annexation of roughly 795 acres for the proposed Joliet Technology Center, a $20 billion data center campus backed by Hillwood and PowerHouse Data Centers. The site, near Rowell and Bernhard Roads on Joliet’s east side, is planned as a 24-building, multi-phase development that would rank among the most consequential digital infrastructure projects ever approved in Illinois. Joliet is now a clear case study in how the Midwest’s data center market is evolving: massive land assemblies, utility-scale power requirements, front-loaded community concessions, increasingly organized local opposition, and regulators working to ensure that the costs of AI infrastructure are not shifted onto ratepayers. A Project Too Large to Call Routine The Joliet Technology Center is a campus-scale industrial platform built for the AI era. Plans call for 24 two-story buildings of roughly 144,500 square feet each, with total development estimated at approximately 6.9 million square feet and up to 1.8 GW of eventual capacity. That places the project firmly in the emerging “AI factory” category, e.g. far-removed from the incremental, metro-edge data center expansions that defined earlier growth cycles. The distinction is critical. AI-scale campuses operate on a different economic and technical model. Fiber access and metro proximity are no longer enough. These developments require large, contiguous power blocks, land to support phased substation and utility infrastructure, and a political framework capable of absorbing what is effectively heavy

Read More »

AI is a Positive Catalyst for Grid Growth

Data centers, particularly those optimized for artificial intelligence workloads, are frequently characterized in public discourse as a disruptive threat to grid stability and ratepayer affordability. But behind-the-narrative as we are, the AI‑driven data center growth is simply illuminating pre‑existing systemic weaknesses in electric infrastructure that have accumulated over more than a decade of underinvestment in transmission, substations, and interconnection capacity. Over the same period, many utilities operated under planning assumptions shaped by slow demand growth and regulatory frameworks that incentivized incremental upgrades rather than large, anticipatory capital programs. As a result, the emergence of gigawatt‑scale computing campuses appears to be a sudden shock to a system that, in reality, was already misaligned with long‑term decarbonization, electrification, and digitalization objectives. Utilities have been asked to do more with aging grids, slow permitting, and chronically constrained capital, and now AI and cloud are finally putting real urgency — and real investment — behind modernizing that backbone. In that sense, large‑scale compute is not the problem; it is the catalyst that makes it impossible to ignore the problem any longer. We are at a moment when data centers, and especially AI data centers, are being blamed for exposing weaknesses that were already there, when in reality they are giving society a chance to fix a power system that has been underbuilt for more than a decade. Utilities have been asked to do more with aging grids, slow permitting, and limited investment, and now AI and cloud are finally putting real urgency — and real capital — behind modernizing that backbone. In that sense, data centers aren’t the problem; they are the catalyst that makes it impossible to ignore the problem any longer. AI Demand Provided a Long‑Overdue Stress Test The nature of AI workloads intensified this dynamic. High‑performance computing clusters concentrate substantial power

Read More »

From Land Grab to Structured Scale: Kirkland & Ellis Explains How Capital, Power, and Deal Complexity Are Defining the AI Data Center Boom

The AI data center market is no longer defined by speed alone. For much of the past three years, capital moved aggressively into digital infrastructure, chasing land, power, and platform scale as generative AI workloads began to reshape demand curves. But as Melissa Kalka, M&A and private equity partner, and Kimberly McGrath, real estate partner at Kirkland & Ellis, explain on the latest episode of the Data Center Frontier Show, the industry is now entering a more complex and more consequential phase. The land grab is over. Execution has begun. Capital remains abundant, but it is no longer forgiving. From Capital Rush to Capital Discipline As noted by Kalka and McGrath, the period from roughly 2022 through 2025 marked a rapid acceleration in AI infrastructure investment. Take-private deals involving CyrusOne, QTS, and Switch signaled a structural shift, while hyperscale demand scaled from tens of megawatts to hundreds, and now toward gigawatt-class campuses. But the current phase is not defined by a pullback in capital. Instead, it reflects an expansion of investment pathways and a corresponding increase in scrutiny. “There’s actually more deal flow now,” Kalka notes, pointing to the growing range of entry points across the capital stack, including development vehicles, yield-oriented structures, and private credit. With more capital chasing larger and more complex opportunities, investors are evaluating not just platforms, but the full lifecycle of assets from early-stage development through stabilization and long-term hold. That shift has pulled capital earlier into the process, where risk is higher and less defined. Power availability, permitting, and execution timelines are now central to underwriting decisions. What Defines a “Bankable” Platform In this environment, the definition of a bankable data center platform has tightened. Execution history remains foundational. Investors are looking for consistent delivery, operational reliability, and clean contractual performance. But those factors alone

Read More »

Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

Read More »

John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

Read More »

2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

Read More »

OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

Read More »
More Articles