
Treasuries gained Monday, supported by a slump in oil prices and a rally in UK government bonds, and by anticipation of buying into Tuesday’s month-end index rebalancing.
Yields declined as much as five basis points across tenors with the 10-year note’s falling to 4.14%. The 30-year bond’s dipped below 4.70% for the first time since Sept. 18. US benchmark crude oil futures dropped more than 4% on signs OPEC+ will hike production again in November.
The prospect of a US government shutdown beginning Wednesday also has implications for the Treasuries market, as shutdowns are associated with gains for bonds based on their potential to restrain the economy.
“There’s a global move lower today in yields,” said Angelo Manolatos, an interest-rate strategist at Wells Fargo Securities. “It’s likely a combination of quarter-end flow dynamics and the possibility of a government shutdown. Yields typically drop modestly during government shutdowns that last at least five days.”
The market racked up gains even as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — who becomes a voting member of the central bank’s rate-setting committee next year — reiterated her view that inflation remains too high to warrant cutting interest rates. Futures markets continue to anticipate about 100 basis points of additional Fed easing over the next 12 months.
Expectations for Fed rate cuts rest mainly on signs of stress in the US labor market, where job creation has slowed precipitously in recent months. September data is set to be released on Friday.
Tuesday’s month-end bond index rebalancing — to add eligible bonds created during the month and remove those that no longer fit the index criteria — typically drives buying by passive and other index-tracking investment funds that can support the market if their needs exceed expectations.
The rebalancing will increase the duration of the Bloomberg Treasury index by an estimated 0.06 year, less than the average for September over the past decade.
“A better tone in European bond markets, softness in energy prices, and quarterly portfolio rebalancing have likely contributed to Monday’s modest bull flattening in US Treasury yields,” said Chris Ahrens, a strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co.
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