Oil moved higher as traders digested a mix of geopolitical risks that could add a premium to prices while continuing to assess US measures to exert control over Venezuela’s oil. West Texas Intermediate rose 3.2% to settle below $58 a barrel. Prices continued to climb after settlement, rising more than 1% and leaving the market poised to wipe out losses from earlier in the week. President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran “hard” if the country’s government killed protesters amid an ongoing period of unrest. A disruption to Iranian supply would prove an unexpected hurdle in a market that’s currently anticipating a glut of oil. Adding to the bullish momentum, an annual period of commodity index rebalancing is expected to see cash flow back into crude over the next few days. Call skews for Brent have also strengthened as traders pile into the options market to hedge. And entering the day, trend-following commodity trading advisers were 91% short in WTI, according to data from Kpler’s Bridgeton Research group. That positioning can leave traders rushing to cover shorts in the event of a price spike. The confluence of bullish events arrived as traders were weighing the US’s efforts to control the Venezuelan oil industry. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US plans to control sales of Venezuelan oil and would initially offer stored crude, while the Energy Department said barrels already were being marketed. State-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA said it’s in negotiations with Washington over selling crude through a framework similar to an arrangement with Chevron Corp., the only supermajor operating in the country. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump told the New York Times that US oversight of the country could last years and that “the oil will take a while.” “We are really talking about a trade-flow shift as the

OPEC’s crude production held steady in December as a slump in Venezuela’s output to the lowest in two years was offset by increases in Iraq and some other members, a Bloomberg survey showed.  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped an average of just over 29 million barrels a day, little changed from the previous month, according to the survey. Venezuelan output declined by about 14% to 830,000 barrels a day as the US blocked and seized tankers as part of a strategy to pressure the country’s leadership. Supplies increased from Iraq and a few other nations as they pressed on with the last in a series of collective increases before a planned pause in the first quarter of this year. The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, aims to keep output steady through the end of March while global oil markets confront a surplus. World markets have been buffeted this week after President Donald Trump’s administration captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and said it would assume control of the OPEC member’s oil exports indefinitely.  While Trump has said that US oil companies will invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s crumbling energy infrastructure, the nation’s situation in the short term remains precarious. Last month, Caracas was forced to shutter wells at the oil-rich Orinoco Belt amid the American blockade.  The shock move is the latest in an array of geopolitical challenges confronting the broader OPEC+ coalition, ranging from forecasts of a record supply glut to unrest in Iran and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, which is taking a toll on the oil exports of fellow alliance member Kazakhstan. Oil prices are trading near the lowest in five years at just over $60 a barrel in London, squeezing the finances of OPEC+ members. Amid the uncertain backdrop, eight key nations agreed again this month to freeze output levels during the first quarter,

Listen to the article 10 min This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have feedback. 2026 will be a year of reckoning for the electric power industry.  Major policy changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which axed most subsidies for clean energy and electric vehicles, are forcing utilities, manufacturers, developers and others to pivot fast. The impacts of those changes will become more pronounced over the coming months. Market forces will also have their say. Demand for power has never been greater. But some of the most aggressive predictions driving resource planning may not come to pass, leading some to fear the possibility of another tech bubble. At the same time, each passing day brings more distributed energy resources onto the grid, increasing the opportunities — and expectations — for utilities to harness those resources into a more dynamic, flexible and resilient system. Here are some of the top trends Utility Dive will be tracking over the coming year. Large loads — where are they, and who controls their interconnection — dominate industry concerns Across the United States, but particularly in markets like Texas and the Mid-Atlantic, large loads — mainly data centers designed to run artificial intelligence programs — are seeking to connect to the grid, driving up electricity demand forecasts and ballooning interconnection queues. That’s led some states to introduce new large load tariffs to weed out speculative requests, with more states expected to follow suit.  The Department of Energy is now pushing federal regulators to take a more active role in regulating how those loads get connected to the grid, setting the stage for a power struggle between state and federal authorities. The DOE asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to issue rules by April 30, a deadline many say will be hard to meet. A

Leading Chinese oil companies with interests in Venezuela have asked Beijing for guidance on how to protect their investments as Washington cranks up pressure on the Latin American country to increase its economic ties with the US. State-owned firms led by China National Petroleum Corp. raised concerns this week with government agencies and sought advice from officials, in an effort to align their responses with Beijing’s diplomatic strategy and to salvage existing claims to some of the world’s largest oil reserves, according to people familiar with the situation. They asked not to be identified as the discussions are private. The companies, closely monitoring developments even before the US seized President Nicolas Maduro at the weekend, are also conducting their own assessments of the situation on the ground, the people said. Top Beijing officials are separately reviewing events and trying to better understand corporate exposure, while planning for scenarios including a worst case where China’s investments would go to zero, they added.  While it is typical for government-backed firms to maintain close ties with officials in Beijing, the emergency consultations underscore the stakes for Chinese majors, caught off-guard by Washington’s raid and by the rapid escalation of efforts to establish a US sphere of influence in the Americas. Beyond the immediate impact of US actions, all are concerned about long-term prospects, the people said. Chinese companies have established a significant footprint across Latin America over the past decades, including under the Belt and Road Initiative. Venezuela, with few other friends, has been among the most important beneficiaries of this largesse — in part because of its vast oil wealth. China first extended financing for infrastructure and oil projects in 2007, under former President Hugo Chavez. Public data supports estimates that Beijing had lent upwards of $60 billion in oil-backed loans through state-run banks by 2015. 

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 3.8 million barrels from the week ending December 26 to the week ending January 2, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report. This report was released on January 7 and included data for the week ending January 2. According to the report, crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 419.1 million barrels on January 2, 422.9 million barrels on December 26, 2025, and 414.6 million barrels on January 3, 2025. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 413.5 million barrels on January 2, 413.2 million barrels on December 26, and 393.8 million barrels on January 3, 2025, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.707 billion barrels on January 2, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were up 8.4 million barrels week on week and up 78.7 million barrels year on year, the report pointed out. “At 419.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about three percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest weekly petroleum status report. “Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels from last week and are about three percent above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week,” it added. “Distillate fuel inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels last week and are about three percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased 2.2 million barrels from last week and are about 29 percent above the five year

Imperial Oil Ltd said it expects CAD 2-2.2 billion ($1.6 billion) in capital and exploration expenditure for next year, compared to CAD 1.9-2.1 billion for this year. The Canadian oil sands-focused producer, majority-owned by Exxon Mobil Corp, earlier announced a cost-saving restructuring plan. “The company’s strategy remains focused on maximizing the value of its existing assets and progressing advantaged high-value growth opportunities while delivering industry-leading returns to shareholders”, Imperial said in a guidance statement. Imperial expects a gross production of 441,000-460,000 gross oil equivalent barrels per day (boed) in 2026. In the first nine months of 2025, Imperial averaged 436,000 boed gross, according to its third quarter report October 31. While that fell short of the upper end of its 2025 projection of 433,000-456,000 boed, the third quarter figure was 462,000 boed, the company’s highest quarterly output in over 30 years with Kearl recording its highest-ever quarterly gross production at 316,000 barrels per day (bpd). “Higher volumes reflect reliability improvements and continued growth at Kearl and Cold Lake, progressing towards targets of 300,000 and 165,000 barrels per day respectively”, Imperial said of its production forecast for 2026. “Turnarounds are planned at Cold Lake, Syncrude and at Kearl, where planned work at the K1 plant will extend the turnaround interval from two years to four years”. Next year Imperial “will progress secondary bitumen recovery projects at Kearl, high-value infill drilling and Mahihkan SA-SAGD at Cold Lake and mine progression at both Kearl and Syncrude”, the company said. Downstream, Imperial expects to process 395,000-405,000 bpd with a utilization rate of 91-93 percent. “The company is planning to complete turnarounds at Strathcona and Sarnia”, Imperial said. “At Strathcona, the work will focus on the crude unit, after achieving its longest-ever run length of 10 years. “Imperial continues to focus on further improving and maximizing