
Enduring policy uncertainty means players are primarily reacting to price and focusing more on the short term, which showed in the Fed’s questions about capex. More than 51% of E&P executives said they are ramping up spending this quarter, an increase of nearly 12 points from Q1, while only 8% are pulling back. But asked about pushing on from there and increasing capex next year, 10% said they will do so and 80% said they’ll not change their budget in 2027.
“It is going to take more time to assess to what degree the energy business and markets are permanently reordered,” one E&P executive said. “We certainly have learned that it doesn’t matter how much crude you can produce; it is meaningless if you can’t get it to your customer in the normal course of business.”
Asked about where they think prices are headed, the industry players see West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil averaging of $81/bbl at the end of this year and generally staying in that range for the next 5 years. (The price of a barrel of WTI averaged about $87 while the Fed’s survey was in the field and has since fallen to roughly $70.)
Respondents expect the Henry Hub natural gas price, which averaged $3.15/MMbtu during the survey period, to be $3.36/MMbtu by year’s end and $3.75/MMbtu 2 years from now. Those numbers are down from the forecasts of 3 months ago.
For more information from the Fed’s report, click here.


















