
Russian refinery runs remain near July 2026 lows and are likely to recover only gradually from September onward. Russia’s ban on diesel exports has already removed 10% of waterborne supply from the global market. Further decline in Russian refinery runs could amplify the risk to global diesel markets by leading Russia to import fuel to backfill domestic needs, compounding the outright loss of the near 1 million b/d of diesel exports.
Limited spare capacity raises winter risks
Meanwhile, the world’s remaining unconstrained refining capacity is already running at close to maximum levels. Refinery utilization in the US has approached 97% this summer, while Europe and North America continue to operate at or near multi-decade highs in response to record margins. The industry is now approaching fall turnaround season with a significant incentive to keep pushing and little spare capacity left to offset unexpected disruptions.
“The market has survived the first phase of the crisis because inventories, trade flows, and refinery flexibility absorbed much of the shock. Those shock absorbers are not disappearing, but they are becoming progressively weaker. Markets are entering winter with less room for error than they had in the spring,” said Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research, S&P Global Energy.
For governments and policymakers, the challenge is increasingly likely to center on balancing energy price affordability, inflation, and security of supply. High diesel prices directly impact costs for freight transport, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and residential heating. Although the market has so far avoided an outright supply crisis, persistently low inventories, high prices, and limited spare capacity have heightened the risk of government interventions.
Diesel remains the fuel most vulnerable to shortages. With a surge in demand during the harvest season, the approach of winter heating needs, depleted inventories, and no immediate prospect of supply recovery, the market’s margin for error is rapidly shrinking; even minor supply fluctuations could cause the market to shift from a state of extreme tightness to outright collapse.
“Policymakers may soon face uncomfortable tradeoffs. Protecting consumers from higher fuel costs, preserving energy security and maintaining open trade flows becomes increasingly difficult when the world is short available refining capacity. The longer this disruption lasts, the harder those choices become,” Fawaz said.





















