In an exclusive interview with Rigzone on Tuesday, Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth in New York, said crude was “bid” yesterday morning “on a mix of fundamentals, geopolitics, and positioning”. “The physical market remains tighter than expected for this time of year, with time spreads holding up well,” Babin told Rigzone. “In addition, OPEC exports have been undershooting expectations while demand numbers have been revised higher, giving more credence to strong underlying fundamentals,” Babin added. “Ukrainian strikes are beginning to impact Russian exports, adding to the geopolitical risk premium, and recent comments on potential Russian sanctions are further reinforcing that theme,” Babin continued, noting that, “at the same time, hopes for a ceasefire are fading”. Babin told Rigzone that positioning has also reset meaningfully. “Net long WTI exposure is at levels we haven’t seen since 2007-08, driven by twice as many new shorts as longs last week,” Babin said. “Taken together, I think the move higher in crude is justified, even against a softer macro backdrop,” Babin added. Rigzone has contacted OPEC, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Press Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment on Babin’s statement. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone. In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group late Tuesday, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, projected that the Brent crude oil price will average $68 per barrel in 2025, $67 per barrel in 2026, and $70 per barrel across 2027, 2028, and 2029. A Bloomberg consensus included in the report projected that Brent will average $68 per barrel this year, $65 per barrel next year, and $70 per barrel across 2027, 2028, and 2029. BMI highlighted in

Deutsche Energy Terminal GmbH’s (DET) second liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Wilhelmshaven, Germany, has started commercial operations. The Wilhelmshaven 02 terminal, along with the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) Excelsior, is fully operational and able to contribute to filling gas storage facilities before the next heating season, DET said in a news release. Excelsior, built in 2005 by Excelerate Energy, is 909 feet (277 meters) long and has a storage capacity of 4.9 million cubic feet (138,000 cubic meters), with a regasification capacity of up to 500 million standard cubic feet per day. Located on the Wilhelmshaven 2 pier with access to the North Sea, the vessel is under a five-year charter by DET, the company said. Regasification capacity for the rest of the year and 2026 was fully allocated to traders, DET said. In 2025, Excelsior will feed up to 1.9 billion cubic meters of natural gas into the German gas grid. This corresponds to the annual natural gas consumption for heating 1.5 million four-person households in multi-family homes, DET said. In the next two years, Excelsior’s regasification and grid feed-in capacity will then reach up to 4.6 billion cubic meters each, equivalent to the annual heating energy required by up to 3.7 million four-person households, according to the release. DET Managing Director Peter Röttgen said, “Wilhelmshaven 02 combines several technologies that are unique in Germany and Europe, from the FSRU to onshore feed-in. On the one hand, there is ECOnnect’s flexible pipeline system for the direct transfer of natural gas to land without a pipe bridge. This has significantly reduced the impact on the seabed ecosystem. On the other hand, the ultrasonic process for cleaning the FSRU’s seawater pipeline system, which is unique in Europe, has now been put into operation. We would like to thank

OPEC+ is in the process of retaking market share, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), and Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Tuesday.  “Oil prices are likely to fall for a fourth straight year as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and retakes market share,” the analysts said in the report. “We expect Brent crude to average $55 per barrel in Q4/25 before OPEC+ steps in to stabilize the market into 2026,” they added. “Surplus, stock building, oil prices are under pressure with OPEC+ calling the shots as to how rough it wants to play it,” they went on to state. The SEB analysts noted in the report that OPEC+ is in a process of unwinding voluntary cuts by a sub-group of the members and taking back market share but added that the process looks set to be different from 2014-16, “as the group doesn’t look likely to blindly lift production to take back market share”. “The group has stated very explicitly that it can just as well cut production as increase it ahead,” Hvalbye and Schieldrop pointed out in the report. “While the oil price is unlikely to drop as violently and lasting as in 2014-16, it will likely fall further before the group steps in with fresh cuts to stabilize the price,” they warned. “We expect Brent to fall to $55 per barrel in Q4/25 before the group steps in with fresh cuts at the end of the year,” they continued. In a market comment sent to Rigzone on Friday, Van Ha Trinh, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, said, “the increase in OPEC output during September has reinforced concerns about oversupply”. “While a potential pause in production hikes after that could provide

Libya’s state-run energy company is proposing reviving a multibillion-dollar natural gas project to ease electricity shortages, a move that may also be a boon for a rival administration in the country’s east. The National Oil Corp. wants its unit Arabian Gulf Oil Co. to develop discovered gas deposits in the NC-7 block in western Libya, potentially in collaboration with consortium partners Eni SpA, TotalEnergies SE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Turkish Petroleum Corp., according to a letter from the NOC to Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, the prime minister of Libya’s internationally recognized government. The project would, however, be overseen by a new company established in Benghazi in the east, according to the letter. Such an arrangement would be beneficial for the eastern administration which has often complained about not getting its fair share of energy revenue, resulting in frequent disruptions to the country’s vast oil production. Tapping Libya’s gas resources, estimated at about 53 trillion cubic feet according to the US Energy Information Administration, is becoming crucial for authorities to meet export commitments and rising local demand. NC-7 would be one of the biggest new projects in the country, according to the report. But a previous plan to develop the discoveries stalled in 2023 after Libyan objections to the share of profits that would be granted to overseas companies.  Eni, TotalEnergies and Adnoc declined to comment on the NOC letter, a copy of which was seen by Bloomberg. Libyan energy officials didn’t respond to requests for comment, nor did Turkey’s energy ministry, which controls Turkish Petroleum Corp. Libya, riven by conflict since the toppling of longtime leader Moammar Al Qaddafi in 2011, is split between Dbeibah’s government in Tripoli in the country’s west, and a rival administration in Benghazi. The two sides frequently feud over energy revenue, leading to shutdowns

The European Commission has added five to the list of cross-border renewable energy projects (CB RES) eligible for financing under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) for Energy program, expanding the list to 13 projects. “The five projects, thanks to the official CB RES status, are now eligible for financial support for studies and works under the CEF Energy Program”, the Commission said in a statement on its website. “Furthermore, they benefit from higher visibility, increased investor certainty and stronger support from member states”. The newly recognized projects involve the Baltic states, North Africa, Germany, Poland and Portugal. To rise on the Estonian side of the Baltic Sea, the Liivi Bay Offshore Wind Farm will be radially connected to the national grid with a capacity of one gigawatt (GW). It is expected to go online 2031. “The wind farm will contribute to Estonia’s goal of producing 100 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030, while also supporting Latvia’s energy transition”, the Commission said. Straddling the Latvia-Lithuania border, the onshore Utilitas Eleja-Jonisķis Wind Park is expected to deliver 200 megawatts from 2028. “The project is strategically located to connect to the 330 kV Viskaļi-Musa transmission line, enhancing regional grid stability and energy independence”, the Commission said. Meanwhile the Twin Heat project will decarbonize the district heating systems of the twin cities of Slubice, Poland, and Frankfurt, Germany. Renewables-based heating infrastructure enabling cross-border heat exchange will be installed. The latest additions to the CB RES list also include a research project that “paves the way for groundwork for future cross-border deployment of floating offshore wind energy in Portugal in a cooperation with Luxembourg”, the Commission said. “It will assess offshore wind zones, grid reinforcements and auction models, helping to unlock up to 10 GW of offshore wind capacity in Portugal. The project also fosters collaboration around

Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) has posted revenues of MYR 132.6 billion ($31.4 billion) for the first half of 2025, versus $41 billion for H1 2024. The company, in its report, attributed the decline to discontinued operations from the Engen Group divestment in May 2024, as well as unfavorable foreign exchange. Petronas also cited lower average realized prices from petroleum products, crude oil, and condensates following the downward trend in benchmark prices. Profit after tax was $6.2 billion, dropping 19 percent from H1 2024. EBITDA totaled $12.8 billion, lower by 15 percent in line with lower profits, Petronas said. “Petronas remains unwavering in our commitment to strengthen our business and portfolio resilience for long-term growth amid an increasingly challenging macro environment in the first half of 2025”, Muhammad Taufik, Petronas President and Group CEO. “Through the focused execution of our Energy Transition Strategy, portfolio optimization and prudent capital management, we are expediting a critical transformation to continue delivering energy safely, reliably and sustainably to those we serve”. Petronas said it expects oil prices to remain low due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainties in the macroeconomic landscape, changing regulatory conditions, and the swift reversal of OPEC+ production cuts, which will continually alter global energy dynamics and trade patterns. Petronas said it is focusing on providing advantaged hydrocarbons with reduced costs and emissions. This initiative is supported by numerous upstream discoveries and developments, especially in Malaysia, Suriname, Indonesia, and Angola, it said. The inaugural liquefied natural gas cargo from the LNG Canada facility also marked a strategic expansion of Petronas’ supply footprint. Petronas said it is enhancing its integrated low-carbon value chain through focused investments in solar energy and energy solutions hubs. To contact the author, email [email protected] What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the Rigzone