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China leads global oil stockpiles in 2025

China, the United States, and Japan held the world’s largest strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a recent note.  The EIA examined significant global buildup in strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, prior to the International Energy Agency (IEA)-coordinated emergency release in March 2026 triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These reserves—first established by OECD countries in the 1970s—continue to serve as a critical buffer against supply shocks. China holds the largest volume of oil inventories globally. EIA estimates about 360 million bbl in government-held stocks and roughly 1 billion bbl in commercial inventories, bringing its total to nearly 1.4 billion bbl. The agency said China added about 1.1 million b/d to inventories in 2025, reflecting an aggressive stockpiling strategy. The US follows, with about 413 million bbl in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as of December 2025, alongside more than 400 million bbl in commercial crude stocks, EIA said. Japan ranks third, holding 263 million bbl in government reserves, with an additional 220 million bbl required under Japan’s Oil Stockpiling Act. OECD Europe held about 179 million bbl, and South Korea maintained roughly 79 million bbl.  Among non-OECD countries, estimates are less transparent, EIA noted. Saudi Arabia held about 82 million bbl, Iran 71 million bbl, and the UAE 34 million bbl in on-land inventories, while India’s SPR totaled 21.4 million bbl, with plans to expand storage capacity domestically and abroad. Global estimates remain conservative due to limited transparency and varying definitions of “strategic” inventories, EIA said. In most countries, only government or national oil company holdings are counted, though China is a key exception where commercial inventories are included due to state-directed stockpiling. EIA plans to update its assessment periodically in its Short-Term Energy Outlook beginning this May.

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Ecopetrol agrees to acquire equity stake in Brava Energia with plans for increased ownership

State-owned Ecopetrol SA, Bogotá, Colombia, has agreed to acquire a 26% equity stake in Brava Energia SA from a group of shareholders and plans to launch a tender offer to increase its ownership to 51%, which would give it control of the Brazilian oil and gas independent. The move would add exposure to roughly 81,000 boe/d of production and 459 MMboe of reserves, expanding Ecopetrol’s footprint in Brazil. Ecopetrol entered into share purchase agreement with Jive, Yellowstone, and Bloco Somah Printemps Quantum, which together constitute a group holding about 26% of the outstanding common shares of Brava Energia. Brava Energia, the second-largest independent company listed in the Brazilian market in terms of reserves and production, was incorporated in 2024 from the merger between 3R Petroleum Óleo e Gás SA and Enauta Participações SA. Completion of the deal is subject to certain conditions, including, among others, approval by Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), the grant of certain waivers and consents considering Brava’s financing instruments and relevant commercial agreements, as well as the purchase by Ecopetrol SA, or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the Ecopetrol Group, of the number of shares required to achieve a 51% controlling stake of Brava’s voting share capital. Ecopetrol plans to launch a voluntary tender offer on the B3 stock exchange in Brazil to buy additional shares to reach 51% controlling stake at R$23.00 per share, subject to regulatory requirements and certain conditions. Ecopetrol in Brazil In Brazil, Ecopetrol, through subsidiary Ecopetrol Óleo e Gás do Brasil Ltda., holds 30% interest in 11 blocks in the southern area of Santos basin in consortium with Shell Brasil Petróleo Ltda. (operator, 70%).  The company also holds a 30% non-operated interest in Gato do Mato (BM-S-54) and Sul de Gato do Mato (production sharing agreement), which

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Golden Pass LNG ships first export cargo

Editor’s Note: Updated Apr. 23 to include information provided by the US Energy Information Administration.  Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil Corp., has loaded and shipped its first LNG export cargo from the plant in Sabine Pass, Tex. The departure comes following first LNG production from Train 1 late last month. Once fully operational, Golden Pass LNG expects to export about 18 million tons/year (tpy) of LNG. Golden Pass LNG is the 10th LNG plant in the US, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in a separate release Apr. 23. It is the only new US LNG export plant currently expected to begin LNG shipments this year, EIA said. Construction and commissioning continue on Trains 2 and 3, which are expected to come online in turn, following stable operation of Train 1. EIA noted Golden Pass aims to start up Train 2 in second-half 2026 and Train 3 in first-half 2027. QatarEnergy holds 70% interest in Golden Pass LNG, while ExxonMobil holds the remaining 30%. LNG demand  ExxonMobil forecasts natural gas demand to rise 20% by 2050 and LNG demand to rise by 3% per year through 2050. The operator is developing four LNG projects and, by 2030, expects to double its supply compared to 2020 to more than 40 million tpy.

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The missing step between hype and profit

This story originally appeared in The Algorithm, our weekly newsletter on AI. To get stories like this in your inbox first, sign up here. In February, I picked up a flyer at an anti-AI march in London. I can’t say for sure whether or not its writers meant to riff on South Park’s underpants gnomes. But if they did, they nailed it: “Step 1: Grow a digital super mind,” it read. “Step 2: ? Step 3: ?” Produced by Pause AI, an international activist group that co-organized the protest, it ended with this plea to the reader: “Pause AI until we know what the hell Step 2 is.”  In the South Park episode “Gnomes,” which first aired in 1998, Kenny, Kyle, Cartman, and Stan discover a community of gnomes that sneak out at night to steal underpants from dressers. Why? The gnomes present their pitch deck. “Phase 1: Collect underpants. Phase 2: ? Phase 3: Profit.”
The gnomes’ business plan has since become one of the greats among internet memes, used to satirize everything from startup strategies to policy proposals. Memelord in chief Elon Musk once invoked it in a talk about how he planned to fund a mission to Mars. Right now, it captures the state of AI. Companies have built the tech (Step 1) and promised transformation (Step 3). How they get there is still a big question mark. As far as Pause AI is concerned, Step 2 must involve some kind of regulation. But exactly what it will call for and who will enforce it are up for debate.
AI boosters, on the other hand, are convinced that Step 3 is salvation and tend to glaze over the middle bit. They see us racing toward sunny uplands on the back of an “economically transformative technology,” as OpenAI’s chief scientist, Jakub Pachocki, put it to me a few weeks ago. They know where they want to go—more or less: It’s hazy up there and still some way off. But everyone’s taking a different route. Will they all make it? Will anyone? For every big claim about the future, there is a more sober assessment of how the rubber meets the road—one that quells the hype. Consider two recent studies. One, from Anthropic, predicted what types of jobs are going to be most affected by LLMs. (A takeaway: Managers, architects, and people in the media should prepare for change; groundskeepers, construction workers, and those in hospitality, not so much.) But their predictions are really just guesses, based on what kinds of tasks LLMs seem to be good at rather than how they really perform in the workplace.    Another study, put out in February by researchers at Mercor, an AI hiring startup, tested several AI agents powered by top-tier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind on 480 workplace tasks frequently carried out by human bankers, consultants, and lawyers. Every agent they tested failed to complete most of its duties.    Why is there such wide disagreement? There are a number of factors. For a start, it’s crucial to consider who is making the claims (and why). Anthropic has skin in the game. What’s more, most of the people telling us that something big is about to happen have reached that conclusion largely on the basis of how fast AI coding tools are getting. But not all tasks can be hacked with coding. Other studies have found that LLMs are bad at making strategic judgment calls, for example. What’s more, when they’re deployed, the tools aren’t just dropped into a cleanroom. They need to work in places contaminated with people and existing workflows. And sometimes adding AI will make things worse. Sure, maybe those workflows need to be torn up and refashioned around the new technology for it to achieve transformative status, but that will take time (and guts).   That big hole? It’s right where Step 2 should be. The lack of agreement on exactly what’s about to happen—and how—creates an information vacuum that gets filled by the latest wild claim of the week, evidence be damned. We’re so unmoored from any real understanding of what’s coming and how it will be deployed that a single social media post can (and does) shake markets. We need fewer guesses and more evidence. But that’s going to require transparency from the model makers, coordination between researchers and businesses, and new ways to evaluate this technology that tell us what really happens when it’s rolled out in the real world. The tech industry (and with it the world’s economy) rests on the held-out promise that AI really will be transformative. But that is not yet a sure bet. Next time you hear bold claims about the future, remember that most businesses are still figuring out what to do with their underpants.

Read More »

TD Cowen: AI Adoption Is Already Here. Infrastructure Demand Is What Comes Next.

Enterprise AI adoption is no longer emerging. It is already embedded and beginning to scale in ways that will reshape data center demand. The latest TD Cowen GenAI Adoption Survey makes that clear. Across 689 U.S. enterprises, 92% are now using at least one major AI platform, with Microsoft Copilot, Google Gemini, and ChatGPT forming the core triad of daily enterprise tooling. That’s the baseline. The more important story is what comes next. AI is moving quickly from assistive software to autonomous systems, and that shift carries direct implications for compute demand, power consumption, and infrastructure design. From Copilots to Autonomous Systems Today’s enterprise AI footprint is already broad, but it is still largely human-in-the-loop. That is beginning to change. Roughly a third of respondents say they already have semi-autonomous AI agents running in production, while another large cohort is piloting or planning deployments over the next 12 to 18 months. By 2027, more than three-quarters expect to be running AI agents capable of executing multi-step workflows without human intervention. This is not incremental adoption. It is a step-function shift. Autonomous agents don’t just respond to prompts; they execute tasks, interact with enterprise systems, and continuously access data. For data centers, that translates into more persistent, baseline load: exactly the kind of demand profile that stresses power delivery, increases utilization, and accelerates capacity planning timelines. To wit: AI is moving from a bursty workload to a continuous one. ROI Is No Longer the Question At the same time, the debate around AI return on investment is effectively over. Three-quarters of respondents report positive ROI, while only a small minority report negative outcomes. A meaningful share is already seeing multiples of return on their investments. The implication seems straightforward: AI budgets are becoming durable. This is no longer experimental spend that

Read More »

Nvidia’s ‘AI insurance policy’ balances immediate and future AI approaches

If you think 2028 is far-out thinking, you’ll love the next thing: quantum computing. Yes, there are systems around today. No, you won’t find enterprises using quantum computing even in specialized missions. Yes, a recent set of reports suggests that quantum computing is not infinitely scalable, as was once believed. Still, the potential for quantum computing is enormous. A quantum system could, in theory, rival a supercomputer in something no bigger than a decent server, but nobody really knows how long it will take to get to that point. So, Nvidia isn’t waiting. Right now, the only way to test out quantum applications is to simulate them, and GPUs are the accepted optimum platform for that. The Nvidia idea is to first support that simulation (their CUDA-Q platform and cuQuantum library), and then to link quantum systems to GPU servers with low-latency paths (NVQlink and DGX Quantum). They even have an initiative to create a coalition of labs and quantum players, similar to what gave rise to the Internet, in their Nvidia Accelerated Quantum Computing Research Center. All this is available in early-access form via Nvidia’s quantum cloud. The real-time and quantum initiatives are getting the most attention, but it’s that little personal chatbot that’s the most critical. AI world models and quantum computers are to AI insurance what a health insurance policy that’s effective in five years is to your own financial planning. That little chatbot can bridge the gap and can be real AI insurance and not just another wave of AI hype. It’s fair to ask why you should care about all of this, if you’re not an Nvidia investor. The answer is that, behind the hype, Nvidia is actually pushing the right AI buttons to help build future business cases. There is real enterprise value being

Read More »

China leads global oil stockpiles in 2025

China, the United States, and Japan held the world’s largest strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a recent note.  The EIA examined significant global buildup in strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, prior to the International Energy Agency (IEA)-coordinated emergency release in March 2026 triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These reserves—first established by OECD countries in the 1970s—continue to serve as a critical buffer against supply shocks. China holds the largest volume of oil inventories globally. EIA estimates about 360 million bbl in government-held stocks and roughly 1 billion bbl in commercial inventories, bringing its total to nearly 1.4 billion bbl. The agency said China added about 1.1 million b/d to inventories in 2025, reflecting an aggressive stockpiling strategy. The US follows, with about 413 million bbl in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as of December 2025, alongside more than 400 million bbl in commercial crude stocks, EIA said. Japan ranks third, holding 263 million bbl in government reserves, with an additional 220 million bbl required under Japan’s Oil Stockpiling Act. OECD Europe held about 179 million bbl, and South Korea maintained roughly 79 million bbl.  Among non-OECD countries, estimates are less transparent, EIA noted. Saudi Arabia held about 82 million bbl, Iran 71 million bbl, and the UAE 34 million bbl in on-land inventories, while India’s SPR totaled 21.4 million bbl, with plans to expand storage capacity domestically and abroad. Global estimates remain conservative due to limited transparency and varying definitions of “strategic” inventories, EIA said. In most countries, only government or national oil company holdings are counted, though China is a key exception where commercial inventories are included due to state-directed stockpiling. EIA plans to update its assessment periodically in its Short-Term Energy Outlook beginning this May.

Read More »

Ecopetrol agrees to acquire equity stake in Brava Energia with plans for increased ownership

State-owned Ecopetrol SA, Bogotá, Colombia, has agreed to acquire a 26% equity stake in Brava Energia SA from a group of shareholders and plans to launch a tender offer to increase its ownership to 51%, which would give it control of the Brazilian oil and gas independent. The move would add exposure to roughly 81,000 boe/d of production and 459 MMboe of reserves, expanding Ecopetrol’s footprint in Brazil. Ecopetrol entered into share purchase agreement with Jive, Yellowstone, and Bloco Somah Printemps Quantum, which together constitute a group holding about 26% of the outstanding common shares of Brava Energia. Brava Energia, the second-largest independent company listed in the Brazilian market in terms of reserves and production, was incorporated in 2024 from the merger between 3R Petroleum Óleo e Gás SA and Enauta Participações SA. Completion of the deal is subject to certain conditions, including, among others, approval by Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), the grant of certain waivers and consents considering Brava’s financing instruments and relevant commercial agreements, as well as the purchase by Ecopetrol SA, or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the Ecopetrol Group, of the number of shares required to achieve a 51% controlling stake of Brava’s voting share capital. Ecopetrol plans to launch a voluntary tender offer on the B3 stock exchange in Brazil to buy additional shares to reach 51% controlling stake at R$23.00 per share, subject to regulatory requirements and certain conditions. Ecopetrol in Brazil In Brazil, Ecopetrol, through subsidiary Ecopetrol Óleo e Gás do Brasil Ltda., holds 30% interest in 11 blocks in the southern area of Santos basin in consortium with Shell Brasil Petróleo Ltda. (operator, 70%).  The company also holds a 30% non-operated interest in Gato do Mato (BM-S-54) and Sul de Gato do Mato (production sharing agreement), which

Read More »

Golden Pass LNG ships first export cargo

Editor’s Note: Updated Apr. 23 to include information provided by the US Energy Information Administration.  Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil Corp., has loaded and shipped its first LNG export cargo from the plant in Sabine Pass, Tex. The departure comes following first LNG production from Train 1 late last month. Once fully operational, Golden Pass LNG expects to export about 18 million tons/year (tpy) of LNG. Golden Pass LNG is the 10th LNG plant in the US, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in a separate release Apr. 23. It is the only new US LNG export plant currently expected to begin LNG shipments this year, EIA said. Construction and commissioning continue on Trains 2 and 3, which are expected to come online in turn, following stable operation of Train 1. EIA noted Golden Pass aims to start up Train 2 in second-half 2026 and Train 3 in first-half 2027. QatarEnergy holds 70% interest in Golden Pass LNG, while ExxonMobil holds the remaining 30%. LNG demand  ExxonMobil forecasts natural gas demand to rise 20% by 2050 and LNG demand to rise by 3% per year through 2050. The operator is developing four LNG projects and, by 2030, expects to double its supply compared to 2020 to more than 40 million tpy.

Read More »

The missing step between hype and profit

This story originally appeared in The Algorithm, our weekly newsletter on AI. To get stories like this in your inbox first, sign up here. In February, I picked up a flyer at an anti-AI march in London. I can’t say for sure whether or not its writers meant to riff on South Park’s underpants gnomes. But if they did, they nailed it: “Step 1: Grow a digital super mind,” it read. “Step 2: ? Step 3: ?” Produced by Pause AI, an international activist group that co-organized the protest, it ended with this plea to the reader: “Pause AI until we know what the hell Step 2 is.”  In the South Park episode “Gnomes,” which first aired in 1998, Kenny, Kyle, Cartman, and Stan discover a community of gnomes that sneak out at night to steal underpants from dressers. Why? The gnomes present their pitch deck. “Phase 1: Collect underpants. Phase 2: ? Phase 3: Profit.”
The gnomes’ business plan has since become one of the greats among internet memes, used to satirize everything from startup strategies to policy proposals. Memelord in chief Elon Musk once invoked it in a talk about how he planned to fund a mission to Mars. Right now, it captures the state of AI. Companies have built the tech (Step 1) and promised transformation (Step 3). How they get there is still a big question mark. As far as Pause AI is concerned, Step 2 must involve some kind of regulation. But exactly what it will call for and who will enforce it are up for debate.
AI boosters, on the other hand, are convinced that Step 3 is salvation and tend to glaze over the middle bit. They see us racing toward sunny uplands on the back of an “economically transformative technology,” as OpenAI’s chief scientist, Jakub Pachocki, put it to me a few weeks ago. They know where they want to go—more or less: It’s hazy up there and still some way off. But everyone’s taking a different route. Will they all make it? Will anyone? For every big claim about the future, there is a more sober assessment of how the rubber meets the road—one that quells the hype. Consider two recent studies. One, from Anthropic, predicted what types of jobs are going to be most affected by LLMs. (A takeaway: Managers, architects, and people in the media should prepare for change; groundskeepers, construction workers, and those in hospitality, not so much.) But their predictions are really just guesses, based on what kinds of tasks LLMs seem to be good at rather than how they really perform in the workplace.    Another study, put out in February by researchers at Mercor, an AI hiring startup, tested several AI agents powered by top-tier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind on 480 workplace tasks frequently carried out by human bankers, consultants, and lawyers. Every agent they tested failed to complete most of its duties.    Why is there such wide disagreement? There are a number of factors. For a start, it’s crucial to consider who is making the claims (and why). Anthropic has skin in the game. What’s more, most of the people telling us that something big is about to happen have reached that conclusion largely on the basis of how fast AI coding tools are getting. But not all tasks can be hacked with coding. Other studies have found that LLMs are bad at making strategic judgment calls, for example. What’s more, when they’re deployed, the tools aren’t just dropped into a cleanroom. They need to work in places contaminated with people and existing workflows. And sometimes adding AI will make things worse. Sure, maybe those workflows need to be torn up and refashioned around the new technology for it to achieve transformative status, but that will take time (and guts).   That big hole? It’s right where Step 2 should be. The lack of agreement on exactly what’s about to happen—and how—creates an information vacuum that gets filled by the latest wild claim of the week, evidence be damned. We’re so unmoored from any real understanding of what’s coming and how it will be deployed that a single social media post can (and does) shake markets. We need fewer guesses and more evidence. But that’s going to require transparency from the model makers, coordination between researchers and businesses, and new ways to evaluate this technology that tell us what really happens when it’s rolled out in the real world. The tech industry (and with it the world’s economy) rests on the held-out promise that AI really will be transformative. But that is not yet a sure bet. Next time you hear bold claims about the future, remember that most businesses are still figuring out what to do with their underpants.

Read More »

TD Cowen: AI Adoption Is Already Here. Infrastructure Demand Is What Comes Next.

Enterprise AI adoption is no longer emerging. It is already embedded and beginning to scale in ways that will reshape data center demand. The latest TD Cowen GenAI Adoption Survey makes that clear. Across 689 U.S. enterprises, 92% are now using at least one major AI platform, with Microsoft Copilot, Google Gemini, and ChatGPT forming the core triad of daily enterprise tooling. That’s the baseline. The more important story is what comes next. AI is moving quickly from assistive software to autonomous systems, and that shift carries direct implications for compute demand, power consumption, and infrastructure design. From Copilots to Autonomous Systems Today’s enterprise AI footprint is already broad, but it is still largely human-in-the-loop. That is beginning to change. Roughly a third of respondents say they already have semi-autonomous AI agents running in production, while another large cohort is piloting or planning deployments over the next 12 to 18 months. By 2027, more than three-quarters expect to be running AI agents capable of executing multi-step workflows without human intervention. This is not incremental adoption. It is a step-function shift. Autonomous agents don’t just respond to prompts; they execute tasks, interact with enterprise systems, and continuously access data. For data centers, that translates into more persistent, baseline load: exactly the kind of demand profile that stresses power delivery, increases utilization, and accelerates capacity planning timelines. To wit: AI is moving from a bursty workload to a continuous one. ROI Is No Longer the Question At the same time, the debate around AI return on investment is effectively over. Three-quarters of respondents report positive ROI, while only a small minority report negative outcomes. A meaningful share is already seeing multiples of return on their investments. The implication seems straightforward: AI budgets are becoming durable. This is no longer experimental spend that

Read More »

Nvidia’s ‘AI insurance policy’ balances immediate and future AI approaches

If you think 2028 is far-out thinking, you’ll love the next thing: quantum computing. Yes, there are systems around today. No, you won’t find enterprises using quantum computing even in specialized missions. Yes, a recent set of reports suggests that quantum computing is not infinitely scalable, as was once believed. Still, the potential for quantum computing is enormous. A quantum system could, in theory, rival a supercomputer in something no bigger than a decent server, but nobody really knows how long it will take to get to that point. So, Nvidia isn’t waiting. Right now, the only way to test out quantum applications is to simulate them, and GPUs are the accepted optimum platform for that. The Nvidia idea is to first support that simulation (their CUDA-Q platform and cuQuantum library), and then to link quantum systems to GPU servers with low-latency paths (NVQlink and DGX Quantum). They even have an initiative to create a coalition of labs and quantum players, similar to what gave rise to the Internet, in their Nvidia Accelerated Quantum Computing Research Center. All this is available in early-access form via Nvidia’s quantum cloud. The real-time and quantum initiatives are getting the most attention, but it’s that little personal chatbot that’s the most critical. AI world models and quantum computers are to AI insurance what a health insurance policy that’s effective in five years is to your own financial planning. That little chatbot can bridge the gap and can be real AI insurance and not just another wave of AI hype. It’s fair to ask why you should care about all of this, if you’re not an Nvidia investor. The answer is that, behind the hype, Nvidia is actually pushing the right AI buttons to help build future business cases. There is real enterprise value being

Read More »

Equinor granted Barents Sea drilling permit

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Europa Oil & Gas denied approval for Cloughton prospect well

Europa Oil & Gas (Holdings) plc expects to appeal a decision by the North Yorkshire Council (NYC) planning committee following its preliminary view that it will not approve Europa drilling a well on its Cloughton natural gas prospect in Burniston. The well was to be drilled in United Kingdom license PEDL 343. The plan followed a license extension granted by the North Sea Transition Authority on Jan. 16, 2026. The license holds Europa’s 137 bcf Cloughton discovery. As part of a first-phase work program extended to Mar. 21, 2028, the operator has plans to acquire 17 sq km of 3D seismic and drill an appraisal well to 6,500 ft TVDSS. NYC’s view comes despite the Council’s planning department recommendation that the operation should proceed, Europa Oil & Gas said. A final recommendation is pending a decision by the Secretary of State over the need for an environmental screening assessment to be carried out relating to the proposal. Europa had opted to voluntarily complete and submit an environmental screening assessment as part of the planning application. PEDL 343 covers 110 sq km in Cleveland basin and contains two adjacent blocks, TA09 and SE99a. Block TA09 is north of Scarborough, running up the east coast, and Block SE99a is to its west. The play contains carboniferous sandstone. Europa Oil & Gas is operator of PEDL 343 (40%) with partners Egdon (40%) and Petrichor (20%).

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US BLM to offer 400,000 acres for oil and gas leasing under ANWR’s coastal plain in June

The US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) will offer oil and gas leases on 400,000 acres under the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)’s coastal plain on June 5, the first in a series of at least four sales required under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which the Trump administration now calls the Working Families Tax Cut act. Recent attempts to lease land for oil and gas development in the 1.5-million-acre coastal plain (the “1002 Area”) of ANWR have generated little interest, with the most recent federal lease sale in January 2025 yielding zero bids and no revenue for federal or state taxpayers. This sale was the second auction mandated by another bill, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The first sale under that law, held in January 2021, offered 1.1 million acres but yielded only $14.4 million in high bids, less than 1% of the roughly $1 billion originally estimated. BLM noted, however, that a recent federal lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska generated strong participation, which could portend a stronger showing for the upcoming ANWR sale. “The record-breaking success of last month’s lease sale in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve sent a clear signal: There is robust and continuing demand for Alaskan energy, underscoring the need for more opportunities like the Coastal Plain sale,” Acting BLM Director Bill Groffy said in a statement. “By expanding these opportunities, we strengthen our national energy security, support high-paying jobs for Alaskans, and help ensure Americans have access to affordable energy.” The Mar. 18 NPR-A sale resulted in 187 leases and $163.7 million in total receipts. Oil and gas development in ANWR remains contentious because of its ecologically sensitive environment and ongoing lawsuits from indigenous groups and environmental organizations. Majors, including ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and bp have left the area

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Oil prices decline as Strait traffic resumes

Friday’s move has the May 2026 WTI NYMEX futures are trading below the 8-, 13-, and 21-day Moving Averages with a Low that breached the Lower-Bollinger Band limit. Volume is down to 80,000 as May expires next week and traders turn their attention to June. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), a momentum indicator, has fallen back into neutral territory at 42. Resistance is now pegged at $93.70 (8-day MA) while near-term Support is $82.45 (Bollinger Band). As has been the pattern for several weeks now, traders have to be cautious with their Friday positions as the market is closed until Sunday evening and the US/Iran talks continue on Saturday.   Looking ahead Questions now remain in terms of the duration of the Israeli ceasefire with Lebanon which Iran has tied to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Should Israel violate the ceasefire, it would put Iran’s IRGC back in direct conflict with US naval forces in the area should the former attempt to close the Strait again. US/Iran negotiations are scheduled to continue this weekend in Islamabad. Once again, markets will be closed until Sunday evening so the outcome of those talks will be key to market direction on the Open. Should peace hold, there will need to be a very detailed assessment of the long-term damage to all oil and gas infrastructure in the region. The tanker tracking map below indicates loaded oil vessels are exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas, fundamental analysis May NYMEX natural gas futures have now been on a 5-week downtrend on mild weather and a larger-than-expected storage injections despite healthy LNG export volumes. The week’s High was Monday’s $2.72/MMbtu while the Low was Tuesday’s $2.56, a tight range which indicates market direction uncertainty.   Natural gas demand this week has been estimated at about

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Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan move forward with Western Gateway pipeline with secured shipper interest

Phillips 66 Co. and Kinder Morgan Inc. have secured sufficient shipper interest to advance the proposed Western Gateway refined products pipeline project to supply fuel to ‌Arizona and California, the companies said in a joint release Apr. 20. Following a second open season to secure long-term shipper commitments, the companies will “move the project forward, subject to the execution of definitive transportation service agreements, joint venture agreements, and respective board approvals,” the companies said. “Customer response during the open season underscores the importance of Western Gateway in addressing long term refined products logistics needs in the region,” said Phillips 66 chairman and chief executive officer Mark Lashier. “By utilizing existing pipeline assets across multiple states along the route, we’re uniquely well-positioned to support a refined products transportation solution,” said Kim Dang, Kinder Morgan chief executive officer. Western Gateway pipeline specs The planned 200,000-b/d Western Gateway project is designed as a 1,300-mile refined products system with a new-build pipeline from Borger, Tex. to Phoenix, Ariz., combined with Kinder Morgan’s existing SFPP LP pipeline from Colton, Calif. to Phoenix, Ariz., which will be reversed to enable east-to-west product flows into California. It will be fed from supplies connected to Borger as well as supplies already connected to SFPP’s system in El Paso, Tex. The Gold Pipeline, operated by Phillips 66, which currently flows from Borger to St. Louis, will be reversed to enable refined products from midcontinent refineries to flow toward Borger and supply the Western Gateway pipeline. Western Gateway will also have connectivity to Las Vegas, Nev. via Kinder Morgan’s 566-mile CALNEV Pipeline. The Western Gateway Pipeline is targeting completion by 2029.  Phillips 66 will build the entirety of the new pipeline and will operate the line from Borger, Tex., to El Paso, Tex. Kinder Morgan will operate the line from El

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Viva Energy reports on Geelong refinery status following fire

Viva Energy Group Ltd. has stabilized operations at its 120,000-b/d Geelong refinery in Victoria, Australia, which continues operating at reduced rates following a mid-April fire in the site’s gasoline complex. In an Apr. 20 update to the market, Viva Energy confirmed the Apr. 15 fire specifically occurred in the complex’s alkylation unit and was not fully extinguished until the morning of Apr. 16. While the refinery’s crude distillation units and reformer continue operating, the site’s residue catalytic cracking unit (RCCU) remains temporarily offline as part of ongoing stabilization efforts, according to the company. In the near term, Viva Energy said it expects the refinery’s diesel and jet fuel production to average about 80% normal capacity, with gasoline output reduced to about 60% capacity. The company anticipates production constraints to ease in the coming weeks, subject to inspection and restart of the RCCU, which would allow the refinery’s combined output diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline to exceed 90% of nameplate capacity until all necessary repairs are completed. With sufficient fuel inventories already on hand, Viva Energy said it remains well-positioned to maintain normal fuel supplies to customers during the production shortfalls. “The whole Viva Energy team understands how important our refinery is to the energy security of the country, especially at the current time. We will progressively restore production once we are confident that it is safe to do so, and do not expect any disruptions to fuel availability or price increases for Viva Energy’s customers as a result of this incident,” Scott Wyatt, Viva Energy’s chief executive officer, said in a separate statement. While the company confirmed an assessment of damage to the alkylation unit and associated systems is under way, estimated timelines for full repairs and financial impacts resulting from the fire have yet to be determined. Alongside prioritizing

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LG rolls out new AI services to help consumers with daily tasks

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More LG kicked off the AI bandwagon today with a new set of AI services to help consumers in their daily tasks at home, in the car and in the office. The aim of LG’s CES 2025 press event was to show how AI will work in a day of someone’s life, with the goal of redefining the concept of space, said William Joowan Cho, CEO of LG Electronics at the event. The presentation showed LG is fully focused on bringing AI into just about all of its products and services. Cho referred to LG’s AI efforts as “affectionate intelligence,” and he said it stands out from other strategies with its human-centered focus. The strategy focuses on three things: connected devices, capable AI agents and integrated services. One of things the company announced was a strategic partnership with Microsoft on AI innovation, where the companies pledged to join forces to shape the future of AI-powered spaces. One of the outcomes is that Microsoft’s Xbox Ultimate Game Pass will appear via Xbox Cloud on LG’s TVs, helping LG catch up with Samsung in offering cloud gaming natively on its TVs. LG Electronics will bring the Xbox App to select LG smart TVs. That means players with LG Smart TVs will be able to explore the Gaming Portal for direct access to hundreds of games in the Game Pass Ultimate catalog, including popular titles such as Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, and upcoming releases like Avowed (launching February 18, 2025). Xbox Game Pass Ultimate members will be able to play games directly from the Xbox app on select LG Smart TVs through cloud gaming. With Xbox Game Pass Ultimate and a compatible Bluetooth-enabled

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Big tech must stop passing the cost of its spiking energy needs onto the public

Julianne Malveaux is an MIT-educated economist, author, educator and political commentator who has written extensively about the critical relationship between public policy, corporate accountability and social equity.  The rapid expansion of data centers across the U.S. is not only reshaping the digital economy but also threatening to overwhelm our energy infrastructure. These data centers aren’t just heavy on processing power — they’re heavy on our shared energy infrastructure. For Americans, this could mean serious sticker shock when it comes to their energy bills. Across the country, many households are already feeling the pinch as utilities ramp up investments in costly new infrastructure to power these data centers. With costs almost certain to rise as more data centers come online, state policymakers and energy companies must act now to protect consumers. We need new policies that ensure the cost of these projects is carried by the wealthy big tech companies that profit from them, not by regular energy consumers such as family households and small businesses. According to an analysis from consulting firm Bain & Co., data centers could require more than $2 trillion in new energy resources globally, with U.S. demand alone potentially outpacing supply in the next few years. This unprecedented growth is fueled by the expansion of generative AI, cloud computing and other tech innovations that require massive computing power. Bain’s analysis warns that, to meet this energy demand, U.S. utilities may need to boost annual generation capacity by as much as 26% by 2028 — a staggering jump compared to the 5% yearly increases of the past two decades. This poses a threat to energy affordability and reliability for millions of Americans. Bain’s research estimates that capital investments required to meet data center needs could incrementally raise consumer bills by 1% each year through 2032. That increase may

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Final 45V hydrogen tax credit guidance draws mixed response

Dive Brief: The final rule for the 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit, which the U.S. Treasury Department released Friday morning, drew mixed responses from industry leaders and environmentalists. Clean hydrogen development within the U.S. ground to a halt following the release of the initial guidance in December 2023, leading industry participants to call for revisions that would enable more projects to qualify for the tax credit. While the final rule makes “significant improvements” to Treasury’s initial proposal, the guidelines remain “extremely complex,” according to the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association. FCHEA President and CEO Frank Wolak and other industry leaders said they look forward to working with the Trump administration to refine the rule. Dive Insight: Friday’s release closed what Wolak described as a “long chapter” for the hydrogen industry. But industry reaction to the final rule was decidedly mixed, and it remains to be seen whether the rule — which could be overturned as soon as Trump assumes office — will remain unchanged. “The final 45V rule falls short,” Marty Durbin, president of the U.S. Chamber’s Global Energy Institute, said in a statement. “While the rule provides some of the additional flexibility we sought, … we believe that it still will leave billions of dollars of announced projects in limbo. The incoming Administration will have an opportunity to improve the 45V rules to ensure the industry will attract the investments necessary to scale the hydrogen economy and help the U.S. lead the world in clean manufacturing.” But others in the industry felt the rule would be sufficient for ending hydrogen’s year-long malaise. “With this added clarity, many projects that have been delayed may move forward, which can help unlock billions of dollars in investments across the country,” Kim Hedegaard, CEO of Topsoe’s Power-to-X, said in a statement. Topsoe

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Texas, Utah, Last Energy challenge NRC’s ‘overburdensome’ microreactor regulations

Dive Brief: A 69-year-old Nuclear Regulatory Commission rule underpinning U.S. nuclear reactor licensing exceeds the agency’s statutory authority and creates an unreasonable burden for microreactor developers, the states of Texas and Utah and advanced nuclear technology company Last Energy said in a lawsuit filed Dec. 30 in federal court in Texas. The plaintiffs asked the Eastern District of Texas court to exempt Last Energy’s 20-MW reactor design and research reactors located in the plaintiff states from the NRC’s definition of nuclear “utilization facilities,” which subjects all U.S. commercial and research reactors to strict regulatory scrutiny, and order the NRC to develop a more flexible definition for use in future licensing proceedings. Regardless of its merits, the lawsuit underscores the need for “continued discussion around proportional regulatory requirements … that align with the hazards of the reactor and correspond to a safety case,” said Patrick White, research director at the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. Dive Insight: Only three commercial nuclear reactors have been built in the United States in the past 28 years, and none are presently under construction, according to a World Nuclear Association tracker cited in the lawsuit. “Building a new commercial reactor of any size in the United States has become virtually impossible,” the plaintiffs said. “The root cause is not lack of demand or technology — but rather the [NRC], which, despite its name, does not really regulate new nuclear reactor construction so much as ensure that it almost never happens.” More than a dozen advanced nuclear technology developers have engaged the NRC in pre-application activities, which the agency says help standardize the content of advanced reactor applications and expedite NRC review. Last Energy is not among them.  The pre-application process can itself stretch for years and must be followed by a formal application that can take two

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Qualcomm unveils AI chips for PCs, cars, smart homes and enterprises

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Qualcomm unveiled AI technologies and collaborations for PCs, cars, smart homes and enterprises at CES 2025. At the big tech trade show in Las Vegas, Qualcomm Technologies showed how it’s using AI capabilities in its chips to drive the transformation of user experiences across diverse device categories, including PCs, automobiles, smart homes and into enterprises. The company unveiled the Snapdragon X platform, the fourth platform in its high-performance PC portfolio, the Snapdragon X Series, bringing industry-leading performance, multi-day battery life, and AI leadership to more of the Windows ecosystem. Qualcomm has talked about how its processors are making headway grabbing share from the x86-based AMD and Intel rivals through better efficiency. Qualcomm’s neural processing unit gets about 45 TOPS, a key benchmark for AI PCs. The Snapdragon X family of AI PC processors. Additionally, Qualcomm Technologies showcased continued traction of the Snapdragon X Series, with over 60 designs in production or development and more than 100 expected by 2026. Snapdragon for vehicles Qualcomm demoed chips that are expanding its automotive collaborations. It is working with Alpine, Amazon, Leapmotor, Mobis, Royal Enfield, and Sony Honda Mobility, who look to Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions to drive AI-powered in-cabin and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Qualcomm also announced continued traction for its Snapdragon Elite-tier platforms for automotive, highlighting its work with Desay, Garmin, and Panasonic for Snapdragon Cockpit Elite. Throughout the show, Qualcomm will highlight its holistic approach to improving comfort and focusing on safety with demonstrations on the potential of the convergence of AI, multimodal contextual awareness, and cloudbased services. Attendees will also get a first glimpse of the new Snapdragon Ride Platform with integrated automated driving software stack and system definition jointly

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Oil, Gas Execs Reveal Where They Expect WTI Oil Price to Land in the Future

Executives from oil and gas firms have revealed where they expect the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the fourth quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released recently. The average response executives from 131 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2025 was $71.13 per barrel, the survey showed. The low forecast came in at $53 per barrel, the high forecast was $100 per barrel, and the spot price during the survey was $70.66 per barrel, the survey pointed out. This question was not asked in the previous Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released in the third quarter. That survey asked participants what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024. Executives from 134 oil and gas firms answered this question, offering an average response of $72.66 per barrel, that survey showed. The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 124 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $69 per barrel for the six month mark, $71 per barrel for the year mark, $74 per barrel for the two year mark, and $80 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey showed. Executives from 119 oil and gas firms answered this question in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $73 per barrel for the six month mark, $76 per barrel for the year mark, $81 per barrel for the two year mark, and $87 per barrel for the five year mark, that

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The Download: supercharged scams and studying AI healthcare

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. We’re in a new era of AI-driven scams When ChatGPT was released in late 2022, it showed how easily generative AI could create human-like text. This quickly caught the eye of cybercriminals, who began using LLMs to compose malicious emails. Since then, they’ve adopted AI for everything from turbocharged phishing and hyperrealistic deepfakes to automated vulnerability scans. Many organizations are now struggling to cope with the sheer volume of cyberattacks. AI is making them faster, cheaper, and easier to carry out, a problem set to worsen as more cybercriminals adopt these tools—and their capabilities improve. Read the full story on how AI is reshaping cybercrime. —Rhiannon Williams
“Supercharged scams” is one of the 10 Things That Matter in AI Right Now, our essential guide to what’s really worth your attention in the field. Subscribers can watch an exclusive roundtable unveiling the technologies and trends on the list, with analysis from MIT Technology Review’s AI reporter Grace Huckins and executive editors Amy Nordrum and Niall Firth. Healthcare AI is here. We don’t know if it actually helps patients. Doctors are using AI to help them with notetaking. AI-based tools are trawling through patient records, flagging people who may require certain support or treatments. They are also used to interpret medical exam results and X-rays.
A growing number of studies suggest that many of these tools can deliver accurate results. But there’s a bigger question here: Does using them actually translate into better health outcomes for patients? We don’t yet have a good answer—here’s why. —Jessica Hamzelou The story is from The Checkup, our weekly newsletter that gives you the latest from the worlds of health and biotech. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Thursday. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 DeepSeek has unveiled its long-awaited new AI modelThe Chinese company has just launched preview versions of DeepSeek-V4. (CNN)+It says V4 is the most powerful open-source platform. (Bloomberg $) + And rivals top closed-source models from OpenAI and DeepMind. (SCMP)+ The model is adapted for Huawei chip technology. (Reuters $)2 More countries are curbing children’s social media accessNorway is set to enforce the latest ban. (Reuters $)+ The Philippines could follow soon. (Bloomberg $)+ Americans are pushing to get AI out of schools. (The New Yorker)3 The US has accused China of mass AI theft as tensions riseA White House memo claims Chinese firms are exploiting American models. (BBC)+ Beijing calls the accusations “slander.” (Ars Technica)4 OpenAI set itself apart from Anthropic by widely releasing its new modelIt’s releasing GPT-5.5 to all ChatGPT users, despite cybersecurity concerns. (NYT $)+ OpenAI says the new model is better at coding and more efficient. (The Verge)5 Meta is cutting 10% of jobs to offset AI spendingRoughly 8,000 layoffs are set to be announced on May 20. (QZ)+ Anti-AI protests are growing. (MIT Technology Review)6 Palantir is facing a backlash from employeesThanks to its work with ICE and the Trump administration. (Wired $)+ Surveillance tech is reshaping the fight for privacy. (MIT Technology Review)7 The era of free access to advanced AI is coming to an endAI labs are under mounting pressure to start turning profits. (The Verge)8 Elon Musk’s feud with Sam Altman is heading to court The case has already revealed several unflattering secrets. (WP $)9 A new movement is encouraging people to ditch their smartphones for a month“Month Offline” is like a Dry January for smartphones. (The Atlantic)10 Spotify has revealed its most-streamed music of the last 20 yearsFeaturing Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, and The Weeknd. (Gizmodo)  Quote of the day “We want a childhood where children get to be children. Play, friendships, and everyday life must not be taken over by algorithms and screens.”  —Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store announces age restrictions for social media.

One More Thing NASA/JPL-CALTECH VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS; CRAFT NASA/JPL-CALTECH/SWRI/MSSS; IMAGE PROCESSING: KEVIN M. GILL The search for extraterrestrial life is targeting Jupiter’s icy moon Europa As astronomers have discovered more about Europa over the past few decades, Jupiter’s fourth-largest moon has excited planetary scientists interested in the geophysics of alien worlds.  All that water and energy—and hints of elements essential for building organic molecules —point to an extraordinary possibility. In the depths of its ocean, or perhaps crowded in subsurface lakes or below icy surface vents, Jupiter’s big, bright moon could host life.  To find further evidence, NASA is now searching for signs of alien existence on Europa. Read the full story on the mission.

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Health-care AI is here. We don’t know if it actually helps patients.

I don’t need to tell you that AI is everywhere. Or that it is being used, increasingly, in hospitals. Doctors are using AI to help them with notetaking. AI-based tools are trawling through patient records, flagging people who may require certain support or treatments. They are also used to interpret medical exam results and X-rays. A growing number of studies suggest that many of these tools can deliver accurate results. But there’s a bigger question here: Does using them actually translate into better health outcomes for patients? We don’t yet have a good answer.
That’s what Jenna Wiens, a computer scientist at the University of Michigan, and Anna Goldenberg of the University of Toronto, argue in a paper published in the journal Nature Medicine this week. Wiens tells me she has spent years investigating how AI might benefit health care. For the first decade of her career she tried to pitch the technology to clinicians. Over the last few years, she says, it’s as though “a switch flipped.” Health-care providers not only appear much more interested in the promise of these technologies, they have also begun rapidly deploying them.
The problem is that many providers aren’t rigorously assessing how well they actually work. Take “ambient AI” tools, for example. Also known as AI scribes, they “listen” to conversations between doctors and patients, then transcribe and summarize them. Multiple tools are available, and they are already being widely adopted by health-care providers. A few months ago, a staffer at a major New York medical center who develops AI tools for doctors told me that, anecdotally, medics are “overjoyed” by the technology—it allows them to focus all their attention on their patients during appointments, and it saves them from a lot of time-consuming paperwork. Early studies support these anecdotes and suggest that the tools can reduce clinician burnout. That’s all well and good. But what about patient health outcomes? “[Researchers] have evaluated provider or clinician and patient satisfaction, but not really how these tools are affecting clinical decision-making,” says Wiens. “We just don’t know.” The same holds true for other AI-based technologies used in health-care settings. Some are used to predict patients’ health trajectories, others to recommend treatments. They are designed to make health care more effective and efficient. But even a tool that is “accurate” won’t necessarily improve health outcomes. AI might speed up the interpretation of a chest X-ray, for example. But how much will a doctor rely on its analysis? How will that tool affect the way a doctor interacts with patients or recommends treatment? And ultimately: What will this mean for those patients? The answers to those questions might vary between hospitals or departments and could depend on clinical workflows, says Wiens. They might also differ between doctors at various stages of their careers. Take the AI scribes, as another example. Some research on AI use in education suggests that such tools can impact the way people cognitively process information. Could they affect the way a doctor processes a patient’s information? Will the tools affect the way medical students think about patient data in a way that impacts care? These questions need to be explored, says Wiens. “We like things that save us time, but we have to think about the unintended consequences of this,” she says.

In a study published in January 2025, Paige Nong at the University of Minnesota and her colleagues found that around 65% of US hospitals used AI-assisted predictive tools. Only two-thirds of those hospitals evaluated their accuracy. Even fewer assessed them for bias. The number of hospitals using these tools has probably increased since then, says Wiens. Those hospitals, or entities other than the companies developing the tools, need to evaluate how much they help in specific settings. There’s a possibility that they could leave patients worse off, although it’s more likely that AI tools just aren’t as beneficial as health-care providers might assume they are, says Wiens. “I do believe in the potential of AI to really improve clinical care,” says Wiens, who stresses that she doesn’t want to stop the adoption of AI tools in health care. She just wants more information about how they are affecting people. “I have to believe that in the future it’s not all AI or no AI,” she says. “It’s somewhere in between.” This article first appeared in The Checkup, MIT Technology Review’s weekly biotech newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Thursday, and read articles like this first, sign up here. 

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Automations

Codex can automatically run tasks on a schedule.This makes Codex proactive. Instead of waiting for you to come back and ask for an update, Codex can return at the scheduled time, do the work, and surface the result for you to review.This is useful for recurring work, like preparing for the day, reviewing what changed, checking for updates, summarizing recent activity, or creating a weekly report.For example, you might use a thread automation to:Write a weekly review every FridayCreate a morning brief from yesterday’s workSummarize new files added to a folderClean up a weekly data exportCheck for missing or inconsistent informationCreate a recurring project status updateSome automations can also return to the same conversation and continue from the context already there. That is especially useful when you want Codex to pick up an ongoing task instead of starting fresh each time.A good automation is specific, repeatable, and easy to review.For example:Try itEvery Monday morning, return to this conversation and help me plan the week based on my current notes, drafts, and priorities.Try itEvery Friday, review my recent work and write a short summary of what I finished this week, what is still open, and what needs attention next.Note: If you’re running Codex locally, automations work best when your laptop is awake and Codex is running.Start by chatting back and forth with Codex to zero in on the exact kind of behavior and output you’re looking for. Once Codex understands exactly what you need, turn that task into an automation.

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Decoupled DiLoCo: A new frontier for resilient, distributed AI training

Decoupled DiLoCo is not only more resilient to failures, but is also practical for executing production-level, fully distributed pre-training. We successfully trained a 12 billion parameter model across four separate U.S. regions using 2-5 Gbps of wide-area networking (a level relatively achievable using existing internet connectivity between datacenter facilities, rather than requiring new custom network infrastructure between facilities). Notably, the system achieved this training result more than 20 times faster than conventional synchronization methods. This is because our system incorporates required communication into longer periods of computation, avoiding the “blocking” bottlenecks where one part of the system must wait for another.Driving the evolution of AI training infrastructureAt Google, we take a full-stack approach to AI training, spanning hardware, software infrastructure and research. Increasingly, gains are coming from rethinking how these layers fit together.Decoupled DiLoCo is one example. By enabling training jobs at internet-scale bandwidth, it can tap any unused compute wherever it sits, turning stranded resources into useful capacity.Beyond efficiency and resilience, this training paradigm also unlocks the ability to mix different hardware generations, such as TPU v6e and TPU v5p, in a single training run. This approach not only extends the useful life of existing hardware, but also increases the total compute available for model training. In our experiments, chips from different generations running at different speeds still matched the ML performance of single-chip-type training runs, ensuring that even older hardware can meaningfully accelerate AI training.What’s more, because new generations of hardware don’t arrive everywhere all at once, being able to train across generations can alleviate recurring logistical and capacity bottlenecks.As we push the frontiers of AI infrastructure today, we’re continuing to explore approaches to resilient systems needed to unlock the next generation of AI.

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The Download: introducing the Nature issue

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Introducing: the Nature issue When we talk about “nature,” we usually mean something untouched by humans. But little of that world exists today.  From microplastics in rainforest wildlife to artificial light in the Arctic Ocean, human influence now reaches every corner of Earth. In this context, what even is nature? And should we employ technology to try to make the world more “natural”?   In our new Nature issue, MIT Technology Review grapples with these questions. We investigate birds that can’t sing, wolves that aren’t wolves, and grass that isn’t grass. We look for the meaning of life under Arctic ice, within ourselves, and in the far future on a distant world, courtesy of new fiction by the renowned author Jeff VanderMeer. 
Together, these stories examine how technology has altered our planet—and how it might be used to repair it. Subscribe now to read the full print issue. What’s next for large language models? After ChatGPT launched in late 2022, the OpenAI chatbot became an everyday everything app for hundreds of millions of people. It led to LLMs being heralded as the new future. The entire tech industry was consumed by the inferno, with companies racing to spin up rival products.
But what’s the next big thing after LLMs? More LLMs—but better. Let’s call them LLMs+. Find out how they’re set to become cheaper, more efficient, and more powerful. —Will Douglas Heaven LLMs+ is on our list of the 10 Things That Matter in AI Right Now, MIT Technology Review’s guide to what’s really worth your attention in the busy, buzzy world of AI. We’ll be unpacking one item from the list each day here in The Download, so stay tuned. Will fusion power get cheap? Don’t count on it. Fusion power could provide a steady, zero-emissions source of electricity in the future—if companies can get plants built and running. But a new study published in Nature Energy suggests that even if that future arrives, it might not come cheap. The research team aimed to improve predictions of fusion’s future price by estimating the technology’s experience rate—the percentage by which its cost declines every time capacity doubles. Their findings offer new clues on the technology’s path to deployment. Read the full story. —Casey Crownhart This story is from The Spark, our weekly climate newsletter. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday. The must-reads

I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 Trump signaled he’s open to reversing the Anthropic banWhat that really means in practice remains to be seen. (Reuters $)+ Anthropic says there’s no “kill switch” for its AI. (Axios)+ “Humans in the loop” in AI warfare is an illusion. (MIT Technology Review) 2 SpaceX plans to manufacture its own GPUsTo support the company’s growing AI ambitions. (Reuters $)+ Musk is shifting SpaceX’s focus from Mars to AI ahead of its IPO. (NYT $)+ SpaceX and Tesla may be on a collision course. (FT $)3 Chinese tech giant Tencent has unveiled its first flagship AI modelA former OpenAI researcher is at the helm. (SCMP)+ Chinese open models are spreading fast. (MIT Technology Review)4 High earners are racing ahead on AI, deepening workplace dividesThe division in adoption risks widening inequality. (FT $)+ Startups are bragging they spend more on AI than staff. (404 Media)5 Thousands of Samsung workers are demanding a new share of AI profitsChip-division employees want 15% of the operating profit. (Bloomberg $)+ Here’s why opinion on AI is so divided. (MIT Technology Review)6 AI is helping mediocre Korean hackers steal millionsThey’re vibe coding their malware. (Wired $)+ AI is making online crimes easier. (MIT Technology Review)7 Kalshi suspended three political candidates for betting on their own racesIncluding a Democrat and a Republican running for Congress. (CNN)+ And an independent candidate who said he did it to make a point. (Gizmodo)+ Lawmakers argue that prediction markets are a loophole for gambling. (NPR)8 A ping-pong robot is beating elite human players for the first timeThe Sony AI system was trained with reinforcement learning. (New Scientist)+ Just days earlier, a humanoid smashed the human half-marathon record. (AP)9 Crypto scammers are luring ships into the Strait of HormuzBy falsely promising safe passage. (Ars Technica)10 ‘Age tech’ could help us grow old comfortably at homeApps, wearables, and remote monitoring could fill caregiving gaps. (NYT $) Quote of the day “It’s a hallucinogenic business plan.” —Ross Gerber, the chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki, an investment firm that owns SpaceX shares, tells the New York Times that he’s unimpressed by Musk’s changing goals for the aerospace company.  One More Thing AP PHOTO/LINDSEY WASSON This grim but revolutionary DNA technology is changing how we respond to mass disasters After hundreds went missing in Maui’s deadly fires, victims were identified with rapid DNA analysis—an increasingly vital tool for putting names to the dead in mass-casualty events. The technology helped identify victims within just a few hours and bring families some closure more quickly than ever before. But it also previews a dark future marked by the rising frequency of catastrophic events.
Find out how this forensic breakthrough is preparing us for a more volatile world. —Erika Hayasaki We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line.)+ This fascinating dive into botanical history reveals the origins of the first true plants.+ Here’s how to use Google’s reference desk to find what ordinary search engines miss.+ Watch duct tape get deconstructed to reveal the physics behind its legendary stickiness.+ When Radiohead covers Joy Division, the result is a beautiful intersection of two legendary musical eras.

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Will fusion power get cheap? Don’t count on it.

Fusion power could provide a steady, zero-emissions source of electricity in the future—if companies can get plants built and running. But a new study suggests that even if that future arrives, it might not come cheap. Technologies tend to get less expensive over time. Lithium-ion batteries are now about 90% cheaper than they were in 2013. But historically, different technologies tend to go through this curve at different rates. And the cost of fusion might not sink as quickly as the prices of batteries or solar. It’s tricky to make any predictions about the cost of a technology that doesn’t exist yet. But when there’s billions of dollars of public and private funding on the line, it’s worth considering what assumptions we’re making about our future energy mix and its cost. One crucial measure is a metric called experience rate—the percentage by which an energy technology’s cost declines every time capacity doubles. A higher figure means a quicker price drop and better economic gains with scaling.
Historically, the experience rate is 12% for onshore wind power, 20% for lithium-ion batteries, and 23% for solar modules. Other energy technologies haven’t gotten cheap quite as quickly—fission is at just 2%. In the new study, published in Nature Energy, researchers aimed to improve predictions of fusion’s future price by estimating the technology’s experience rate. The team looked at three key characteristics that can correlate with experience rate: unit size, design complexity, and the need for customization. The larger and more complex a technology is, and/or the more it needs to be customized for different use cases, the lower the experience rate.
The researchers interviewed fusion experts, including public-sector researchers and those working at companies in the private sector. They had the experts evaluate fusion power plants on those characteristics and used that info to predict the experience rate. (One note here: The study focused only on magnetic confinement and laser inertial confinement, two of the leading fusion approaches, which together receive the vast majority of funding today. Other approaches could come with different cost benefits.) Fusion plants will likely be relatively large, similar to other types of facilities (like coal and fission power plants) that rely on generating heat. They will probably need less customization than fission plants—largely because regulations and safety considerations should be simpler—but more than technologies like solar panels. And as for complexity, “there was almost unanimous agreement that fusion is incredibly complex,” says Lingxi Tang, a PhD candidate in the energy and technology policy group at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and one of the authors of the study. (Some experts said it was literally off the scale the researchers gave them.) The final figure the researchers suggest for fusion’s experience rate is between 2% and 8%, meaning it will see a faster price reduction than nuclear power but not as dramatic an improvement as many common energy technologies being deployed today. That means that it would take a lot of deployment—and likely quite a long time—for the price of building a fusion reactor to drop significantly, so electricity produced by fusion plants could be expensive for a while. And it’s a much slower rate than the 8% to 20% that many modeling studies assume today. “On the whole, I think questions should be raised about current investment levels in fusion,” Tang says. (The US allocated over $1 billion to fusion in the 2024 fiscal year, and private-sector funding totaled $2.2 billion between July 2024 and July 2025.) “If you’re talking about decarbonization of the energy system, is this really the best use of public money?” But some experts say that looking to the past to understand the future of energy prices might be misleading.“It’s a good exercise, but we have to be humble about how much we don’t know,” says Egemen Kolemen, a professor at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. In 2000, many analysts predicted that solar power would remain expensive—but then production exploded and prices came crashing down, largely because China went all in, he says. “People weren’t exactly wrong then,” he adds. “They were just extrapolating what they saw into the future.” How fast prices drop depends on regulations, geopolitical dynamics, and labor cost, he says: “We haven’t built the thing yet, so we don’t know.” This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here.

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China leads global oil stockpiles in 2025

China, the United States, and Japan held the world’s largest strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a recent note.  The EIA examined significant global buildup in strategic oil inventories as of December 2025, prior to the International Energy Agency (IEA)-coordinated emergency release in March 2026 triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These reserves—first established by OECD countries in the 1970s—continue to serve as a critical buffer against supply shocks. China holds the largest volume of oil inventories globally. EIA estimates about 360 million bbl in government-held stocks and roughly 1 billion bbl in commercial inventories, bringing its total to nearly 1.4 billion bbl. The agency said China added about 1.1 million b/d to inventories in 2025, reflecting an aggressive stockpiling strategy. The US follows, with about 413 million bbl in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as of December 2025, alongside more than 400 million bbl in commercial crude stocks, EIA said. Japan ranks third, holding 263 million bbl in government reserves, with an additional 220 million bbl required under Japan’s Oil Stockpiling Act. OECD Europe held about 179 million bbl, and South Korea maintained roughly 79 million bbl.  Among non-OECD countries, estimates are less transparent, EIA noted. Saudi Arabia held about 82 million bbl, Iran 71 million bbl, and the UAE 34 million bbl in on-land inventories, while India’s SPR totaled 21.4 million bbl, with plans to expand storage capacity domestically and abroad. Global estimates remain conservative due to limited transparency and varying definitions of “strategic” inventories, EIA said. In most countries, only government or national oil company holdings are counted, though China is a key exception where commercial inventories are included due to state-directed stockpiling. EIA plans to update its assessment periodically in its Short-Term Energy Outlook beginning this May.

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Ecopetrol agrees to acquire equity stake in Brava Energia with plans for increased ownership

State-owned Ecopetrol SA, Bogotá, Colombia, has agreed to acquire a 26% equity stake in Brava Energia SA from a group of shareholders and plans to launch a tender offer to increase its ownership to 51%, which would give it control of the Brazilian oil and gas independent. The move would add exposure to roughly 81,000 boe/d of production and 459 MMboe of reserves, expanding Ecopetrol’s footprint in Brazil. Ecopetrol entered into share purchase agreement with Jive, Yellowstone, and Bloco Somah Printemps Quantum, which together constitute a group holding about 26% of the outstanding common shares of Brava Energia. Brava Energia, the second-largest independent company listed in the Brazilian market in terms of reserves and production, was incorporated in 2024 from the merger between 3R Petroleum Óleo e Gás SA and Enauta Participações SA. Completion of the deal is subject to certain conditions, including, among others, approval by Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), the grant of certain waivers and consents considering Brava’s financing instruments and relevant commercial agreements, as well as the purchase by Ecopetrol SA, or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the Ecopetrol Group, of the number of shares required to achieve a 51% controlling stake of Brava’s voting share capital. Ecopetrol plans to launch a voluntary tender offer on the B3 stock exchange in Brazil to buy additional shares to reach 51% controlling stake at R$23.00 per share, subject to regulatory requirements and certain conditions. Ecopetrol in Brazil In Brazil, Ecopetrol, through subsidiary Ecopetrol Óleo e Gás do Brasil Ltda., holds 30% interest in 11 blocks in the southern area of Santos basin in consortium with Shell Brasil Petróleo Ltda. (operator, 70%).  The company also holds a 30% non-operated interest in Gato do Mato (BM-S-54) and Sul de Gato do Mato (production sharing agreement), which

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Golden Pass LNG ships first export cargo

Editor’s Note: Updated Apr. 23 to include information provided by the US Energy Information Administration.  Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil Corp., has loaded and shipped its first LNG export cargo from the plant in Sabine Pass, Tex. The departure comes following first LNG production from Train 1 late last month. Once fully operational, Golden Pass LNG expects to export about 18 million tons/year (tpy) of LNG. Golden Pass LNG is the 10th LNG plant in the US, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in a separate release Apr. 23. It is the only new US LNG export plant currently expected to begin LNG shipments this year, EIA said. Construction and commissioning continue on Trains 2 and 3, which are expected to come online in turn, following stable operation of Train 1. EIA noted Golden Pass aims to start up Train 2 in second-half 2026 and Train 3 in first-half 2027. QatarEnergy holds 70% interest in Golden Pass LNG, while ExxonMobil holds the remaining 30%. LNG demand  ExxonMobil forecasts natural gas demand to rise 20% by 2050 and LNG demand to rise by 3% per year through 2050. The operator is developing four LNG projects and, by 2030, expects to double its supply compared to 2020 to more than 40 million tpy.

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The missing step between hype and profit

This story originally appeared in The Algorithm, our weekly newsletter on AI. To get stories like this in your inbox first, sign up here. In February, I picked up a flyer at an anti-AI march in London. I can’t say for sure whether or not its writers meant to riff on South Park’s underpants gnomes. But if they did, they nailed it: “Step 1: Grow a digital super mind,” it read. “Step 2: ? Step 3: ?” Produced by Pause AI, an international activist group that co-organized the protest, it ended with this plea to the reader: “Pause AI until we know what the hell Step 2 is.”  In the South Park episode “Gnomes,” which first aired in 1998, Kenny, Kyle, Cartman, and Stan discover a community of gnomes that sneak out at night to steal underpants from dressers. Why? The gnomes present their pitch deck. “Phase 1: Collect underpants. Phase 2: ? Phase 3: Profit.”
The gnomes’ business plan has since become one of the greats among internet memes, used to satirize everything from startup strategies to policy proposals. Memelord in chief Elon Musk once invoked it in a talk about how he planned to fund a mission to Mars. Right now, it captures the state of AI. Companies have built the tech (Step 1) and promised transformation (Step 3). How they get there is still a big question mark. As far as Pause AI is concerned, Step 2 must involve some kind of regulation. But exactly what it will call for and who will enforce it are up for debate.
AI boosters, on the other hand, are convinced that Step 3 is salvation and tend to glaze over the middle bit. They see us racing toward sunny uplands on the back of an “economically transformative technology,” as OpenAI’s chief scientist, Jakub Pachocki, put it to me a few weeks ago. They know where they want to go—more or less: It’s hazy up there and still some way off. But everyone’s taking a different route. Will they all make it? Will anyone? For every big claim about the future, there is a more sober assessment of how the rubber meets the road—one that quells the hype. Consider two recent studies. One, from Anthropic, predicted what types of jobs are going to be most affected by LLMs. (A takeaway: Managers, architects, and people in the media should prepare for change; groundskeepers, construction workers, and those in hospitality, not so much.) But their predictions are really just guesses, based on what kinds of tasks LLMs seem to be good at rather than how they really perform in the workplace.    Another study, put out in February by researchers at Mercor, an AI hiring startup, tested several AI agents powered by top-tier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind on 480 workplace tasks frequently carried out by human bankers, consultants, and lawyers. Every agent they tested failed to complete most of its duties.    Why is there such wide disagreement? There are a number of factors. For a start, it’s crucial to consider who is making the claims (and why). Anthropic has skin in the game. What’s more, most of the people telling us that something big is about to happen have reached that conclusion largely on the basis of how fast AI coding tools are getting. But not all tasks can be hacked with coding. Other studies have found that LLMs are bad at making strategic judgment calls, for example. What’s more, when they’re deployed, the tools aren’t just dropped into a cleanroom. They need to work in places contaminated with people and existing workflows. And sometimes adding AI will make things worse. Sure, maybe those workflows need to be torn up and refashioned around the new technology for it to achieve transformative status, but that will take time (and guts).   That big hole? It’s right where Step 2 should be. The lack of agreement on exactly what’s about to happen—and how—creates an information vacuum that gets filled by the latest wild claim of the week, evidence be damned. We’re so unmoored from any real understanding of what’s coming and how it will be deployed that a single social media post can (and does) shake markets. We need fewer guesses and more evidence. But that’s going to require transparency from the model makers, coordination between researchers and businesses, and new ways to evaluate this technology that tell us what really happens when it’s rolled out in the real world. The tech industry (and with it the world’s economy) rests on the held-out promise that AI really will be transformative. But that is not yet a sure bet. Next time you hear bold claims about the future, remember that most businesses are still figuring out what to do with their underpants.

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TD Cowen: AI Adoption Is Already Here. Infrastructure Demand Is What Comes Next.

Enterprise AI adoption is no longer emerging. It is already embedded and beginning to scale in ways that will reshape data center demand. The latest TD Cowen GenAI Adoption Survey makes that clear. Across 689 U.S. enterprises, 92% are now using at least one major AI platform, with Microsoft Copilot, Google Gemini, and ChatGPT forming the core triad of daily enterprise tooling. That’s the baseline. The more important story is what comes next. AI is moving quickly from assistive software to autonomous systems, and that shift carries direct implications for compute demand, power consumption, and infrastructure design. From Copilots to Autonomous Systems Today’s enterprise AI footprint is already broad, but it is still largely human-in-the-loop. That is beginning to change. Roughly a third of respondents say they already have semi-autonomous AI agents running in production, while another large cohort is piloting or planning deployments over the next 12 to 18 months. By 2027, more than three-quarters expect to be running AI agents capable of executing multi-step workflows without human intervention. This is not incremental adoption. It is a step-function shift. Autonomous agents don’t just respond to prompts; they execute tasks, interact with enterprise systems, and continuously access data. For data centers, that translates into more persistent, baseline load: exactly the kind of demand profile that stresses power delivery, increases utilization, and accelerates capacity planning timelines. To wit: AI is moving from a bursty workload to a continuous one. ROI Is No Longer the Question At the same time, the debate around AI return on investment is effectively over. Three-quarters of respondents report positive ROI, while only a small minority report negative outcomes. A meaningful share is already seeing multiples of return on their investments. The implication seems straightforward: AI budgets are becoming durable. This is no longer experimental spend that

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Nvidia’s ‘AI insurance policy’ balances immediate and future AI approaches

If you think 2028 is far-out thinking, you’ll love the next thing: quantum computing. Yes, there are systems around today. No, you won’t find enterprises using quantum computing even in specialized missions. Yes, a recent set of reports suggests that quantum computing is not infinitely scalable, as was once believed. Still, the potential for quantum computing is enormous. A quantum system could, in theory, rival a supercomputer in something no bigger than a decent server, but nobody really knows how long it will take to get to that point. So, Nvidia isn’t waiting. Right now, the only way to test out quantum applications is to simulate them, and GPUs are the accepted optimum platform for that. The Nvidia idea is to first support that simulation (their CUDA-Q platform and cuQuantum library), and then to link quantum systems to GPU servers with low-latency paths (NVQlink and DGX Quantum). They even have an initiative to create a coalition of labs and quantum players, similar to what gave rise to the Internet, in their Nvidia Accelerated Quantum Computing Research Center. All this is available in early-access form via Nvidia’s quantum cloud. The real-time and quantum initiatives are getting the most attention, but it’s that little personal chatbot that’s the most critical. AI world models and quantum computers are to AI insurance what a health insurance policy that’s effective in five years is to your own financial planning. That little chatbot can bridge the gap and can be real AI insurance and not just another wave of AI hype. It’s fair to ask why you should care about all of this, if you’re not an Nvidia investor. The answer is that, behind the hype, Nvidia is actually pushing the right AI buttons to help build future business cases. There is real enterprise value being

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