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bp produces first oil from Gulf expansion, its seventh major upstream startup in 2025
bp plc has produced first oil from the Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion project in the US Gulf of Mexico 2 months ahead of its original schedule. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion, bp’s seventh major upstream startup for the year, adds two wells to an existing drill center. The subsea tieback extends the footprint of Atlantis field, which was discovered in 1998. The project is expected to add 15,000 boe/d gross peak annualized average production from the Atlantis moored floating platform, which operates in more than 7,000 ft of water about 150 miles south of New Orleans with production capacity of about 200,000 b/d of oil and 180 MMcfd. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion is the second in a series of projects bp is planning in the US Gulf to boost production capacity to more than 400,000 boe/d from the region by 2030. Prior to the Atlantis Drill Center 1 project, bp started up major projects this year in Trinidad and Tobago, the UK North Sea, Egypt, Mauritania and Senegal, as well as Argos Southwest Expansion in the Gulf of Mexico. bp is operator at Atlantis (56%) with partner Woodside Energy (44%).

IEA revises oil demand forecast upward on improving economic outlook
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 830,000 b/d in 2025, supported by an improving macroeconomic and trade environment, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s December Oil Market Monthly Report (OMR). This was reflected by resurgent third-quarter demand of 1.1 million b/d, more than doubling from the second-quarter’s underwhelming 450,000 b/d. “After a spate of breakthrough US trade deals were reached over the summer, economic sentiment rebounded quickly, helping emerging and developing economies return to their pre-April trend. Still, the tariff turbulence has essentially rendered 2025 second-quarter a lost quarter for non-OECD oil consumption and the as yet unresolved negotiations over tariffs with a number of countries will continue to weigh on markets,” IEA said. The stronger outlook also carries into 2026, where IEA has raised its demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d year-on-year (y-o-y). Falling oil prices, along with the weaker US dollar—both of which are currently hovering around 4-year lows—will likely boost oil demand in the coming year. “Gasoil and jet/kerosene together make up half of this year’s growth, while fuel oil continues to lose share to natural gas and solar in power generation. In 2026, petrochemical feedstocks will drive the bulk of demand expansion, with their share rising to more than 60%, up from 40% in 2025,” IEA continued. On the supply side, global oil supply dropped by 610,000 b/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to 107.5 million b/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record high of 109 million b/d. OPEC+ accounted for 80% of the decline over the 2-month period, reflecting significant unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, while output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela contracted sharply. Meantime, Russian oil exports fell by 420,000 b/d in November, and together with weaker prices, reduced export revenues to $11 billion—$3.6 billion less than a

Navitas takes FID for field development offshore Falkland Islands
Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd. (NPDP) has taken a final investment decision (FID) on Phase 1 development of Sea Lion oil field about 220 km to the north of the Falkland Islands. The Falkland Islands government has approved the field development and production program for Phases 1 and 2 of the Northern Development Area within the field. Following the approvals, the licenses covering Sea Lion will move into the Exploitation Phase, which lasts 35 years, or longer if needed to complete production. The total post-FID funding requirement is $1.8 billion to first oil and $2.1 billion to project completion (including contingencies and financing costs). Phase 1 targets 170 million bbl at a peak production of about 50,000 b/d. This initial stage consists of drilling 11 subsea wells tied back to a redeployed floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel. The first well is not expected to be spudded for over 12 months, and first oil is currently planned for 2028. Phase 2 is expected to add another 12 wells and recover a further gross 2C resource of 149 million bbl. Sea Lion has 319 million bbl of certified resources and total gross full field 2C resource of 917 million bbl, with 727 million bbl categorized as development pending. As part of the Phase 1 sanction, Navitas has entered into a number of commercial contracts, including an FPSO charter agreement, drilling rig contract, a framework agreement for the supply of drilling and completion services, and an agreement for the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of subsea umbilicals, risers, and flowlines. NPDP is operator of Sea Lion (65%) with partner Rockhopper Exploration plc (35%).

bp, Woodside, Murphy, Beacon big winners in Gulf lease sale
She declined to say whether BOEM was surprised by the level of interest given crude oil prices in the $60/bbl range or if the sale bodes well for lease sales in the newly opened areas offshore Alaska and the West Coast, noting that the bureau, a division of the US Interior Department, needs to fully analyze the results. Lease sale high bids BP Exploration and Production Inc., Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc., Murphy Exploration & Production Co.– USA, and Beacon Offshore Energy Exploration LLC were the sale’s big spenders, as apparent winners with $60 million, $38 million, $33 million, and $27 million in leases, respectively. Chevron submitted the sale’s single highest bid of $18.5 million for Keathley Canyon block 25, prevailing over two other bidders. This was one of eight tracts receiving three bids; 22 other blocks received two bids. Keathley Canyon, which lies in the ultradeep waters of the northern Gulf offshore the Texas-Louisiana shelf, is home to Lucius, Tiber, and Kaskida fields that feature deepwater pipelines, like the Keathley Canyon Connector. Chevron Corp. and other oil majors are active in the area. Woodside and Repsol OCS LLC offered the two next-highest bids: $15.2 million for Walker Ridge 443 and $12.2 million for the adjacent Walker Ridge 444. Those tracks received two and three bids, respectively. Walker Ridge, about 150-280 km (90-170 miles) south-southwest of the Louisiana coast, features large projects like Shenandoah and Big Foot in ultradeep waters of 1,700-3,000 m. The companies also teamed up to win a $4.2-million bid for Walker Ridge 488. The area saw many of the highest-priced bids, including by BP Equinor USA E&P Inc., Talos Energy Offshore, Murphy, and Chevron, with winning bids from $1.1 million to $7 million. Chevron, Shell Offshore Inc., and Beacon were among the most active bidders in Green

Macquarie: Oil oversupply deepens as inventory growth accelerates
The global crude market remains firmly oversupplied, and current trends point to an increasingly imbalanced supply–demand environment through late-2025 and into early-2026. According to a note from Macquarie Group, a peak surplus of more than 4 million b/d is expected by first-quarter 2026. Signs of the surplus are showing with continued offshore builds, increasing onshore builds, and extremely strong freight rates, said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist, Macquarie. Offshore crude inventories have surged by roughly 250 million bbl since late August, while onshore storage has risen by about 30 million bbl over the same period. Over the past month alone, combined offshore and onshore builds have accelerated to nearly 3 million b/d. Despite these rapid stock increases, the forward curve remains in backwardation—supported by continued Atlantic-to-Asia flows. Roughly one-third of offshore builds are linked to long-haul shipments originating from the Americas and moving toward Asia, tying up floating storage and delaying the impact on onshore tanks. However, as these volumes eventually discharge, the market expects visible onshore builds to accelerate—particularly in Asia first, followed by the US and Europe, the report said. “We expect onshore builds to accelerate through year 2025 and into early 2026, a process which should drive Brent towards the low $50 range with a possibility of reaching $45/bbl,” Macquarie reported. Market signals Crude tanker freight rates are exceptionally high amid limited vessel availability. If rates climb further, key arbitrage pathways could shut, forcing more crude into onshore storage. Conversely, once cargoes discharge and vessels are freed up, freight rates could correct lower—another step that typically precedes visible inventory builds. “Either way, a freight sell off should lead rising storage statistics,” Macquarie said. Meantime, price pressure is now spreading across core benchmarks. North Sea markers have softened, while key Brent-linked grades such as West African barrels and

EIA: US oil inventories drop 1.8 million bbl
US commercial crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 5, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped 1.8 million bbl from the previous week to 425.7 million bbl, which is about 4% below the average range for this time of year, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Total motor gasoline inventories gained 6.4 million bbl last week and are about 1% below the 5-year average range for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories rose. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million bbl but are 7% below the 5-year average for this time of year. EIA reported that US crude refinery inputs last week averaged 16.9 million b/d, down 17,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.5% of their operable capacity. Gasoline production decreased to 9.6 million b/d, while distillate fuel production increased by 380,000 b/d, averaging 5.4 million b/d. US crude imports averaged 6.6 million b/d, up 609,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Over the last 4 weeks, crude imports averaged 6.2 million b/d, down 7.7% from the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, averaged 659,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 181,000 b/d last week.

bp produces first oil from Gulf expansion, its seventh major upstream startup in 2025
bp plc has produced first oil from the Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion project in the US Gulf of Mexico 2 months ahead of its original schedule. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion, bp’s seventh major upstream startup for the year, adds two wells to an existing drill center. The subsea tieback extends the footprint of Atlantis field, which was discovered in 1998. The project is expected to add 15,000 boe/d gross peak annualized average production from the Atlantis moored floating platform, which operates in more than 7,000 ft of water about 150 miles south of New Orleans with production capacity of about 200,000 b/d of oil and 180 MMcfd. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion is the second in a series of projects bp is planning in the US Gulf to boost production capacity to more than 400,000 boe/d from the region by 2030. Prior to the Atlantis Drill Center 1 project, bp started up major projects this year in Trinidad and Tobago, the UK North Sea, Egypt, Mauritania and Senegal, as well as Argos Southwest Expansion in the Gulf of Mexico. bp is operator at Atlantis (56%) with partner Woodside Energy (44%).

IEA revises oil demand forecast upward on improving economic outlook
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 830,000 b/d in 2025, supported by an improving macroeconomic and trade environment, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s December Oil Market Monthly Report (OMR). This was reflected by resurgent third-quarter demand of 1.1 million b/d, more than doubling from the second-quarter’s underwhelming 450,000 b/d. “After a spate of breakthrough US trade deals were reached over the summer, economic sentiment rebounded quickly, helping emerging and developing economies return to their pre-April trend. Still, the tariff turbulence has essentially rendered 2025 second-quarter a lost quarter for non-OECD oil consumption and the as yet unresolved negotiations over tariffs with a number of countries will continue to weigh on markets,” IEA said. The stronger outlook also carries into 2026, where IEA has raised its demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d year-on-year (y-o-y). Falling oil prices, along with the weaker US dollar—both of which are currently hovering around 4-year lows—will likely boost oil demand in the coming year. “Gasoil and jet/kerosene together make up half of this year’s growth, while fuel oil continues to lose share to natural gas and solar in power generation. In 2026, petrochemical feedstocks will drive the bulk of demand expansion, with their share rising to more than 60%, up from 40% in 2025,” IEA continued. On the supply side, global oil supply dropped by 610,000 b/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to 107.5 million b/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record high of 109 million b/d. OPEC+ accounted for 80% of the decline over the 2-month period, reflecting significant unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, while output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela contracted sharply. Meantime, Russian oil exports fell by 420,000 b/d in November, and together with weaker prices, reduced export revenues to $11 billion—$3.6 billion less than a

Navitas takes FID for field development offshore Falkland Islands
Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd. (NPDP) has taken a final investment decision (FID) on Phase 1 development of Sea Lion oil field about 220 km to the north of the Falkland Islands. The Falkland Islands government has approved the field development and production program for Phases 1 and 2 of the Northern Development Area within the field. Following the approvals, the licenses covering Sea Lion will move into the Exploitation Phase, which lasts 35 years, or longer if needed to complete production. The total post-FID funding requirement is $1.8 billion to first oil and $2.1 billion to project completion (including contingencies and financing costs). Phase 1 targets 170 million bbl at a peak production of about 50,000 b/d. This initial stage consists of drilling 11 subsea wells tied back to a redeployed floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel. The first well is not expected to be spudded for over 12 months, and first oil is currently planned for 2028. Phase 2 is expected to add another 12 wells and recover a further gross 2C resource of 149 million bbl. Sea Lion has 319 million bbl of certified resources and total gross full field 2C resource of 917 million bbl, with 727 million bbl categorized as development pending. As part of the Phase 1 sanction, Navitas has entered into a number of commercial contracts, including an FPSO charter agreement, drilling rig contract, a framework agreement for the supply of drilling and completion services, and an agreement for the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of subsea umbilicals, risers, and flowlines. NPDP is operator of Sea Lion (65%) with partner Rockhopper Exploration plc (35%).

bp, Woodside, Murphy, Beacon big winners in Gulf lease sale
She declined to say whether BOEM was surprised by the level of interest given crude oil prices in the $60/bbl range or if the sale bodes well for lease sales in the newly opened areas offshore Alaska and the West Coast, noting that the bureau, a division of the US Interior Department, needs to fully analyze the results. Lease sale high bids BP Exploration and Production Inc., Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc., Murphy Exploration & Production Co.– USA, and Beacon Offshore Energy Exploration LLC were the sale’s big spenders, as apparent winners with $60 million, $38 million, $33 million, and $27 million in leases, respectively. Chevron submitted the sale’s single highest bid of $18.5 million for Keathley Canyon block 25, prevailing over two other bidders. This was one of eight tracts receiving three bids; 22 other blocks received two bids. Keathley Canyon, which lies in the ultradeep waters of the northern Gulf offshore the Texas-Louisiana shelf, is home to Lucius, Tiber, and Kaskida fields that feature deepwater pipelines, like the Keathley Canyon Connector. Chevron Corp. and other oil majors are active in the area. Woodside and Repsol OCS LLC offered the two next-highest bids: $15.2 million for Walker Ridge 443 and $12.2 million for the adjacent Walker Ridge 444. Those tracks received two and three bids, respectively. Walker Ridge, about 150-280 km (90-170 miles) south-southwest of the Louisiana coast, features large projects like Shenandoah and Big Foot in ultradeep waters of 1,700-3,000 m. The companies also teamed up to win a $4.2-million bid for Walker Ridge 488. The area saw many of the highest-priced bids, including by BP Equinor USA E&P Inc., Talos Energy Offshore, Murphy, and Chevron, with winning bids from $1.1 million to $7 million. Chevron, Shell Offshore Inc., and Beacon were among the most active bidders in Green

Macquarie: Oil oversupply deepens as inventory growth accelerates
The global crude market remains firmly oversupplied, and current trends point to an increasingly imbalanced supply–demand environment through late-2025 and into early-2026. According to a note from Macquarie Group, a peak surplus of more than 4 million b/d is expected by first-quarter 2026. Signs of the surplus are showing with continued offshore builds, increasing onshore builds, and extremely strong freight rates, said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist, Macquarie. Offshore crude inventories have surged by roughly 250 million bbl since late August, while onshore storage has risen by about 30 million bbl over the same period. Over the past month alone, combined offshore and onshore builds have accelerated to nearly 3 million b/d. Despite these rapid stock increases, the forward curve remains in backwardation—supported by continued Atlantic-to-Asia flows. Roughly one-third of offshore builds are linked to long-haul shipments originating from the Americas and moving toward Asia, tying up floating storage and delaying the impact on onshore tanks. However, as these volumes eventually discharge, the market expects visible onshore builds to accelerate—particularly in Asia first, followed by the US and Europe, the report said. “We expect onshore builds to accelerate through year 2025 and into early 2026, a process which should drive Brent towards the low $50 range with a possibility of reaching $45/bbl,” Macquarie reported. Market signals Crude tanker freight rates are exceptionally high amid limited vessel availability. If rates climb further, key arbitrage pathways could shut, forcing more crude into onshore storage. Conversely, once cargoes discharge and vessels are freed up, freight rates could correct lower—another step that typically precedes visible inventory builds. “Either way, a freight sell off should lead rising storage statistics,” Macquarie said. Meantime, price pressure is now spreading across core benchmarks. North Sea markers have softened, while key Brent-linked grades such as West African barrels and

EIA: US oil inventories drop 1.8 million bbl
US commercial crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 5, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped 1.8 million bbl from the previous week to 425.7 million bbl, which is about 4% below the average range for this time of year, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Total motor gasoline inventories gained 6.4 million bbl last week and are about 1% below the 5-year average range for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories rose. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million bbl but are 7% below the 5-year average for this time of year. EIA reported that US crude refinery inputs last week averaged 16.9 million b/d, down 17,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.5% of their operable capacity. Gasoline production decreased to 9.6 million b/d, while distillate fuel production increased by 380,000 b/d, averaging 5.4 million b/d. US crude imports averaged 6.6 million b/d, up 609,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Over the last 4 weeks, crude imports averaged 6.2 million b/d, down 7.7% from the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, averaged 659,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 181,000 b/d last week.

EIA: US oil inventories drop 1.8 million bbl
US commercial crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 5, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped 1.8 million bbl from the previous week to 425.7 million bbl, which is about 4% below the average range for this time of year, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Total motor gasoline inventories gained 6.4 million bbl last week and are about 1% below the 5-year average range for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories rose. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million bbl but are 7% below the 5-year average for this time of year. EIA reported that US crude refinery inputs last week averaged 16.9 million b/d, down 17,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.5% of their operable capacity. Gasoline production decreased to 9.6 million b/d, while distillate fuel production increased by 380,000 b/d, averaging 5.4 million b/d. US crude imports averaged 6.6 million b/d, up 609,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Over the last 4 weeks, crude imports averaged 6.2 million b/d, down 7.7% from the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, averaged 659,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 181,000 b/d last week.

Macquarie: Oil oversupply deepens as inventory growth accelerates
The global crude market remains firmly oversupplied, and current trends point to an increasingly imbalanced supply–demand environment through late-2025 and into early-2026. According to a note from Macquarie Group, a peak surplus of more than 4 million b/d is expected by first-quarter 2026. Signs of the surplus are showing with continued offshore builds, increasing onshore builds, and extremely strong freight rates, said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist, Macquarie. Offshore crude inventories have surged by roughly 250 million bbl since late August, while onshore storage has risen by about 30 million bbl over the same period. Over the past month alone, combined offshore and onshore builds have accelerated to nearly 3 million b/d. Despite these rapid stock increases, the forward curve remains in backwardation—supported by continued Atlantic-to-Asia flows. Roughly one-third of offshore builds are linked to long-haul shipments originating from the Americas and moving toward Asia, tying up floating storage and delaying the impact on onshore tanks. However, as these volumes eventually discharge, the market expects visible onshore builds to accelerate—particularly in Asia first, followed by the US and Europe, the report said. “We expect onshore builds to accelerate through year 2025 and into early 2026, a process which should drive Brent towards the low $50 range with a possibility of reaching $45/bbl,” Macquarie reported. Market signals Crude tanker freight rates are exceptionally high amid limited vessel availability. If rates climb further, key arbitrage pathways could shut, forcing more crude into onshore storage. Conversely, once cargoes discharge and vessels are freed up, freight rates could correct lower—another step that typically precedes visible inventory builds. “Either way, a freight sell off should lead rising storage statistics,” Macquarie said. Meantime, price pressure is now spreading across core benchmarks. North Sea markers have softened, while key Brent-linked grades such as West African barrels and

bp, Woodside, Murphy, Beacon big winners in Gulf lease sale
She declined to say whether BOEM was surprised by the level of interest given crude oil prices in the $60/bbl range or if the sale bodes well for lease sales in the newly opened areas offshore Alaska and the West Coast, noting that the bureau, a division of the US Interior Department, needs to fully analyze the results. Lease sale high bids BP Exploration and Production Inc., Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc., Murphy Exploration & Production Co.– USA, and Beacon Offshore Energy Exploration LLC were the sale’s big spenders, as apparent winners with $60 million, $38 million, $33 million, and $27 million in leases, respectively. Chevron submitted the sale’s single highest bid of $18.5 million for Keathley Canyon block 25, prevailing over two other bidders. This was one of eight tracts receiving three bids; 22 other blocks received two bids. Keathley Canyon, which lies in the ultradeep waters of the northern Gulf offshore the Texas-Louisiana shelf, is home to Lucius, Tiber, and Kaskida fields that feature deepwater pipelines, like the Keathley Canyon Connector. Chevron Corp. and other oil majors are active in the area. Woodside and Repsol OCS LLC offered the two next-highest bids: $15.2 million for Walker Ridge 443 and $12.2 million for the adjacent Walker Ridge 444. Those tracks received two and three bids, respectively. Walker Ridge, about 150-280 km (90-170 miles) south-southwest of the Louisiana coast, features large projects like Shenandoah and Big Foot in ultradeep waters of 1,700-3,000 m. The companies also teamed up to win a $4.2-million bid for Walker Ridge 488. The area saw many of the highest-priced bids, including by BP Equinor USA E&P Inc., Talos Energy Offshore, Murphy, and Chevron, with winning bids from $1.1 million to $7 million. Chevron, Shell Offshore Inc., and Beacon were among the most active bidders in Green

Navitas takes FID for field development offshore Falkland Islands
Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd. (NPDP) has taken a final investment decision (FID) on Phase 1 development of Sea Lion oil field about 220 km to the north of the Falkland Islands. The Falkland Islands government has approved the field development and production program for Phases 1 and 2 of the Northern Development Area within the field. Following the approvals, the licenses covering Sea Lion will move into the Exploitation Phase, which lasts 35 years, or longer if needed to complete production. The total post-FID funding requirement is $1.8 billion to first oil and $2.1 billion to project completion (including contingencies and financing costs). Phase 1 targets 170 million bbl at a peak production of about 50,000 b/d. This initial stage consists of drilling 11 subsea wells tied back to a redeployed floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel. The first well is not expected to be spudded for over 12 months, and first oil is currently planned for 2028. Phase 2 is expected to add another 12 wells and recover a further gross 2C resource of 149 million bbl. Sea Lion has 319 million bbl of certified resources and total gross full field 2C resource of 917 million bbl, with 727 million bbl categorized as development pending. As part of the Phase 1 sanction, Navitas has entered into a number of commercial contracts, including an FPSO charter agreement, drilling rig contract, a framework agreement for the supply of drilling and completion services, and an agreement for the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of subsea umbilicals, risers, and flowlines. NPDP is operator of Sea Lion (65%) with partner Rockhopper Exploration plc (35%).

IEA revises oil demand forecast upward on improving economic outlook
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 830,000 b/d in 2025, supported by an improving macroeconomic and trade environment, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s December Oil Market Monthly Report (OMR). This was reflected by resurgent third-quarter demand of 1.1 million b/d, more than doubling from the second-quarter’s underwhelming 450,000 b/d. “After a spate of breakthrough US trade deals were reached over the summer, economic sentiment rebounded quickly, helping emerging and developing economies return to their pre-April trend. Still, the tariff turbulence has essentially rendered 2025 second-quarter a lost quarter for non-OECD oil consumption and the as yet unresolved negotiations over tariffs with a number of countries will continue to weigh on markets,” IEA said. The stronger outlook also carries into 2026, where IEA has raised its demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d year-on-year (y-o-y). Falling oil prices, along with the weaker US dollar—both of which are currently hovering around 4-year lows—will likely boost oil demand in the coming year. “Gasoil and jet/kerosene together make up half of this year’s growth, while fuel oil continues to lose share to natural gas and solar in power generation. In 2026, petrochemical feedstocks will drive the bulk of demand expansion, with their share rising to more than 60%, up from 40% in 2025,” IEA continued. On the supply side, global oil supply dropped by 610,000 b/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to 107.5 million b/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record high of 109 million b/d. OPEC+ accounted for 80% of the decline over the 2-month period, reflecting significant unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, while output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela contracted sharply. Meantime, Russian oil exports fell by 420,000 b/d in November, and together with weaker prices, reduced export revenues to $11 billion—$3.6 billion less than a

bp produces first oil from Gulf expansion, its seventh major upstream startup in 2025
bp plc has produced first oil from the Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion project in the US Gulf of Mexico 2 months ahead of its original schedule. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion, bp’s seventh major upstream startup for the year, adds two wells to an existing drill center. The subsea tieback extends the footprint of Atlantis field, which was discovered in 1998. The project is expected to add 15,000 boe/d gross peak annualized average production from the Atlantis moored floating platform, which operates in more than 7,000 ft of water about 150 miles south of New Orleans with production capacity of about 200,000 b/d of oil and 180 MMcfd. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion is the second in a series of projects bp is planning in the US Gulf to boost production capacity to more than 400,000 boe/d from the region by 2030. Prior to the Atlantis Drill Center 1 project, bp started up major projects this year in Trinidad and Tobago, the UK North Sea, Egypt, Mauritania and Senegal, as well as Argos Southwest Expansion in the Gulf of Mexico. bp is operator at Atlantis (56%) with partner Woodside Energy (44%).

LG rolls out new AI services to help consumers with daily tasks
Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More LG kicked off the AI bandwagon today with a new set of AI services to help consumers in their daily tasks at home, in the car and in the office. The aim of LG’s CES 2025 press event was to show how AI will work in a day of someone’s life, with the goal of redefining the concept of space, said William Joowan Cho, CEO of LG Electronics at the event. The presentation showed LG is fully focused on bringing AI into just about all of its products and services. Cho referred to LG’s AI efforts as “affectionate intelligence,” and he said it stands out from other strategies with its human-centered focus. The strategy focuses on three things: connected devices, capable AI agents and integrated services. One of things the company announced was a strategic partnership with Microsoft on AI innovation, where the companies pledged to join forces to shape the future of AI-powered spaces. One of the outcomes is that Microsoft’s Xbox Ultimate Game Pass will appear via Xbox Cloud on LG’s TVs, helping LG catch up with Samsung in offering cloud gaming natively on its TVs. LG Electronics will bring the Xbox App to select LG smart TVs. That means players with LG Smart TVs will be able to explore the Gaming Portal for direct access to hundreds of games in the Game Pass Ultimate catalog, including popular titles such as Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, and upcoming releases like Avowed (launching February 18, 2025). Xbox Game Pass Ultimate members will be able to play games directly from the Xbox app on select LG Smart TVs through cloud gaming. With Xbox Game Pass Ultimate and a compatible Bluetooth-enabled

Big tech must stop passing the cost of its spiking energy needs onto the public
Julianne Malveaux is an MIT-educated economist, author, educator and political commentator who has written extensively about the critical relationship between public policy, corporate accountability and social equity. The rapid expansion of data centers across the U.S. is not only reshaping the digital economy but also threatening to overwhelm our energy infrastructure. These data centers aren’t just heavy on processing power — they’re heavy on our shared energy infrastructure. For Americans, this could mean serious sticker shock when it comes to their energy bills. Across the country, many households are already feeling the pinch as utilities ramp up investments in costly new infrastructure to power these data centers. With costs almost certain to rise as more data centers come online, state policymakers and energy companies must act now to protect consumers. We need new policies that ensure the cost of these projects is carried by the wealthy big tech companies that profit from them, not by regular energy consumers such as family households and small businesses. According to an analysis from consulting firm Bain & Co., data centers could require more than $2 trillion in new energy resources globally, with U.S. demand alone potentially outpacing supply in the next few years. This unprecedented growth is fueled by the expansion of generative AI, cloud computing and other tech innovations that require massive computing power. Bain’s analysis warns that, to meet this energy demand, U.S. utilities may need to boost annual generation capacity by as much as 26% by 2028 — a staggering jump compared to the 5% yearly increases of the past two decades. This poses a threat to energy affordability and reliability for millions of Americans. Bain’s research estimates that capital investments required to meet data center needs could incrementally raise consumer bills by 1% each year through 2032. That increase may

Final 45V hydrogen tax credit guidance draws mixed response
Dive Brief: The final rule for the 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit, which the U.S. Treasury Department released Friday morning, drew mixed responses from industry leaders and environmentalists. Clean hydrogen development within the U.S. ground to a halt following the release of the initial guidance in December 2023, leading industry participants to call for revisions that would enable more projects to qualify for the tax credit. While the final rule makes “significant improvements” to Treasury’s initial proposal, the guidelines remain “extremely complex,” according to the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association. FCHEA President and CEO Frank Wolak and other industry leaders said they look forward to working with the Trump administration to refine the rule. Dive Insight: Friday’s release closed what Wolak described as a “long chapter” for the hydrogen industry. But industry reaction to the final rule was decidedly mixed, and it remains to be seen whether the rule — which could be overturned as soon as Trump assumes office — will remain unchanged. “The final 45V rule falls short,” Marty Durbin, president of the U.S. Chamber’s Global Energy Institute, said in a statement. “While the rule provides some of the additional flexibility we sought, … we believe that it still will leave billions of dollars of announced projects in limbo. The incoming Administration will have an opportunity to improve the 45V rules to ensure the industry will attract the investments necessary to scale the hydrogen economy and help the U.S. lead the world in clean manufacturing.” But others in the industry felt the rule would be sufficient for ending hydrogen’s year-long malaise. “With this added clarity, many projects that have been delayed may move forward, which can help unlock billions of dollars in investments across the country,” Kim Hedegaard, CEO of Topsoe’s Power-to-X, said in a statement. Topsoe

Texas, Utah, Last Energy challenge NRC’s ‘overburdensome’ microreactor regulations
Dive Brief: A 69-year-old Nuclear Regulatory Commission rule underpinning U.S. nuclear reactor licensing exceeds the agency’s statutory authority and creates an unreasonable burden for microreactor developers, the states of Texas and Utah and advanced nuclear technology company Last Energy said in a lawsuit filed Dec. 30 in federal court in Texas. The plaintiffs asked the Eastern District of Texas court to exempt Last Energy’s 20-MW reactor design and research reactors located in the plaintiff states from the NRC’s definition of nuclear “utilization facilities,” which subjects all U.S. commercial and research reactors to strict regulatory scrutiny, and order the NRC to develop a more flexible definition for use in future licensing proceedings. Regardless of its merits, the lawsuit underscores the need for “continued discussion around proportional regulatory requirements … that align with the hazards of the reactor and correspond to a safety case,” said Patrick White, research director at the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. Dive Insight: Only three commercial nuclear reactors have been built in the United States in the past 28 years, and none are presently under construction, according to a World Nuclear Association tracker cited in the lawsuit. “Building a new commercial reactor of any size in the United States has become virtually impossible,” the plaintiffs said. “The root cause is not lack of demand or technology — but rather the [NRC], which, despite its name, does not really regulate new nuclear reactor construction so much as ensure that it almost never happens.” More than a dozen advanced nuclear technology developers have engaged the NRC in pre-application activities, which the agency says help standardize the content of advanced reactor applications and expedite NRC review. Last Energy is not among them. The pre-application process can itself stretch for years and must be followed by a formal application that can take two

Qualcomm unveils AI chips for PCs, cars, smart homes and enterprises
Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Qualcomm unveiled AI technologies and collaborations for PCs, cars, smart homes and enterprises at CES 2025. At the big tech trade show in Las Vegas, Qualcomm Technologies showed how it’s using AI capabilities in its chips to drive the transformation of user experiences across diverse device categories, including PCs, automobiles, smart homes and into enterprises. The company unveiled the Snapdragon X platform, the fourth platform in its high-performance PC portfolio, the Snapdragon X Series, bringing industry-leading performance, multi-day battery life, and AI leadership to more of the Windows ecosystem. Qualcomm has talked about how its processors are making headway grabbing share from the x86-based AMD and Intel rivals through better efficiency. Qualcomm’s neural processing unit gets about 45 TOPS, a key benchmark for AI PCs. The Snapdragon X family of AI PC processors. Additionally, Qualcomm Technologies showcased continued traction of the Snapdragon X Series, with over 60 designs in production or development and more than 100 expected by 2026. Snapdragon for vehicles Qualcomm demoed chips that are expanding its automotive collaborations. It is working with Alpine, Amazon, Leapmotor, Mobis, Royal Enfield, and Sony Honda Mobility, who look to Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions to drive AI-powered in-cabin and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Qualcomm also announced continued traction for its Snapdragon Elite-tier platforms for automotive, highlighting its work with Desay, Garmin, and Panasonic for Snapdragon Cockpit Elite. Throughout the show, Qualcomm will highlight its holistic approach to improving comfort and focusing on safety with demonstrations on the potential of the convergence of AI, multimodal contextual awareness, and cloudbased services. Attendees will also get a first glimpse of the new Snapdragon Ride Platform with integrated automated driving software stack and system definition jointly

Oil, Gas Execs Reveal Where They Expect WTI Oil Price to Land in the Future
Executives from oil and gas firms have revealed where they expect the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the fourth quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released recently. The average response executives from 131 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2025 was $71.13 per barrel, the survey showed. The low forecast came in at $53 per barrel, the high forecast was $100 per barrel, and the spot price during the survey was $70.66 per barrel, the survey pointed out. This question was not asked in the previous Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released in the third quarter. That survey asked participants what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024. Executives from 134 oil and gas firms answered this question, offering an average response of $72.66 per barrel, that survey showed. The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 124 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $69 per barrel for the six month mark, $71 per barrel for the year mark, $74 per barrel for the two year mark, and $80 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey showed. Executives from 119 oil and gas firms answered this question in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $73 per barrel for the six month mark, $76 per barrel for the year mark, $81 per barrel for the two year mark, and $87 per barrel for the five year mark, that
Strengthening our partnership with the UK government to support prosperity and security in the AI era
AI presents an opportunity to build a more prosperous and secure world.The UK has already laid a strong foundation to seize this moment and is uniquely positioned to translate AI innovation into public benefit. That’s why we are excited to deepen our collaboration with the UK government to accelerate this work and offer a blueprint for other countries.Together we will focus on using AI to speed up progress in science and education, modernize public services and advance national security and resilience.Accelerating access to frontier AI in key sectors: Science & EducationOur partnership will center on providing access to frontier AI in two areas foundational to the UK’s long-term success: scientific discovery and education.The UK has a rich history of applying new technologies to drive scientific progress, from Hooke’s microscope to Faraday’s electrical experiments. We aim to build on this heritage, and empower the next generation of scientists with AI tools that can unlock breakthroughs, transform the economy, and solve some of the major challenges facing humanity. We will provide priority access to our “AI for Science” models to UK scientists, including:AlphaEvolve – a Gemini-powered coding agent for designing advanced algorithmsAlphaGenome – an AI model to help scientists better understand our DNAAI co-scientist – a multi-agent AI system that acts as a virtual scientific collaboratorWeatherNext – a family of state-of-the-art weather forecasting modelsLike the microscope or telescope, these AI tools are designed to enhance scientific capacity, enabling researchers to tackle problems of unprecedented complexity and scale. For example, AlphaFold – our AI system for predicting protein structures – has already enabled almost 190,000 researchers in the UK alone to deepen their understanding of areas such as crop resilience, antimicrobial resistance and other critical biological challenges.Establishing Google DeepMind’s first automated science laboratory in the UKTo help turbocharge scientific discovery, we will establish Google DeepMind’s first automated laboratory in the UK in 2026, specifically focused on materials science research. A multidisciplinary team of researchers will oversee research in the lab, which will be built from the ground up to be fully integrated with Gemini. By directing world-class robotics to synthesize and characterize hundreds of materials per day, the team intends to significantly shorten the timeline for identifying transformative new materials.Discovering new materials is one of the most important pursuits in science, offering the potential to reduce costs and enable entirely new technologies. For example, superconductors that operate at ambient temperature and pressure could allow for low cost medical imaging and reduce power loss in electrical grids. Other novel materials could help us tackle critical energy challenges by unlocking advanced batteries, next-generation solar cells and more efficient computer chips.
Deepening our partnership with the UK AI Security Institute
Today, we’re announcing an expanded partnership with the UK AI Security Institute (AISI) through a new Memorandum of Understanding focused on foundational security and safety research, to help ensure artificial intelligence is developed safely and benefits everyone.The research partnership with AISI is an important part of our broader collaboration with the UK government on accelerating safe and beneficial AI progress.Building on a foundation of collaborationAI holds immense potential to benefit humanity by helping treat disease, accelerate scientific discovery, create economic prosperity and tackle climate change. For these benefits to be realised, we must put safety and responsibility at the heart of development. Evaluating our models against a broad spectrum of potential risks remains a critical part of our safety strategy, and external partnerships are an important element of this work.This is why we have partnered with the UK AISI since its inception in November 2023 to test our most capable models. We are deeply committed to the UK AISI’s goal to equip governments, industry and wider society with a scientific understanding of the potential risks posed by advanced AI as well as potential solutions and mitigations.We are actively working with AISI to build more robust evaluations for AI models, and our teams have collaborated on safety research to move the field forward, including recent work on Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fragile Opportunity for AI Safety. Building on this success, today we are broadening our partnership from testing to include wider, more foundational, research in a variety of areas.What the partnership involvesUnder this new research partnership, we’re broadening our collaboration to include:Sharing access to our proprietary models, data and ideas to accelerate research progressJoint reports and publications sharing findings with the research communityMore collaborative security and safety research combining our teams’ expertiseTechnical discussions to tackle complex safety challengesKey research areasOur joint research with AISI focuses on critical areas where Google DeepMind’s expertise, interdisciplinary teams, and years of pioneering responsible research can help make AI systems more safe and secure:Monitoring AI reasoning processesWe will work on techniques to monitor an AI system’s “thinking”, also commonly referred to as its chain-of-thought (CoT). This work builds on previous Google DeepMind research as well, and our recent collaboration on this topic with AISI, OpenAI, Anthropic and other partners. CoT monitoring helps us understand how an AI system produces its answers, complementing interpretability research.Understanding social and emotional impactsWe will work together to investigate the ethical implications of socioaffective misalignment; that is, the potential for AI models to behave in ways which do not align with human wellbeing, even when they’re technically following instructions correctly. This research will build on existing Google DeepMind work that has helped define this critical area of AI safety.Evaluating economic systemsWe will explore the potential impact of AI on economic systems by simulating real-world tasks across different environments. Experts will score and validate these tasks, after which they will be categorised along dimensions like complexity or representativeness, to help predict factors like long-term labour market impact.Working together to realise the benefits of AIOur partnership with AISI is one element of how we aim to realise the benefits of AI for humanity while mitigating potential risks. Our wider strategy includes foresight research, extensive safety training that goes hand-in-hand with capability development, rigorous testing of our models, and the development of better tools and frameworks to understand and mitigate risk.Strong internal governance processes are also essential for safe and responsible AI development, as is collaborating with independent external experts who bring fresh perspectives and diverse expertise to our work. Google DeepMind’s Responsibility and Safety Council works across teams to monitor emerging risk, review ethics and safety assessments and implement relevant technical and policy mitigations. We also partner with other external experts like Apollo Research, Vaultis, Dreadnode and more, to conduct extensive testing and evaluation of our models, including Gemini 3, our most intelligent and secure model to date.Additionally, Google DeepMind is a proud founding member of the Frontier Model Forum, as well as the Partnership on AI, where we focus on ensuring safe and responsible development of frontier AI models and increasing collaboration on important safety issues.We hope our expanded partnership with AISI will allow us to build more robust approaches to AI safety for the benefit not just of our own organisations, but also the wider industry and everyone who interacts with AI systems.
FACTS Benchmark Suite: Systematically evaluating the factuality of large language models
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly becoming a primary source for information delivery across diverse use cases, so it’s important that their responses are factually accurate.In order to continue improving their performance on this industry-wide challenge, we have to better understand the types of use cases where models struggle to provide an accurate response and better measure factuality performance in those areas.The FACTS Benchmark SuiteToday, we’re teaming up with Kaggle to introduce the FACTS Benchmark Suite. It extends our previous work developing the FACTS Grounding Benchmark, with three additional factuality benchmarks, including:A Parametric Benchmark that measures the model’s ability to access its internal knowledge accurately in factoid question use-cases.A Search Benchmark that tests a model’s ability to use Search as a tool to retrieve information and synthesize it correctly.A Multimodal Benchmark that tests a model’s ability to answer prompts related to input images in a factually correct manner.We are also updating the original FACTS grounding benchmark with Grounding Benchmark – v2, an extended benchmark to test a model’s ability to provide answers grounded in the context of a given prompt.Each benchmark was carefully curated to produce a total of 3,513 examples, which we are making publicly available today. Similar to our previous release, we are following standard industry practice and keeping an evaluation set held-out as a private set. The FACTS Benchmark Suite Score (or FACTS Score) is calculated as the average accuracy of both public and private sets across the four benchmarks. Kaggle will oversee the management of the FACTS Benchmark Suite. This includes owning the private held-out sets, testing the leading LLMs on the benchmarks, and hosting the results on a public leaderboard. More details about the FACTS evaluation methodology can be found in our tech report.Benchmark overviewParametric BenchmarkThe FACTS Parametric benchmark assesses the ability of models to accurately answer factual questions, without the aid of external tools like web search. All the questions in the benchmark are “trivia style” questions driven by user interest that can be answered via Wikipedia (a standard source for LLM pretraining). The resulting benchmark consists of a 1052-item public set and a 1052-item private set.
Exclusive eBook: Aging Clocks & Understanding Why We Age
This ebook is available only for subscribers.
In this exclusive subscriber-only eBook, you’ll learn about a new method that scientists have uncovered to look at the ways our bodies are aging.by Jessica Hamzelou October 14, 2025 Table of Contents: Clocks kick off Black-box clocks How to be young again Dogs and dolphins When young meets old Related Stories: Access all subscriber-only eBooks:
The Download: a controversial proposal to solve climate change, and our future grids
This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. How one controversial startup hopes to cool the planet Stardust Solutions believes that it can solve climate change—for a price. The Israel-based geoengineering startup has said it expects nations will soon pay it more than a billion dollars a year to launch specially equipped aircraft into the stratosphere. Once they’ve reached the necessary altitude, those planes will disperse particles engineered to reflect away enough sunlight to cool down the planet, purportedly without causing environmental side effects.
But numerous solar geoengineering researchers are skeptical that Stardust will line up the customers it needs to carry out a global deployment in the next decade. They’re also highly critical of the idea of a private company setting the global temperature for us. Read the full story. —James Temple
MIT Technology Review Narrated: Is this the electric grid of the future? In Nebraska, a publicly owned utility company is tackling the challenges of delivering on reliability, affordability, and sustainability. It aims to reach net zero by 2040—here’s how it plans to get there. This is our latest story to be turned into a MIT Technology Review Narrated podcast, which we’re publishing each week on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Just navigate to MIT Technology Review Narrated on either platform, and follow us to get all our new content as it’s released. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 Australia’s social media ban for teens has just come into forceThe whole world will be watching to see what happens next. (The Guardian)+ Opinions about the law are sharply divided among Australians. (BBC)+ Plenty of teens hate it, naturally. (WP $)+ A third of US teens are on their phones “almost constantly.” (NYT $)2 This has been the second-hottest year since records beganMean temperatures approached 1.5°C above the preindustrial average. (New Scientist $)+ Meanwhile world leaders at this year’s UN climate talks couldn’t even agree to use the phrase ‘fossil fuels’ in the final draft. (MIT Technology Review)3 OpenAI is in troubleIt’s rapidly losing its technological edge to competitors like Google and Anthropic. (The Atlantic $)+ Silicon Valley is working harder than ever to sell AI to us. (Wired $)+ There’s a new industry-wide push to agree shared standards for AI agents. (TechCrunch)+ No one can explain how AI really works—not even the experts attending AI’s biggest research gathering. (NBC)4 MAGA influencers want Trump to kill the Netflix/Warner Bros dealThey argue Netflix is simply too woke (after all, it employs the Obamas.) (WP $)5 AI slop videos have taken over social mediaIt’s now almost impossible to tell if what you’re seeing is real or not. (NYT $)6 Trump’s system to weed out noncitizen voters is flagging US citizens Once alerted, people have 30 days to provide proof of citizenship before they lose their ability to vote. (NPR)+ The US is planning to ask visitors to disclose five years of social media history. (WP $)+ How open source voting machines could boost trust in US elections. (MIT Technology Review)7 Virtual power plants are having a momentHere’s why they’re poised to play a significant role in meeting energy demand over the next decade. (IEEE Spectrum)+ How virtual power plants are shaping tomorrow’s energy system. (MIT Technology Review)8 New devices are about to get (even) more expensiveYou can thank AI for pushing up the price of RAM for the rest of us. (The Verge)9 People hated the McDonald’s AI ad so much the company pulled it How are giant corporations still falling into this exact trap every holiday season? (Forbes)
10 Why is ice slippery? There’s a new hypothesis 🧊You might think you know. But it’s still fiercely debated among ice researchers! (Quanta $) Quote of the day “We’re pleased to be the first, we’re proud to be the first, and we stand ready to help any other jurisdiction who seeks to do these things.” —Australia’s communications minister Anika Wells tells the BBC how she feels about her government’s decision to ban social media for under-16s. One more thing MICHAEL BYERS The entrepreneur dreaming of a factory of unlimited organs
At any given time, the US transplant waiting list is about 100,000 people long. Thousands die waiting, and many more never make the list to begin with. Entrepreneur Martine Rothblatt wants to address this by growing organs compatible with human bodies in genetically modified pigs. In recent years, US doctors have attempted seven pig-to-human transplants, the most dramatic of which was a case where a 57-year-old man with heart failure lived two months with a pig heart supplied by Rothblatt’s company.
The experiment demonstrated the first life-sustaining pig-to-human organ transplant—and paved the way towards an organized clinical trial to prove they save lives consistently. Read the full story. —Antonio Regalado

How one controversial startup hopes to cool the planet
Stardust Solutions believes that it can solve climate change—for a price. The Israel-based geoengineering startup has said it expects nations will soon pay it more than a billion dollars a year to launch specially equipped aircraft into the stratosphere. Once they’ve reached the necessary altitude, those planes will disperse particles engineered to reflect away enough sunlight to cool down the planet, purportedly without causing environmental side effects. The proprietary (and still secret) particles could counteract all the greenhouse gases the world has emitted over the last 150 years, the company stated in a 2023 pitch deck it presented to venture capital firms. In fact, it’s the “only technologically feasible solution” to climate change, the company said. The company disclosed it raised $60 million in funding in October, marking by far the largest known funding round to date for a startup working on solar geoengineering.
Stardust is, in a sense, the embodiment of Silicon Valley’s simmering frustration with the pace of academic research on the technology. It’s a multimillion-dollar bet that a startup mindset can advance research and development that has crept along amid scientific caution and public queasiness. But numerous researchers focused on solar geoengineering are deeply skeptical that Stardust will line up the government customers it would need to carry out a global deployment as early as 2035, the plan described in its earlier investor materials—and aghast at the suggestion that it ever expected to move that fast. They’re also highly critical of the idea that a company would take on the high-stakes task of setting the global temperature, rather than leaving it to publicly funded research programs.
“They’ve ignored every recommendation from everyone and think they can turn a profit in this field,” says Douglas MacMartin, an associate professor at Cornell University who studies solar geoengineering. “I think it’s going to backfire. Their investors are going to be dumping their money down the drain, and it will set back the field.” The company has finally emerged from stealth mode after completing its funding round, and its CEO, Yanai Yedvab, agreed to conduct one of the company’s first extensive interviews with MIT Technology Review for this story.Yedvab walked back those ambitious projections a little, stressing that the actual timing of any stratospheric experiments, demonstrations, or deployments will be determined by when governments decide it’s appropriate to carry them out. Stardust has stated clearly that it will move ahead with solar geoengineering only if nations pay it to proceed, and only once there are established rules and bodies guiding the use of the technology. That decision, he says, will likely be dictated by how bad climate change becomes in the coming years. “It could be a situation where we are at the place we are now, which is definitely not great,” he says. “But it could be much worse. We’re saying we’d better be ready.” “It’s not for us to decide, and I’ll say humbly, it’s not for these researchers to decide,” he adds. “It’s the sense of urgency that will dictate how this will evolve.” The building blocks No one is questioning the scientific credentials of Stardust. The company was founded in 2023 by a trio of prominent researchers, including Yedvab, who served as deputy chief scientist at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission. The company’s lead scientist, Eli Waxman, is the head of the department of particle physics and astrophysics at the Weizmann Institute of Science. Amyad Spector, the chief product officer, was previously a nuclear physicist at Israel’s secretive Negev Nuclear Research Center. Stardust CEO Yanai Yedvab (right) and Chief Product Officer Amyad Spector (left) at the company’s facility in Israel. ROBY YAHAV, STARDUST Stardust says it employs 25 scientists, engineers, and academics. The company is based in Ness Ziona, Israel, and plans to open a US headquarters soon. Yedvab says the motivation for starting Stardust was simply to help develop an effective means of addressing climate change.
“Maybe something in our experience, in the tool set that we bring, can help us in contributing to solving one of the greatest problems humanity faces,” he says. Lowercarbon Capital, the climate-tech-focused investment firm cofounded by the prominent tech investor Chris Sacca, led the $60 million investment round. Future Positive, Future Ventures, and Never Lift Ventures, among others, participated as well.AWZ Ventures, a firm focused on security and intelligence technologies, co-led the company’s earlier seed round, which totaled $15 million. Yedvab says the company will use that money to advance research, development, and testing for the three components of its system, which are also described in the pitch deck: safe particles that could be affordably manufactured; aircraft dispersion systems; and a means of tracking particles and monitoring their effects. “Essentially, the idea is to develop all these building blocks and to upgrade them to a level that will allow us to give governments the tool set and all the required information to make decisions about whether and how to deploy this solution,” he says. The company is, in many ways, the opposite of Make Sunsets, the first company that came along offering to send particles into the stratosphere—for a fee—by pumping sulfur dioxide into weather balloons and hand-releasing them into the sky. Many researchers viewed it as a provocative, unscientific, and irresponsible exercise in attention-gathering. But Stardust is serious, and now it’s raised serious money from serious people—all of which raises the stakes for the solar geoengineering field and, some fear, increases the odds that the world will eventually put the technology to use. “That marks a turning point in that these types of actors are not only possible, but are real,” says Shuchi Talati, executive director of the Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering, a nonprofit that strives to ensure that developing nations are included in the global debate over such climate interventions. “We’re in a more dangerous era now.” Ask AIWhy it matters to you?BETAHere’s why this story might matter to you, according to AI. This is a beta feature and AI hallucinates—it might get weirdTell me why it matters Many scientists studying solar geoengineering argue strongly that universities, governments, and transparent nonprofits should lead the work in the field, given the potential dangers and deep public concerns surrounding a tool with the power to alter the climate of the planet.
It’s essential to carry out the research with appropriate oversight, explore the potential downsides of these approaches, and publicly publish the results “to ensure there’s no bias in the findings and no ulterior motives in pushing one way or another on deployment or not,” MacMartin says. “[It] shouldn’t be foisted upon people without proper and adequate information.” He criticized, for instance, the company’s claims to have developed a perfectly safe and inert “magic aerosol particle,” arguing that such a promise can’t be trusted without published findings. Other scientists have also disputed those scientific claims.Plenty of other academics say solar geoengineering shouldn’t be studied at all, fearing that merely investigating it starts the world down a slippery slope toward its use and diminishes the pressures to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. In 2022, hundreds of them signed an open letter calling for a global ban on the development and use of the technology, adding the concern that there is no conceivable way for the world’s nations to pull together to establish rules or make collective decisions ensuring that it would be used in “a fair, inclusive, and effective manner.”
“Solar geoengineering is not necessary,” the authors wrote. “Neither is it desirable, ethical, or politically governable in the current context.” The for-profit decision Stardust says it’s important to pursue the possibility of solar geoengineering because the dangers of climate change are accelerating faster than the world’s ability to respond to it, requiring a new “class of solution … that buys us time and protects us from overheating.” Yedvab says he and his colleagues thought hard about the right structure for the organization, finally deciding that for-profits working in parallel with academic researchers have delivered “most of the groundbreaking technologies” in recent decades. He cited advances in genome sequencing, space exploration, and drug development, as well as the restoration of the ozone layer. He added that a for-profit structure was also required to raise funds and attract the necessary talent. “There is no way we could, unfortunately, raise even a small portion of this amount by philanthropic resources or grants these days,” he says. He adds that while academics have conducted lots of basic science in solar geoengineering, they’ve done very little in terms of building the technological capacities. Their geoengineering research is also primarily focused on the potential use of sulfur dioxide, because it is known to help reduce global temperatures after volcanic eruptions blast massive amounts of it into the stratospheric. But it has well-documented downsides as well, including harm to the protective ozone layer.
“It seems natural that we need better options, and this is why we started Stardust: to develop this safe, practical, and responsible solution,” the company said in a follow-up email. “Eventually, policymakers will need to evaluate and compare these options, and we’re confident that our option will be superior over sulfuric acid primarily in terms of safety and practicability.” Public trust can be won not by excluding private companies, but by setting up regulations and organizations to oversee this space, much as the US Food and Drug Administration does for pharmaceuticals, Yedvab says.“There is no way this field could move forward if you don’t have this governance framework, if you don’t have external validation, if you don’t have clear regulation,” he says. Meanwhile, the company says it intends to operate transparently, pledging to publish its findings whether they’re favorable or not. That will include finally revealing details about the particles it has developed, Yedvab says.
Early next year, the company and its collaborators will begin publishing data or evidence “substantiating all the claims and disclosing all the information,” he says, “so that everyone in the scientific community can actually check whether we checked all these boxes.” In the follow-up email, the company acknowledged that solar geoengineering isn’t a “silver bullet” but said it is “the only tool that will enable us to cool the planet in the short term, as part of a larger arsenal of technologies.” “The only way governments could be in a position to consider [solar geoengineering] is if the work has been done to research, de-risk, and engineer safe and responsible solutions—which is what we see as our role,” the company added later. “We are hopeful that research will continue not just from us, but also from academic institutions, nonprofits, and other responsible companies that may emerge in the future.” Ambitious projections Stardust’s earlier pitch deck stated that the company expected to conduct its first “stratospheric aerial experiments” last year, though those did not move ahead (more on that in a moment). On another slide, the company said it expected to carry out a “large-scale demonstration” around 2030 and proceed to a “global full-scale deployment” by about 2035. It said it expected to bring in roughly $200 million and $1.5 billion in annual revenue by those periods, respectively. Every researcher interviewed for this story was adamant that such a deployment should not happen so quickly. Given the global but uneven and unpredictable impacts of solar geoengineering, any decision to use the technology should be reached through an inclusive, global agreement, not through the unilateral decisions of individual nations, Talati argues. “We won’t have any sort of international agreement by that point given where we are right now,” she says. A global agreement, to be clear, is a big step beyond setting up rules and oversight bodies—and some believe that such an agreement on a technology so divisive could never be achieved. There’s also still a vast amount of research that must be done to better understand the negative side effects of solar geoengineering generally and any ecological impacts of Stardust’s materials specifically, adds Holly Buck, an associate professor at the University of Buffalo and author of After Geoengineering. “It is irresponsible to talk about deploying stratospheric aerosol injection without fundamental research about its impacts,” Buck wrote in an email. She says the timelines are also “unrealistic” because there are profound public concerns about the technology. Her polling work found that a significant fraction of the US public opposes even research (though polling varies widely). Meanwhile, most academic efforts to move ahead with even small-scale outdoor experiments have sparked fierce backlash. That includes the years-long effort by researchers then at Harvard to carry out a basic equipment test for their so-called ScopeX experiment. The high-altitude balloon would have launched from a flight center in Sweden, but the test was ultimately scratched amid objections from environmentalists and Indigenous groups. Given this baseline of public distrust, Stardust’s for-profit proposals only threaten to further inflame public fears, Buck says. “I find the whole proposal incredibly socially naive,” she says. “We actually could use serious research in this field, but proposals like this diminish the chances of that happening.” Those public fears, which cross the political divide, also mean politicians will see little to no political upside to paying Stardust to move ahead, MacMartin says. “If you don’t have the constituency for research, it seems implausible to me that you’d turn around and give money to an Israeli company to deploy it,” he says. An added risk is that if one nation or a small coalition forges ahead without broader agreement, it could provoke geopolitical conflicts. “What if Russia wants it a couple of degrees warmer, and India a couple of degrees cooler?” asked Alan Robock, a professor at Rutgers University, in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 2008. “Should global climate be reset to preindustrial temperature or kept constant at today’s reading? Would it be possible to tailor the climate of each region of the planet independently without affecting the others? If we proceed with geoengineering, will we provoke future climate wars?” Revised plans Yedvab says the pitch deck reflected Stardust’s strategy at a “very early stage in our work,” adding that their thinking has “evolved,” partly in response to consultations with experts in the field. He says that the company will have the technological capacity to move ahead with demonstrations and deployments on the timelines it laid out but adds, “That’s a necessary but not sufficient condition.” “Governments will need to decide where they want to take it, if at all,” he says. “It could be a case that they will say ‘We want to move forward.’ It could be a case that they will say ‘We want to wait a few years.’”“It’s for them to make these decisions,” he says. Yedvab acknowledges that the company has conducted flights in the lower atmosphere to test its monitoring system, using white smoke as a simulant for its particles, as the Wall Street Journal reported last year. It’s also done indoor tests of the dispersion system and its particles in a wind tunnel set up within its facility. But in response to criticisms like the ones above, Yedvab says the company hasn’t conducted outdoor particle experiments and won’t move forward with them until it has approval from governments. “Eventually, there will be a need to conduct outdoor testing,” he says. “There is no way you can validate any solution without outdoor testing.” But such testing of sunlight reflection technology, he says, “should be done only working together with government and under these supervisions.” Generating returns Stardust may be willing to wait for governments to be ready to deploy its system, but there’s no guarantee that its investors will have the same patience. In accepting tens of millions in venture capital, Stardust may now face financial pressures that could “drive the timelines,” says Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University. And that raises a different set of concerns. Obliged to deliver returns, the company might feel it must strive to convince government leaders that they should pay for its services, Talati says. “The whole point of having companies and investors is you want your thing to be used,” she says. “There’s a massive incentive to lobby countries to use it, and that’s the whole danger of having for-profit companies here.” She argues those financial incentives threaten to accelerate the use of solar geoengineering ahead of broader international agreements and elevate business interests above the broader public good. Stardust has “quietly begun lobbying on Capitol Hill” and has hired the law firm Holland & Knight, according to Politico. It has also worked with Red Duke Strategies, a consulting firm based in McLean, Virginia, to develop “strategic relationships and communications that promote understanding and enable scientific testing,” according to a case study on the company’s website. “The company needed to secure both buy-in and support from the United States government and other influential stakeholders to move forward,” Red Duke states. “This effort demanded a well-connected and authoritative partner who could introduce Stardust to a group of experts able to research, validate, deploy, and regulate its SRM technology.” Red Duke didn’t respond to an inquiry from MIT Technology Review. Stardust says its work with the consulting firm was not a government lobbying effort. Yedvab acknowledges that the company is meeting with government leaders in the US, Europe, its own region, and the Global South. But he stresses that it’s not asking any country to contribute funding or to sign off on deployments at this stage. Instead, it’s making the case for nations to begin crafting policies to regulate solar geoengineering. “When we speak to policymakers—and we speak to policymakers; we don’t hide it—essentially, what we tell them is ‘Listen, there is a solution,’” he says. “‘It’s not decades away—it’s a few years away. And it’s your role as policymakers to set the rules of this field.’” “Any solution needs checks and balances,” he says. “This is how we see the checks and balances.” He says the best-case scenario is still a rollout of clean energy technologies that accelerates rapidly enough to drive down emissions and curb climate change. “We are perfectly fine with building an option that will sit on the shelf,” he says. “We’ll go and do something else. We have a great team and are confident that we can find also other problems to work with.” He says the company’s investors are aware of and comfortable with that possibility, supportive of the principles that will guide Stardust’s work, and willing to wait for regulations and government contracts. Lowercarbon Capital didn’t respond to an inquiry from MIT Technology Review. ‘Sentiment of hope’ Others have certainly imagined the alternative scenario Yedvab raises: that nations will increasingly support the idea of geoengineering in the face of mounting climate catastrophes. In Kim Stanley Robinson’s 2020 novel, The Ministry for the Future, India unilaterally forges ahead with solar geoengineering following a heat wave that kills millions of people. Wagner sketched a variation on that scenario in his 2021 book, Geoengineering: The Gamble, speculating that a small coalition of nations might kick-start a rapid research and deployment program as an emergency response to escalating humanitarian crises. In his version, the Philippines offers to serve as the launch site after a series of super-cyclones batter the island nation, forcing millions from their homes. It’s impossible to know today how the world will react if one nation or a few go it alone, or whether nations could come to agreement on where the global temperature should be set. But the lure of solar geoengineering could become increasingly enticing as more and more nations endure mass suffering, starvation, displacement, and death. “We understand that probably it will not be perfect,” Yedvab says. “We understand all the obstacles, but there is this sentiment of hope, or cautious hope, that we have a way out of this dark corridor we are currently in.” “I think that this sentiment of hope is something that gives us a lot of energy to move on forward,” he adds.

bp produces first oil from Gulf expansion, its seventh major upstream startup in 2025
bp plc has produced first oil from the Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion project in the US Gulf of Mexico 2 months ahead of its original schedule. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion, bp’s seventh major upstream startup for the year, adds two wells to an existing drill center. The subsea tieback extends the footprint of Atlantis field, which was discovered in 1998. The project is expected to add 15,000 boe/d gross peak annualized average production from the Atlantis moored floating platform, which operates in more than 7,000 ft of water about 150 miles south of New Orleans with production capacity of about 200,000 b/d of oil and 180 MMcfd. The Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion is the second in a series of projects bp is planning in the US Gulf to boost production capacity to more than 400,000 boe/d from the region by 2030. Prior to the Atlantis Drill Center 1 project, bp started up major projects this year in Trinidad and Tobago, the UK North Sea, Egypt, Mauritania and Senegal, as well as Argos Southwest Expansion in the Gulf of Mexico. bp is operator at Atlantis (56%) with partner Woodside Energy (44%).

IEA revises oil demand forecast upward on improving economic outlook
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 830,000 b/d in 2025, supported by an improving macroeconomic and trade environment, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s December Oil Market Monthly Report (OMR). This was reflected by resurgent third-quarter demand of 1.1 million b/d, more than doubling from the second-quarter’s underwhelming 450,000 b/d. “After a spate of breakthrough US trade deals were reached over the summer, economic sentiment rebounded quickly, helping emerging and developing economies return to their pre-April trend. Still, the tariff turbulence has essentially rendered 2025 second-quarter a lost quarter for non-OECD oil consumption and the as yet unresolved negotiations over tariffs with a number of countries will continue to weigh on markets,” IEA said. The stronger outlook also carries into 2026, where IEA has raised its demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d year-on-year (y-o-y). Falling oil prices, along with the weaker US dollar—both of which are currently hovering around 4-year lows—will likely boost oil demand in the coming year. “Gasoil and jet/kerosene together make up half of this year’s growth, while fuel oil continues to lose share to natural gas and solar in power generation. In 2026, petrochemical feedstocks will drive the bulk of demand expansion, with their share rising to more than 60%, up from 40% in 2025,” IEA continued. On the supply side, global oil supply dropped by 610,000 b/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to 107.5 million b/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record high of 109 million b/d. OPEC+ accounted for 80% of the decline over the 2-month period, reflecting significant unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, while output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela contracted sharply. Meantime, Russian oil exports fell by 420,000 b/d in November, and together with weaker prices, reduced export revenues to $11 billion—$3.6 billion less than a

Navitas takes FID for field development offshore Falkland Islands
Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd. (NPDP) has taken a final investment decision (FID) on Phase 1 development of Sea Lion oil field about 220 km to the north of the Falkland Islands. The Falkland Islands government has approved the field development and production program for Phases 1 and 2 of the Northern Development Area within the field. Following the approvals, the licenses covering Sea Lion will move into the Exploitation Phase, which lasts 35 years, or longer if needed to complete production. The total post-FID funding requirement is $1.8 billion to first oil and $2.1 billion to project completion (including contingencies and financing costs). Phase 1 targets 170 million bbl at a peak production of about 50,000 b/d. This initial stage consists of drilling 11 subsea wells tied back to a redeployed floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel. The first well is not expected to be spudded for over 12 months, and first oil is currently planned for 2028. Phase 2 is expected to add another 12 wells and recover a further gross 2C resource of 149 million bbl. Sea Lion has 319 million bbl of certified resources and total gross full field 2C resource of 917 million bbl, with 727 million bbl categorized as development pending. As part of the Phase 1 sanction, Navitas has entered into a number of commercial contracts, including an FPSO charter agreement, drilling rig contract, a framework agreement for the supply of drilling and completion services, and an agreement for the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of subsea umbilicals, risers, and flowlines. NPDP is operator of Sea Lion (65%) with partner Rockhopper Exploration plc (35%).

bp, Woodside, Murphy, Beacon big winners in Gulf lease sale
She declined to say whether BOEM was surprised by the level of interest given crude oil prices in the $60/bbl range or if the sale bodes well for lease sales in the newly opened areas offshore Alaska and the West Coast, noting that the bureau, a division of the US Interior Department, needs to fully analyze the results. Lease sale high bids BP Exploration and Production Inc., Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc., Murphy Exploration & Production Co.– USA, and Beacon Offshore Energy Exploration LLC were the sale’s big spenders, as apparent winners with $60 million, $38 million, $33 million, and $27 million in leases, respectively. Chevron submitted the sale’s single highest bid of $18.5 million for Keathley Canyon block 25, prevailing over two other bidders. This was one of eight tracts receiving three bids; 22 other blocks received two bids. Keathley Canyon, which lies in the ultradeep waters of the northern Gulf offshore the Texas-Louisiana shelf, is home to Lucius, Tiber, and Kaskida fields that feature deepwater pipelines, like the Keathley Canyon Connector. Chevron Corp. and other oil majors are active in the area. Woodside and Repsol OCS LLC offered the two next-highest bids: $15.2 million for Walker Ridge 443 and $12.2 million for the adjacent Walker Ridge 444. Those tracks received two and three bids, respectively. Walker Ridge, about 150-280 km (90-170 miles) south-southwest of the Louisiana coast, features large projects like Shenandoah and Big Foot in ultradeep waters of 1,700-3,000 m. The companies also teamed up to win a $4.2-million bid for Walker Ridge 488. The area saw many of the highest-priced bids, including by BP Equinor USA E&P Inc., Talos Energy Offshore, Murphy, and Chevron, with winning bids from $1.1 million to $7 million. Chevron, Shell Offshore Inc., and Beacon were among the most active bidders in Green

Macquarie: Oil oversupply deepens as inventory growth accelerates
The global crude market remains firmly oversupplied, and current trends point to an increasingly imbalanced supply–demand environment through late-2025 and into early-2026. According to a note from Macquarie Group, a peak surplus of more than 4 million b/d is expected by first-quarter 2026. Signs of the surplus are showing with continued offshore builds, increasing onshore builds, and extremely strong freight rates, said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist, Macquarie. Offshore crude inventories have surged by roughly 250 million bbl since late August, while onshore storage has risen by about 30 million bbl over the same period. Over the past month alone, combined offshore and onshore builds have accelerated to nearly 3 million b/d. Despite these rapid stock increases, the forward curve remains in backwardation—supported by continued Atlantic-to-Asia flows. Roughly one-third of offshore builds are linked to long-haul shipments originating from the Americas and moving toward Asia, tying up floating storage and delaying the impact on onshore tanks. However, as these volumes eventually discharge, the market expects visible onshore builds to accelerate—particularly in Asia first, followed by the US and Europe, the report said. “We expect onshore builds to accelerate through year 2025 and into early 2026, a process which should drive Brent towards the low $50 range with a possibility of reaching $45/bbl,” Macquarie reported. Market signals Crude tanker freight rates are exceptionally high amid limited vessel availability. If rates climb further, key arbitrage pathways could shut, forcing more crude into onshore storage. Conversely, once cargoes discharge and vessels are freed up, freight rates could correct lower—another step that typically precedes visible inventory builds. “Either way, a freight sell off should lead rising storage statistics,” Macquarie said. Meantime, price pressure is now spreading across core benchmarks. North Sea markers have softened, while key Brent-linked grades such as West African barrels and

EIA: US oil inventories drop 1.8 million bbl
US commercial crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 5, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped 1.8 million bbl from the previous week to 425.7 million bbl, which is about 4% below the average range for this time of year, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Total motor gasoline inventories gained 6.4 million bbl last week and are about 1% below the 5-year average range for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories rose. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million bbl but are 7% below the 5-year average for this time of year. EIA reported that US crude refinery inputs last week averaged 16.9 million b/d, down 17,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.5% of their operable capacity. Gasoline production decreased to 9.6 million b/d, while distillate fuel production increased by 380,000 b/d, averaging 5.4 million b/d. US crude imports averaged 6.6 million b/d, up 609,000 b/d from the previous week’s average. Over the last 4 weeks, crude imports averaged 6.2 million b/d, down 7.7% from the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components, averaged 659,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 181,000 b/d last week.
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