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The Download: mysteries of the immunome, and how to choose a climate tech pioneer

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. How healthy am I? My immunome knows the score.   Made up of 1.8 trillion cells and trillions more proteins, metabolites, mRNA, and other biomolecules, every person’s immunome is different, and it is constantly changing.It’s shaped by everything we have ever been exposed to physically and emotionally, and powerfully influences everything from our vulnerability to viruses and cancer to how well we age to whether we tolerate certain foods better than others.Yet as critical as the immunome is to each of us, it has remained largely beyond the reach of modern medicine. Now, thanks to a slew of new technologies, understanding this vital and mysterious system is within our grasp, paving the way for powerful new tools and tests to help us better assess, diagnose and treat diseases. Read the full story. —David Ewing Duncan
The story is a collaboration between MIT Technology Review and Aventine, a non-profit research foundation that creates and supports content about how technology and science are changing the way we live.
3 takeaways about climate tech right now On Monday, we published our 2025 edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch. Curating this list gives our team a chance to take a step back and consider the broader picture. What industries are making progress or lagging behind? Which countries or regions are seeing quick changes? Who’s likely to succeed?  This year is an especially interesting moment in the climate tech world, something we grappled with while choosing companies. Here are three of the biggest takeaways from the process of building this list. —Casey Crownhart This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here. 2025 climate tech companies to watch: Cemvision and its low-emissions cement Cement is one of the most used materials on the planet, and the industry emits billions of tons of greenhouse gasses annually. Swedish startup Cemvision wants to use waste materials and alternative fuels to help reduce climate pollution from cement production. Read the full story.

—Casey Crownhart Cemvision is one of our 10 climate tech companies to watch—our annual list of some of the most promising climate tech firms on the planet. Check out the rest of the list here. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 OpenAI wasn’t expecting its Sora copyright backlash  CEO Sam Altman says the company will reverse course and “let rightsholders decide how to proceed.” (The Verge)+ It appears to be struggling to work out which requests to approve right now. (404 Media)+ Sam Altman says video IP is a lot trickier than for images. (Insider $)+ What comes next for AI copyright lawsuits? (MIT Technology Review) 2 Apple has removed another ICE app from its storeThis one archives video evidence of abuses, rather than tracking officers’ locations. (404 Media)+ Another effort to track ICE raids was just taken offline. (MIT Technology Review)3 How private firms are helping economists work out what’s going onIn the absence of economic data from the US government, experts are getting creative. (WP $)+ How to fine-tune AI for prosperity. (MIT Technology Review) 4 China is cracking down on its rare earth exportsIt’s keen to protect its leverage over the critical minerals. (FT $)+ This rare earth metal shows us the future of our planet’s resources. (MIT Technology Review)
5 Microsoft wants to become a chatbot powerhouse in its own rightWhich means lessening its dependence on OpenAI. (WSJ $) 6 High schoolers are starting romantic relationships with AI modelsIt’s a whole new issue for schools and parents to grapple with. (NPR)+ It’s surprisingly easy to stumble into a relationship with an AI chatbot. (MIT Technology Review)
7 Those Prime Day savings are often too good to be trueBuyer beware. (WP $) 8 The future of the AI boom hinges on a small Dutch cityChipmaker ASML is planning a massive expansion—but is the surrounding area ready to support it? (Bloomberg $)+ Welcome to robot city. (MIT Technology Review) 9 Ferrari’s first electric car is on the horizonIt’s expected to go on sale next year. (Reuters)+ It sports four motors and more than 1,000 horsepower. (Ars Technica)10 Inside the enduring appeal of The SimsKeeping a house full of angry little materialists alive is still lots of fun. (NYT $) Quote of the day “The ICE raid is just the cherry on top. How is anybody going to trust us going forward?”
—Betony Jones, a senior fellow at the Roosevelt Institute think tank, tells IEEE Spectrum how an ICE raid on a Hyundai EV factory in Georgia has shaken the industry. One more thing The flawed logic of rushing out extreme climate solutionsEarly in 2022, entrepreneur Luke Iseman says, he released a pair of sulfur dioxide–filled weather balloons from Mexico’s Baja California peninsula, in the hope that they’d burst miles above Earth.It was a trivial act in itself, effectively a tiny, DIY act of solar geoengineering, the controversial proposal that the world could counteract climate change by releasing particles that reflect more sunlight back into space.
Entrepreneurs like Iseman invoke the stark dangers of climate change to explain why they do what they do—even if they don’t know how effective their interventions are. But experts say that urgency doesn’t create a social license to ignore the underlying dangers or leapfrog the scientific process. Read the full story. —James Temple We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + What language did residents of the ancient Mesoamerican city of Teotihuacan speak? We’re finally starting to find out.+ If you’re unsure whether an animal is safe to pet, this handy guide is a good starting point.+ The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s new ancient Egypt exhibition sounds brilliant.+ This story digging into the psychology experiment behind Star Wars’ special effects is completely bonkers.

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Uniper Inks 7-Year Deal for Biomethane Supply from Spain

Uniper SE has signed an agreement with Fivebioenergy SL for supply from three of Spain’s biggest biomethane projects for seven years. The Madrid-based developer will start deliveries 2027, a joint statement said, without disclosing the contract volume. “This agreement places Uniper in a strong position to complement the growing share of renewables with low-carbon energy sources and to accelerate the decarbonization of both road and maritime sectors”, the statement said. “It is a significant milestone in the ongoing commitment to delivering reliable, sustainable energy to customers across Europe. “To support the import of renewable and low-carbon gases, Uniper is expanding its portfolio accordingly. “Next to hydrogen and its derivates, biomethane plays a crucial role in achieving a sustainable energy mix”. Five Bioenergy chief information officer Ivan Copin said the agreement with the German power and gas utility “secures a stable market for our biomethane while reinforcing our vision of a decarbonized Europe powered by renewable energy”. All three plants in the agreement are to rise in Murcia, the statement said. Earlier this year Five Bioenergy contracted HoSt Energy Systems to deliver five of the biggest biogas plants in Spain. The projects in the regions of Castilla Leon, Aragon and Murcia will include biogas upgrading systems for nearly 0.8 terawatt hours of biomethane production and carbon dioxide (CO2) liquefaction plants to recover and liquefy the CO2 from the anaerobic digestion process, HoSt said in a statement April 7. Two of the projects under construction in Lorca and Milagros will process a total of up to 387,000 metric tons of agricultural residues including cow, sheep and poultry manure, alongside expired food such as slaughterhouse waste and distillery waste, HoSt said. “The feedstock is supplied by local farmers who get value for their waste as the digestate, the digested matter, from the biogas plant is converted

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BMI Flags Trends It Says Will Shape Future of Oil, Gas

A BMI “megatrends analysis” sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group this week highlighted “key trends within trade and globalization which will shape the future of the oil and gas industry until 2050”. One of these trends is that “divergent climate policies drive carbon-differentiated oil and gas trade”, the report pointed out. “Divergent decarbonization pathways and cyclical stop-start climate action will reshape global oil and gas markets,” a description of the trend in the report noted. “As governments pursue differing policy mixes, trade will fragment, forming loose blocs defined by carbon intensity and regulatory alignment. After decades of deepening integration, fungibility will give way to a more fractured energy system,” it added. Looking at the “winners” of this trend, the report flagged “low-carbon producers and exporters and those with carbon-management capabilities that can capture price premia”. It also highlighted “oilfield services and technology providers offering carbon management solutions, efficiency and electrification technologies and emissions certification and compliance services”, “trading intermediaries and financial institutions exploiting policy-driven arbitrage and structuring products around carbondifferentiated trade”, and “carbon accounting and MRV providers supplying emissions monitoring, verification and certification services”. The report flagged “high-carbon producers and exporters with limited carbon-management capabilities that face structural discounts on their O&G” as “losers” of the trend. “Oilfield services and technology providers tied to high-emissions operations with limited capacity to diversify geographically or technologically” and “capital providers and insurers exposed to carbon-intensive assets at increased risk of asset stranding” were also predicted to lose out in the report. Another trend highlighted in the report is that “energy security fears lead to a restructured oil and gas trade”. “The continuing global fragmentation into a multipolar world order would divide up existing trade blocs and necessitate a re-routing of vital energy supplies from allied states,” the report noted in a description

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How healthy am I? My immunome knows the score.  

The story is a collaboration between MIT Technology Review and Aventine, a non-profit research foundation that creates and supports content about how technology and science are changing the way we live. It’s not often you get a text about the robustness of your immune system, but that’s what popped up on my phone last spring. Sent by John Tsang, an immunologist at Yale, the text came after his lab had put my blood through a mind-boggling array of newfangled tests. The result—think of it as a full-body, high-resolution CT scan of my immune system—would reveal more about the state of my health than any test I had ever taken. And it could potentially tell me far more than I wanted to know. “David,” the text read, “you are the red dot.” Tsang was referring to an image he had attached to the text that showed a graph with a scattering of black dots representing other people whose immune systems had been evaluated—and a lone red one. There also was a score: 0.35. I had no idea what any of this meant. The red dot was the culmination of an immuno-quest I had begun on an autumn afternoon a few months earlier, when a postdoc in Tsang’s lab drew several vials of my blood. It was also a significant milestone in a decades-long journey I’ve taken as a journalist covering life sciences and medicine. Over the years, I’ve offered myself up as a human guinea pig for hundreds of tests promising new insights into my health and mortality. In 2001, I was one of the first humans to have my DNA sequenced. Soon after, in the early 2000s, researchers tapped into my proteome—proteins circulating in my blood. Then came assessments of my microbiome, metabolome, and much more. I have continued to test-drive the latest protocols and devices, amassing tens of terabytes of data on myself, and I’ve reported on the results in dozens of articles and a book called Experimental Man. Over time, the tests have gotten better and more informative, but no test I had previously taken promised to deliver results more comprehensive or closer to revealing the truth about my underlying state of health than what John Tsang was offering.
Over the years, I’ve offered myself up as a human guinea pig for hundreds of tests promising new insights into my health and mortality. But no test I had previously taken promised to deliver results more comprehensive or closer to revealing the truth about my underlying state of health. It also was not lost on me that I’m now 20-plus years older than I was when I took those first tests. Back in my 40s, I was ridiculously healthy. Since then, I’ve been battered by various pathogens, stresses, and injuries, including two bouts of covid and long covid—and, well, life. But I’d kept my apprehensions to myself as Tsang, a slim, perpetually smiling man who directs the Yale Center for Systems and Engineering Immunology, invited me into his office in New Haven to introduce me to something called the human immunome.
John Tsang has helped create a new test for your immune system. JULIE BIDWELL Made up of 1.8 trillion cells and trillions more proteins, metabolites, mRNA, and other biomolecules, every person’s immunome is different, and it is constantly changing. It’s shaped by our DNA, past illnesses, the air we have breathed, the food we have eaten, our age, and the traumas and stresses we have experienced—in short, everything we have ever been exposed to physically and emotionally. Right now, your immune system is hard at work identifying and fending off viruses and rogue cells that threaten to turn cancerous—or maybe already have. And it is doing an excellent job of it all, or not, depending on how healthy it happens to be at this particular moment. Yet as critical as the immunome is to each of us, this universe of cells and molecules has remained largely beyond the reach of modern medicine—a vast yet inaccessible operating system that powerfully influences everything from our vulnerability to viruses and cancer to how well we age to whether we tolerate certain foods better than others. Now, thanks to a slew of new technologies and to scientists like Tsang, who is on the Steering Committee of the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub New York, understanding this vital and mysterious system is within our grasp, paving the way for powerful new tools and tests to help us better assess, diagnose and treat diseases. Already, new research is revealing patterns in the ways our bodies respond to stress and disease. Scientists are creating contrasting portraits of weak and robust immunomes—portraits that someday, it’s hoped, could offer new insights into patient care and perhaps detect illnesses before symptoms appear. There are plans afoot to deploy this knowledge and technology on a global scale, which would enable scientists to observe the effects of climate, geography, and countless other factors on the immunome. The results could transform what it means to be healthy and how we identify and treat disease. It all begins with a test that can tell you whether your immune system is healthy or not. Reading the immunome Sitting in his office last fall, Tsang—a systems immunologist whose expertise combines computer science and immunology— began my tutorial in immunomics by introducing me to a study that he and his team wrote up in a 2024 paper published in Nature Medicine. It described the results of measurements made on blood samples taken from 270 subjects—tests similar to the ones Tsang’s team would be running on me. In the study, Tsang and his colleagues looked at the immune systems of 228 patients diagnosed with a variety of genetic disorders and a control group of 42 healthy people.
To help me visualize what my results might look like, Tsang opened his laptop to reveal several colorful charts from the study, punctuated by black dots representing each person evaluated. The results reminded me vaguely of abstract paintings by Joan Miró. But in place of colorful splotches, whirls, and circles were an assortment of scatter plots, Gantt charts, and heat maps tinted in greens, blues, oranges, and purples. It all looked like gibberish to me. Luckily, Tsang was willing to serve as my guide. Flashing his perpetually patient smile, he explained that these colorful jumbles depicted what his team had uncovered about each subject after taking blood samples and assessing the details of how well their immune cells, proteins, mRNA, and other immune system components were doing their job. IBRAHIM RAYINTAKATH The results placed people—represented by the individual dots—on a left-to-right continuum, ranging from those with unhealthy immunomes on the left to those with healthy immunomes on the right. Background colors, meanwhile, were used to identify people with different medical conditions affecting their immune systems. For example, olive-green indicated those with auto-immune disorders; orange backgrounds were designated for individuals with no known disease history. Tsang said he and his team would be placing me on a similar graph after they finished analyzing my blood.
Tsang’s measurements go significantly beyond what can be discerned from the handful of immune biomarkers that people routinely get tested for today. “The main immune cell panel typically ordered by a physician is called a CBC differential,” he told me. CBC, which stands for “complete blood count,” is a decades-old type of analysis that counts levels of red blood cells, hemoglobin, and basic immune cell types (neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, basophils, and eosinophils). Changes in these levels can indicate whether a person’s immune system might be reacting to a virus or other infection, cancer, or something else. Other blood tests—like one that looks for elevated levels of C-reactive protein, which can indicate inflammation associated with heart disease—are more specific than the CBC. But they still rely on blunt counting—in this case of certain proteins. Tsang’s assessment, by contrast, tests up to a million cells, proteins, mRNA and immune biomolecules—significantly more than the CBC and others. His protocol is designed to paint a more holistic portrait of a person’s immune system by not only counting cells and molecules but also by assessing their interactions. The CBC “doesn’t tell me as a physician what the cells being counted are doing,” says Rachel Sparks, a clinical immunologist who was the lead author of the Nature Medicine study and is now a translational medicine physician with the drug giant AstraZeneca. “I just know that there are more neutrophils than normal, which may or may not indicate that they’re behaving badly. We now have technology that allows us to see at a granular level what a cell is actually doing when a virus appears—how it’s changing and reacting.” Tsang’s measurements go significantly beyond what can be discerned from the handful of immune biomarkers that people routinely get tested for today. His assessment tests up to a million cells, proteins, mRNA and immune biomolecules. Such breakthroughs have been made possible thanks to a raft of new and improved technologies that have evolved over the past decade, allowing scientists like Tsang and Sparks to explore the intricacies of the immunome with newfound precision. These include devices that can count myriad different types of cells and biomolecules, as well as advanced sequencers that identify and characterize DNA, RNA, proteins, and other molecules. There are now instruments that also can measure thousands of changes and reactions that occur inside a single immune cell as it reacts to a virus or other threat. Tsang and Spark’s’ team used data generated by such measurements to identify and characterize a series of signals distinctive to unhealthy immune systems. Then they used the presence or absence of these signals to create a numerical assessment of the health of a person’s immunome—a score they call an “immune health metric,” or IHM.
Clinical immunologist Rachel Sparks hopes new tests can improve medical care. JARED SOARES To make sense of the crush of data being collected, Tsang’s team used machine-learning algorithms that correlated the results of the many measurements with a patient’s known health status and age. They also used AI to compare their findings with immune system data collected elsewhere. All this allowed them to determine and validate an IHM score for each person, and to place it on their spectrum, identifying that person as healthy or not. It all came together for the first time with the publication of the Nature Medicine paper, in which Tsang and his colleagues reported the results from testing multiple immune variables in the 270 subjects. They also announced a remarkable discovery: Patients with different kinds of diseases reacted with similar disruptions to their immunomes. For instance, many showed a lower level of the aptly named natural killer immune cells, regardless of what they were suffering from. Critically, the immune profiles of those with diagnosed diseases tended to look very different from those belonging to the outwardly healthy people in the study. And, as expected, immune health declined in the older patients. But then the results got really interesting. In a few cases, the immune systems of  unhealthy and healthy people looked similar, with some people appearing near the “healthy” area of the chart even though they were known to have diseases. Most likely this was because their symptoms were in remission and not causing an immune reaction at the moment when their blood was drawn, Tsang told me.  In other cases, people without a known disease showed up on the chart closer to those who were known to be sick. “Some of these people who appear to be in good health are overlapping with pathology that traditional metrics can’t spot,” says Tsang, whose Nature Medicine paper reported that roughly half the healthy individuals in the study had IHM scores that overlapped with those of people known to be sick. Either these seemingly healthy people had normal immune systems that were busy fending off, say, a passing virus, or  their immune systems had been impacted by aging and the vicissitudes of life. Potentially more worrisome, they were harboring an illness or stress that was not yet making them ill but might do so eventually. These findings have obvious implications for medicine. Spotting a low immune score in a seemingly healthy person could make it possible to identify and start treating an illness before symptoms appear, diseases worsen, or tumors grow and metastasize. IHM-style evaluations could also provide clues as to why some people respond differently to viruses like the one that causes covid, and why vaccines—which are designed to activate a healthy immune system—might not work as well in people whose immune systems are compromised. Spotting a low immune score in a seemingly healthy person could make it possible to identify and start treating an illness before symptoms appear, diseases worsen, or tumors grow and metastasize. “One of the more surprising things about the last pandemic was that all sorts of random younger people who seemed very healthy got sick and then they were gone,” says Mark Davis, a Stanford immunologist who helped pioneer the science being developed in labs like Tsang’s. “Some had underlying conditions like obesity and diabetes, but some did not. So the question is, could we have pointed out that something was off with these folks’ immune systems? Could we have diagnosed that and warned people to take extra precautions?”
Tsang’s IHM test is designed to answer a simple question: What is the relative health of your immune system? But there are other assessments being developed to provide more detailed information on how the body is doing. Tsang’s own team is working on a panel of additional scores aimed at getting finer detail on specific immune conditions. These include a test that measures the health of a person’s bone marrow, which makes immune cells. “If you have a bone marrow stress or inflammatory condition in the bone marrow, you could have lower capacity to produce cells, which will be reflected by this score,” he says. Another detailed metric will measure protein levels to predict how a person will respond to a virus. Tsang hopes that an IHM-style test will one day be part of a standard physical exam—a snapshot of a patient’s immune system that could inform care. For instance, has a period of intense stress compromised the immune system, making it less able to fend off this season’s flu? Will someone’s score predict a better or worse response to a vaccine or a cancer drug? How does a person’s immune system change with age?
Or, as I anxiously wondered while waiting to learn my own score, will the results reveal an underlying disorder or disease, silently ticking away until it shows itself? Toward a human immunome project   The quest to create advanced tests like the IHM for the immune system began more than 15 years ago, when scientists like Mark Davis became frustrated with a field in which research—primarily in mice—was focused mostly on individual immune cells and proteins. In 2007 he launched the Stanford Human Immune Monitoring Center, one of the first efforts to conceptualize the human immunome as a holistic, body-wide network in human beings. Speaking by Zoom from his office in Palo Alto, California, Davis told me that the effort had spawned other projects, including a landmark twin study showing that a lot of immune variation is not genetic, which was then the prevailing theory, but is heavily influenced by environmental factors—a major shift in scientists’ understanding. Shai Shen-Orr sees a day when people will check their immune scores on an app. COURTESY OF SHAI SHEN-ORR Davis and others also laid the groundwork for tests like John Tsang’s by discovering how a T cell—among the most common and important immune players—can recognize pathogens, cancerous cells, and other threats, triggering defensive measures that can include destroying the threat. This and other discoveries have revealed many of the basic mechanics of how immune cells work, says Davis, “but there’s still a lot we have to learn.” One researcher working with Davis in those early days was Shai Shen-Orr, who is now director of the Zimin Institute for AI Solutions in Healthcare at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, based in Haifa, Israel. (He’s also a frequent collaborator with Tsang.) Shen-Orr, like Tsang, is a systems immunologist. He recalls that in 2007, when he was a postdoc in Davis’s lab, immunologists had identified around 100 cell types and a similar number of cytokines—proteins that act as messengers in the immune system. But they weren’t able to measure them simultaneously, which limited visibility into how the immune system works as a whole. Today, Shen-Orr says, immunologists can measure hundreds of cell types and thousands of proteins and watch them interact. Shen-Orr’s current lab has developed its own version of an immunome test that he calls IMM-AGE (short for “immune age”), the basics of which were published in a 2019 paper in Nature Medicine. IMM-AGE looks at the composition of people’s immune systems—how many of each type of immune cell they have and how these numbers change as they age. His team has used this information primarily to ascertain a person’s risk of heart disease. Shen-Orr also has been a vociferous advocate for expanding the pool of test samples, which now come mostly from Americans and Europeans. “We need to understand why different people in different environments react differently and how that works,” he says. “We also need to test a lot more people—maybe millions.” Tsang has seen why a limited sample size can pose problems. In 2013, he says, researchers at the National Institutes of Health came up with a malaria vaccine that was effective for almost everyone who got it during clinical trials conducted in Maryland. “But in Africa,” he says, “it only worked for about 25% of the people.” He attributes this to the significant differences in genetics, diet, climate, and other environmental factors that cause people’s immunomes to develop differently. “Why?” he asks. “What exactly was different about the immune systems in Maryland and Tanzania? That’s what we need to understand so we can design personalized vaccines and treatments.” “What exactly was different about the immune systems in Maryland and Tanzania? That’s what we need to understand so we can design personalized vaccines and treatments.”John Tsang For several years, Tsang and Shen-Orr have advocated going global with testing, “but there has been resistance,” Shen-Orr says. “Look, medicine is conservative and moves slowly, and the technology is expensive and labor intensive.” They finally got the audience they needed at a 2022 conference in La Jolla, California, convened by the Human Immunome Project, or HIP. (The organization was originally founded in 2016 to create more effective vaccines but had recently changed its name to emphasize a pivot from just vaccines to the wider field of immunome science.) It was in La Jolla that they met HIP’s then-new chairperson, Jane Metcalfe, a cofounder of Wired magazine, who saw what was at stake.
“We’ve got all of these advanced molecular immunological profiles being developed,” she said, “but we can’t begin to predict the breadth of immune system variability if we’re  only testing small numbers of people in Palo Alto or Tel Aviv. And that’s when the big aha moment struck us that we need sites everywhere to collect that information so we can build proper computer models and a predictive understanding of the human immune system.” IBRAHIM RAYINTAKATH Following that meeting, HIP created a new scientific plan, with Tsang and Shen-Orr as chief science officers. The group set an ambitious goal of raising around $3 billion over the next 10 years—a goal Tsang and Metcalfe say will be met by working in conjunction with a broad network of public and private supporters. Cutbacks in federal funding for biomedical research in the US may limit funds from this traditional source, but HIP plans to work with government agencies outside the US too, with the goal of creating a comprehensive global immunological database. HIP’s plan is to first develop a pilot version based on Tsang’s test, which it will call the Immune Monitoring Kit, to test a few thousand people in Africa, Australia, East Asia, Europe, the US, and Israel. The initial effort, according to Metcalfe, is expected to begin by the end of the year.   After that, HIP would like to expand to some 150 sites around the world, eventually assessing about 250,000 people and collecting a vast cache of data and insights that Tsang believes will profoundly affect—even revolutionize—clinical medicine, public health, and drug development. My immune health metric score is … As HIP develops its pilot study to take on the world, John Tsang, for better or worse, has added one more North American Caucasian male to the small number of people who have received an IHM score to date. That would be me. It took a long time to get my score, but Tsang didn’t leave me hanging once he pinged me the red dot. “We plotted you with other participants who are clinically quite healthy,” he texted, referring to a cluster of black dots on the grid he had sent, although he cautioned that the group I’m being compared with includes only a few dozen people. “Higher IHM means better immune health,” he wrote, referring to my 0.35 score, which he described as a number on an arbitrary scale. “As you can see, your IHM is right in the middle of a bunch of people 20 years younger.” This was a relief, given that our immune system, like so many other bodily functions, declines with age—though obviously at different rates. Yet I also felt a certain disappointment. To be honest, I had expected more granular detail after having a million or so cells and markers tested—like perhaps some insights on why I got long covid (twice) and others didn’t. Tsang and other scientists are working on ways to extract more specific information from the tests. Still, he insists that the single score itself is a powerful tool to understand the general state of our immunomes, indicating the absence or presence of underlying health issues that might not be revealed in traditional testing. To be honest, I had expected more granular detail after having a million or so cells and markers tested—like perhaps some insights on why I got long covid (twice) and others didn’t. I asked Tsang what my score meant for my future. “Your score is always changing depending on what you’re exposed to and due to age,” he said, adding that the IHM is still so new that it’s hard to know exactly what the score means until researchers do more work—and until HIP can evaluate and compare thousands or hundreds of thousands of people. They also need to keep testing me over time to see how my immune system changes as it’s exposed to new perturbations and stresses. For now, I’m left with a simple number. Though it tells me little about the detailed workings of my immune system, the good news is that it raises no red flags. My immune system, it turns out, is pretty healthy. A few days after receiving my score from Tsang, I heard from Shen-Orr about more results. Tsang had shared my data with his lab so that he could run his IMM-AGE protocol on my immunome and provide me with another score to worry about. Shen-Orr’s result put the age of my immune system at around 57—still 10 years younger than my true age. The coming age of the immunome Shai Shen-Orr imagines a day when people will be able to check their advanced IHM and IMM-AGE scores—or their HIP Immune Monitoring Kit score—on an app after a blood draw, the way they now check health data such as heart rate and blood pressure. Jane Metcalfe talks about linking IHM-type measurements and analyses with rising global temperatures and steamier days and nights to study how global warming might affect the immune system of, say, a newborn or a pregnant woman. “This could be plugged into other people’s models and really help us understand the effects of pollution, nutrition, or climate change on human health,” she says. “I think [in 10 years] I’ll be able to use this much more granular understanding of what the immune system is doing at the cellular level in my patients. And hopefully we could target our therapies more directly to those cells or pathways that are contributing to disease.”Rachel Sparks Other clues could also be on the horizon. “At some point we’ll have IHM scores that can provide data on who will be most affected by a virus during a pandemic,” Tsang says. Maybe that will help researchers engineer an immune system response that shuts down the virus before it spreads. He says it’s possible to run a test like that now, but it remains experimental and will take years to fully develop, test for safety and accuracy, and establish standards and protocols for use as a tool of global public health. “These things take a long time,” he says.  The same goes for bringing IHM-style tests into the exam room, so doctors like Rachel Sparks can use the results to help treat their patients. “I think in 10 years, with some effort, we really could have something useful,” says Stanford’s Mark Davis. Sparks agrees. “I think by then I’ll be able to use this much more granular understanding of what the immune system is doing at the cellular level in my patients,” she says. “And hopefully we could target our therapies more directly to those cells or pathways that are contributing to disease.” Personally, I’ll wait for more details with a mix of impatience, curiosity, and at least a hint of concern. I wonder what more the immune circuitry deep inside me might reveal about whether I’m healthy at this very moment, or will be tomorrow, or next month, or years from now.  David Ewing Duncan is an award-winning science writer. For more information on this story check out his Futures Column on Substack.

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3 takeaways about climate tech right now

On Monday, we published our 2025 edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch. This marks the third time we’ve put the list together, and it’s become one of my favorite projects to work on every year.  In the journalism world, it’s easy to get caught up in the latest news, whether it’s a fundraising round, research paper, or startup failure. Curating this list gives our team a chance to take a step back and consider the broader picture. What industries are making progress or lagging behind? Which countries or regions are seeing quick changes? Who’s likely to succeed?  This year is an especially interesting moment in the climate tech world, something we grappled with while choosing companies. Here are three of my takeaways from the process of building this list.  1. It’s hard to overstate China’s role in energy technology right now.  To put it bluntly, China’s progress on cleantech is wild. The country is dominating in installing wind and solar power and building EVs, and it’s also pumping government money into emerging technologies like fusion energy. 
We knew we wanted this list to reflect China’s emergence as a global energy superpower, and we ended up including two Chinese firms in key industries: renewables and batteries. In 2024, China accounted for the top four wind turbine makers worldwide. Envision was in the second spot, with 19.3 gigawatts of new capacity added last year. But the company isn’t limited to wind; it’s working to help power heavy industries like steel and chemicals with technology like green hydrogen. 
Batteries are also a hot industry in China, and we’re seeing progress in tech beyond the lithium-ion cells that currently dominate EVs and energy storage on the grid. We represent that industry with HiNa Battery Technology, a leading startup building sodium-ion batteries, which could be cheaper than today’s options. The company’s batteries are already being used in electric mopeds and grid installations.  2. Energy demand from data centers and AI is on everyone’s mind, especially in the US.  Another trend we noticed this year was a fixation on the growing energy demand of data centers, including massive planned dedicated facilities that power AI models. (Here’s another nudge to check out our Power Hungry series on AI and energy, in case you haven’t explored it already.)  Even if their technology has nothing to do with data centers, companies are trying to show how they can be valuable in this age of rising energy demand. Some are signing lucrative deals with tech giants that could provide the money needed to help bring their product to market.  Kairos Power hopes to be one such energy generator, building next-generation nuclear reactors. Last year, the company signed an agreement with Google that will see the company buy up to 500 megawatts of electricity from Kairos’s first reactors through 2035.  In a more direct play, Redwood Materials is stringing together used EV batteries to build microgrids that could power—you guessed it—data centers. The company’s first installation fired up this year, and while it’s small, it’s an interesting example of a new use for old technology.  3. Materials continue to be an area that’s ripe for innovation.  In a new essay that accompanies the list, Bill Gates lays out the key role of innovation in making progress on climate technology. One thing that jumped out at me while I was reading that piece was a number: 30% of global greenhouse-gas emissions come from manufacturing, including cement and steel production.  I’ve obviously covered materials and heavy industry for years. But it still strikes me just how much innovation we still need in the most important materials we use to scaffold our world.  Several companies on this year’s list focus on materials: We’ve once again represented cement, a material that accounts for 7% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Cemvision is working to use alternative fuel sources and starting materials to clean up the dirty industry.  And Cyclic Materials is trying to reclaim and recycle rare earth magnets, a crucial technology that underpins everything from speakers to EVs and wind turbines. Today, only about 0.2% of rare earths from recycled devices are recycled, but the company is building multiple facilities in North America in hopes of changing that.  Our list of 10 Climate Tech Companies to Watch highlights businesses we think have a shot at helping the world address and adapt to climate change with the help of everything from established energy technologies to novel materials. It’s a representation of this moment, and I hope you enjoy taking a spin through it.

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EIA Lifts 2025 and 2026 Brent Forecasts for 1st Time in 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised both its 2025 and 2026 average Brent crude oil spot price forecasts in a short term energy outlook (STEO) for the first time in 2025. In its latest STEO, which was released on October 7, the EIA projected that the Brent crude spot price will average $68.64 per barrel in 2025 and $52.16 per barrel in 2026. The EIA predicted in its October STEO that the Brent spot price will come in at $62.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $51.97 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $51.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52.00 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its September STEO, $67.22 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its August STEO, $68.89 per barrel in 2025 and $58.48 per barrel in 2026 in its July STEO, $65.97 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its June STEO, $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its May STEO, $67.87 per barrel in 2025 and $61.48 per barrel in 2026 in its April STEO, $74.22 per barrel in 2025 and $68.47 per barrel in 2026 in its March STEO, $74.50 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its February STEO, and $74.31 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its January STEO. “Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $68 per barrel in September, unchanged from the average in August,” the EIA noted in its October STEO. “We forecast that growing global oil supply and

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The Download: mysteries of the immunome, and how to choose a climate tech pioneer

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. How healthy am I? My immunome knows the score.   Made up of 1.8 trillion cells and trillions more proteins, metabolites, mRNA, and other biomolecules, every person’s immunome is different, and it is constantly changing.It’s shaped by everything we have ever been exposed to physically and emotionally, and powerfully influences everything from our vulnerability to viruses and cancer to how well we age to whether we tolerate certain foods better than others.Yet as critical as the immunome is to each of us, it has remained largely beyond the reach of modern medicine. Now, thanks to a slew of new technologies, understanding this vital and mysterious system is within our grasp, paving the way for powerful new tools and tests to help us better assess, diagnose and treat diseases. Read the full story. —David Ewing Duncan
The story is a collaboration between MIT Technology Review and Aventine, a non-profit research foundation that creates and supports content about how technology and science are changing the way we live.
3 takeaways about climate tech right now On Monday, we published our 2025 edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch. Curating this list gives our team a chance to take a step back and consider the broader picture. What industries are making progress or lagging behind? Which countries or regions are seeing quick changes? Who’s likely to succeed?  This year is an especially interesting moment in the climate tech world, something we grappled with while choosing companies. Here are three of the biggest takeaways from the process of building this list. —Casey Crownhart This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here. 2025 climate tech companies to watch: Cemvision and its low-emissions cement Cement is one of the most used materials on the planet, and the industry emits billions of tons of greenhouse gasses annually. Swedish startup Cemvision wants to use waste materials and alternative fuels to help reduce climate pollution from cement production. Read the full story.

—Casey Crownhart Cemvision is one of our 10 climate tech companies to watch—our annual list of some of the most promising climate tech firms on the planet. Check out the rest of the list here. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 OpenAI wasn’t expecting its Sora copyright backlash  CEO Sam Altman says the company will reverse course and “let rightsholders decide how to proceed.” (The Verge)+ It appears to be struggling to work out which requests to approve right now. (404 Media)+ Sam Altman says video IP is a lot trickier than for images. (Insider $)+ What comes next for AI copyright lawsuits? (MIT Technology Review) 2 Apple has removed another ICE app from its storeThis one archives video evidence of abuses, rather than tracking officers’ locations. (404 Media)+ Another effort to track ICE raids was just taken offline. (MIT Technology Review)3 How private firms are helping economists work out what’s going onIn the absence of economic data from the US government, experts are getting creative. (WP $)+ How to fine-tune AI for prosperity. (MIT Technology Review) 4 China is cracking down on its rare earth exportsIt’s keen to protect its leverage over the critical minerals. (FT $)+ This rare earth metal shows us the future of our planet’s resources. (MIT Technology Review)
5 Microsoft wants to become a chatbot powerhouse in its own rightWhich means lessening its dependence on OpenAI. (WSJ $) 6 High schoolers are starting romantic relationships with AI modelsIt’s a whole new issue for schools and parents to grapple with. (NPR)+ It’s surprisingly easy to stumble into a relationship with an AI chatbot. (MIT Technology Review)
7 Those Prime Day savings are often too good to be trueBuyer beware. (WP $) 8 The future of the AI boom hinges on a small Dutch cityChipmaker ASML is planning a massive expansion—but is the surrounding area ready to support it? (Bloomberg $)+ Welcome to robot city. (MIT Technology Review) 9 Ferrari’s first electric car is on the horizonIt’s expected to go on sale next year. (Reuters)+ It sports four motors and more than 1,000 horsepower. (Ars Technica)10 Inside the enduring appeal of The SimsKeeping a house full of angry little materialists alive is still lots of fun. (NYT $) Quote of the day “The ICE raid is just the cherry on top. How is anybody going to trust us going forward?”
—Betony Jones, a senior fellow at the Roosevelt Institute think tank, tells IEEE Spectrum how an ICE raid on a Hyundai EV factory in Georgia has shaken the industry. One more thing The flawed logic of rushing out extreme climate solutionsEarly in 2022, entrepreneur Luke Iseman says, he released a pair of sulfur dioxide–filled weather balloons from Mexico’s Baja California peninsula, in the hope that they’d burst miles above Earth.It was a trivial act in itself, effectively a tiny, DIY act of solar geoengineering, the controversial proposal that the world could counteract climate change by releasing particles that reflect more sunlight back into space.
Entrepreneurs like Iseman invoke the stark dangers of climate change to explain why they do what they do—even if they don’t know how effective their interventions are. But experts say that urgency doesn’t create a social license to ignore the underlying dangers or leapfrog the scientific process. Read the full story. —James Temple We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + What language did residents of the ancient Mesoamerican city of Teotihuacan speak? We’re finally starting to find out.+ If you’re unsure whether an animal is safe to pet, this handy guide is a good starting point.+ The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s new ancient Egypt exhibition sounds brilliant.+ This story digging into the psychology experiment behind Star Wars’ special effects is completely bonkers.

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Uniper Inks 7-Year Deal for Biomethane Supply from Spain

Uniper SE has signed an agreement with Fivebioenergy SL for supply from three of Spain’s biggest biomethane projects for seven years. The Madrid-based developer will start deliveries 2027, a joint statement said, without disclosing the contract volume. “This agreement places Uniper in a strong position to complement the growing share of renewables with low-carbon energy sources and to accelerate the decarbonization of both road and maritime sectors”, the statement said. “It is a significant milestone in the ongoing commitment to delivering reliable, sustainable energy to customers across Europe. “To support the import of renewable and low-carbon gases, Uniper is expanding its portfolio accordingly. “Next to hydrogen and its derivates, biomethane plays a crucial role in achieving a sustainable energy mix”. Five Bioenergy chief information officer Ivan Copin said the agreement with the German power and gas utility “secures a stable market for our biomethane while reinforcing our vision of a decarbonized Europe powered by renewable energy”. All three plants in the agreement are to rise in Murcia, the statement said. Earlier this year Five Bioenergy contracted HoSt Energy Systems to deliver five of the biggest biogas plants in Spain. The projects in the regions of Castilla Leon, Aragon and Murcia will include biogas upgrading systems for nearly 0.8 terawatt hours of biomethane production and carbon dioxide (CO2) liquefaction plants to recover and liquefy the CO2 from the anaerobic digestion process, HoSt said in a statement April 7. Two of the projects under construction in Lorca and Milagros will process a total of up to 387,000 metric tons of agricultural residues including cow, sheep and poultry manure, alongside expired food such as slaughterhouse waste and distillery waste, HoSt said. “The feedstock is supplied by local farmers who get value for their waste as the digestate, the digested matter, from the biogas plant is converted

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BMI Flags Trends It Says Will Shape Future of Oil, Gas

A BMI “megatrends analysis” sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group this week highlighted “key trends within trade and globalization which will shape the future of the oil and gas industry until 2050”. One of these trends is that “divergent climate policies drive carbon-differentiated oil and gas trade”, the report pointed out. “Divergent decarbonization pathways and cyclical stop-start climate action will reshape global oil and gas markets,” a description of the trend in the report noted. “As governments pursue differing policy mixes, trade will fragment, forming loose blocs defined by carbon intensity and regulatory alignment. After decades of deepening integration, fungibility will give way to a more fractured energy system,” it added. Looking at the “winners” of this trend, the report flagged “low-carbon producers and exporters and those with carbon-management capabilities that can capture price premia”. It also highlighted “oilfield services and technology providers offering carbon management solutions, efficiency and electrification technologies and emissions certification and compliance services”, “trading intermediaries and financial institutions exploiting policy-driven arbitrage and structuring products around carbondifferentiated trade”, and “carbon accounting and MRV providers supplying emissions monitoring, verification and certification services”. The report flagged “high-carbon producers and exporters with limited carbon-management capabilities that face structural discounts on their O&G” as “losers” of the trend. “Oilfield services and technology providers tied to high-emissions operations with limited capacity to diversify geographically or technologically” and “capital providers and insurers exposed to carbon-intensive assets at increased risk of asset stranding” were also predicted to lose out in the report. Another trend highlighted in the report is that “energy security fears lead to a restructured oil and gas trade”. “The continuing global fragmentation into a multipolar world order would divide up existing trade blocs and necessitate a re-routing of vital energy supplies from allied states,” the report noted in a description

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How healthy am I? My immunome knows the score.  

The story is a collaboration between MIT Technology Review and Aventine, a non-profit research foundation that creates and supports content about how technology and science are changing the way we live. It’s not often you get a text about the robustness of your immune system, but that’s what popped up on my phone last spring. Sent by John Tsang, an immunologist at Yale, the text came after his lab had put my blood through a mind-boggling array of newfangled tests. The result—think of it as a full-body, high-resolution CT scan of my immune system—would reveal more about the state of my health than any test I had ever taken. And it could potentially tell me far more than I wanted to know. “David,” the text read, “you are the red dot.” Tsang was referring to an image he had attached to the text that showed a graph with a scattering of black dots representing other people whose immune systems had been evaluated—and a lone red one. There also was a score: 0.35. I had no idea what any of this meant. The red dot was the culmination of an immuno-quest I had begun on an autumn afternoon a few months earlier, when a postdoc in Tsang’s lab drew several vials of my blood. It was also a significant milestone in a decades-long journey I’ve taken as a journalist covering life sciences and medicine. Over the years, I’ve offered myself up as a human guinea pig for hundreds of tests promising new insights into my health and mortality. In 2001, I was one of the first humans to have my DNA sequenced. Soon after, in the early 2000s, researchers tapped into my proteome—proteins circulating in my blood. Then came assessments of my microbiome, metabolome, and much more. I have continued to test-drive the latest protocols and devices, amassing tens of terabytes of data on myself, and I’ve reported on the results in dozens of articles and a book called Experimental Man. Over time, the tests have gotten better and more informative, but no test I had previously taken promised to deliver results more comprehensive or closer to revealing the truth about my underlying state of health than what John Tsang was offering.
Over the years, I’ve offered myself up as a human guinea pig for hundreds of tests promising new insights into my health and mortality. But no test I had previously taken promised to deliver results more comprehensive or closer to revealing the truth about my underlying state of health. It also was not lost on me that I’m now 20-plus years older than I was when I took those first tests. Back in my 40s, I was ridiculously healthy. Since then, I’ve been battered by various pathogens, stresses, and injuries, including two bouts of covid and long covid—and, well, life. But I’d kept my apprehensions to myself as Tsang, a slim, perpetually smiling man who directs the Yale Center for Systems and Engineering Immunology, invited me into his office in New Haven to introduce me to something called the human immunome.
John Tsang has helped create a new test for your immune system. JULIE BIDWELL Made up of 1.8 trillion cells and trillions more proteins, metabolites, mRNA, and other biomolecules, every person’s immunome is different, and it is constantly changing. It’s shaped by our DNA, past illnesses, the air we have breathed, the food we have eaten, our age, and the traumas and stresses we have experienced—in short, everything we have ever been exposed to physically and emotionally. Right now, your immune system is hard at work identifying and fending off viruses and rogue cells that threaten to turn cancerous—or maybe already have. And it is doing an excellent job of it all, or not, depending on how healthy it happens to be at this particular moment. Yet as critical as the immunome is to each of us, this universe of cells and molecules has remained largely beyond the reach of modern medicine—a vast yet inaccessible operating system that powerfully influences everything from our vulnerability to viruses and cancer to how well we age to whether we tolerate certain foods better than others. Now, thanks to a slew of new technologies and to scientists like Tsang, who is on the Steering Committee of the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub New York, understanding this vital and mysterious system is within our grasp, paving the way for powerful new tools and tests to help us better assess, diagnose and treat diseases. Already, new research is revealing patterns in the ways our bodies respond to stress and disease. Scientists are creating contrasting portraits of weak and robust immunomes—portraits that someday, it’s hoped, could offer new insights into patient care and perhaps detect illnesses before symptoms appear. There are plans afoot to deploy this knowledge and technology on a global scale, which would enable scientists to observe the effects of climate, geography, and countless other factors on the immunome. The results could transform what it means to be healthy and how we identify and treat disease. It all begins with a test that can tell you whether your immune system is healthy or not. Reading the immunome Sitting in his office last fall, Tsang—a systems immunologist whose expertise combines computer science and immunology— began my tutorial in immunomics by introducing me to a study that he and his team wrote up in a 2024 paper published in Nature Medicine. It described the results of measurements made on blood samples taken from 270 subjects—tests similar to the ones Tsang’s team would be running on me. In the study, Tsang and his colleagues looked at the immune systems of 228 patients diagnosed with a variety of genetic disorders and a control group of 42 healthy people.
To help me visualize what my results might look like, Tsang opened his laptop to reveal several colorful charts from the study, punctuated by black dots representing each person evaluated. The results reminded me vaguely of abstract paintings by Joan Miró. But in place of colorful splotches, whirls, and circles were an assortment of scatter plots, Gantt charts, and heat maps tinted in greens, blues, oranges, and purples. It all looked like gibberish to me. Luckily, Tsang was willing to serve as my guide. Flashing his perpetually patient smile, he explained that these colorful jumbles depicted what his team had uncovered about each subject after taking blood samples and assessing the details of how well their immune cells, proteins, mRNA, and other immune system components were doing their job. IBRAHIM RAYINTAKATH The results placed people—represented by the individual dots—on a left-to-right continuum, ranging from those with unhealthy immunomes on the left to those with healthy immunomes on the right. Background colors, meanwhile, were used to identify people with different medical conditions affecting their immune systems. For example, olive-green indicated those with auto-immune disorders; orange backgrounds were designated for individuals with no known disease history. Tsang said he and his team would be placing me on a similar graph after they finished analyzing my blood.
Tsang’s measurements go significantly beyond what can be discerned from the handful of immune biomarkers that people routinely get tested for today. “The main immune cell panel typically ordered by a physician is called a CBC differential,” he told me. CBC, which stands for “complete blood count,” is a decades-old type of analysis that counts levels of red blood cells, hemoglobin, and basic immune cell types (neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, basophils, and eosinophils). Changes in these levels can indicate whether a person’s immune system might be reacting to a virus or other infection, cancer, or something else. Other blood tests—like one that looks for elevated levels of C-reactive protein, which can indicate inflammation associated with heart disease—are more specific than the CBC. But they still rely on blunt counting—in this case of certain proteins. Tsang’s assessment, by contrast, tests up to a million cells, proteins, mRNA and immune biomolecules—significantly more than the CBC and others. His protocol is designed to paint a more holistic portrait of a person’s immune system by not only counting cells and molecules but also by assessing their interactions. The CBC “doesn’t tell me as a physician what the cells being counted are doing,” says Rachel Sparks, a clinical immunologist who was the lead author of the Nature Medicine study and is now a translational medicine physician with the drug giant AstraZeneca. “I just know that there are more neutrophils than normal, which may or may not indicate that they’re behaving badly. We now have technology that allows us to see at a granular level what a cell is actually doing when a virus appears—how it’s changing and reacting.” Tsang’s measurements go significantly beyond what can be discerned from the handful of immune biomarkers that people routinely get tested for today. His assessment tests up to a million cells, proteins, mRNA and immune biomolecules. Such breakthroughs have been made possible thanks to a raft of new and improved technologies that have evolved over the past decade, allowing scientists like Tsang and Sparks to explore the intricacies of the immunome with newfound precision. These include devices that can count myriad different types of cells and biomolecules, as well as advanced sequencers that identify and characterize DNA, RNA, proteins, and other molecules. There are now instruments that also can measure thousands of changes and reactions that occur inside a single immune cell as it reacts to a virus or other threat. Tsang and Spark’s’ team used data generated by such measurements to identify and characterize a series of signals distinctive to unhealthy immune systems. Then they used the presence or absence of these signals to create a numerical assessment of the health of a person’s immunome—a score they call an “immune health metric,” or IHM.
Clinical immunologist Rachel Sparks hopes new tests can improve medical care. JARED SOARES To make sense of the crush of data being collected, Tsang’s team used machine-learning algorithms that correlated the results of the many measurements with a patient’s known health status and age. They also used AI to compare their findings with immune system data collected elsewhere. All this allowed them to determine and validate an IHM score for each person, and to place it on their spectrum, identifying that person as healthy or not. It all came together for the first time with the publication of the Nature Medicine paper, in which Tsang and his colleagues reported the results from testing multiple immune variables in the 270 subjects. They also announced a remarkable discovery: Patients with different kinds of diseases reacted with similar disruptions to their immunomes. For instance, many showed a lower level of the aptly named natural killer immune cells, regardless of what they were suffering from. Critically, the immune profiles of those with diagnosed diseases tended to look very different from those belonging to the outwardly healthy people in the study. And, as expected, immune health declined in the older patients. But then the results got really interesting. In a few cases, the immune systems of  unhealthy and healthy people looked similar, with some people appearing near the “healthy” area of the chart even though they were known to have diseases. Most likely this was because their symptoms were in remission and not causing an immune reaction at the moment when their blood was drawn, Tsang told me.  In other cases, people without a known disease showed up on the chart closer to those who were known to be sick. “Some of these people who appear to be in good health are overlapping with pathology that traditional metrics can’t spot,” says Tsang, whose Nature Medicine paper reported that roughly half the healthy individuals in the study had IHM scores that overlapped with those of people known to be sick. Either these seemingly healthy people had normal immune systems that were busy fending off, say, a passing virus, or  their immune systems had been impacted by aging and the vicissitudes of life. Potentially more worrisome, they were harboring an illness or stress that was not yet making them ill but might do so eventually. These findings have obvious implications for medicine. Spotting a low immune score in a seemingly healthy person could make it possible to identify and start treating an illness before symptoms appear, diseases worsen, or tumors grow and metastasize. IHM-style evaluations could also provide clues as to why some people respond differently to viruses like the one that causes covid, and why vaccines—which are designed to activate a healthy immune system—might not work as well in people whose immune systems are compromised. Spotting a low immune score in a seemingly healthy person could make it possible to identify and start treating an illness before symptoms appear, diseases worsen, or tumors grow and metastasize. “One of the more surprising things about the last pandemic was that all sorts of random younger people who seemed very healthy got sick and then they were gone,” says Mark Davis, a Stanford immunologist who helped pioneer the science being developed in labs like Tsang’s. “Some had underlying conditions like obesity and diabetes, but some did not. So the question is, could we have pointed out that something was off with these folks’ immune systems? Could we have diagnosed that and warned people to take extra precautions?”
Tsang’s IHM test is designed to answer a simple question: What is the relative health of your immune system? But there are other assessments being developed to provide more detailed information on how the body is doing. Tsang’s own team is working on a panel of additional scores aimed at getting finer detail on specific immune conditions. These include a test that measures the health of a person’s bone marrow, which makes immune cells. “If you have a bone marrow stress or inflammatory condition in the bone marrow, you could have lower capacity to produce cells, which will be reflected by this score,” he says. Another detailed metric will measure protein levels to predict how a person will respond to a virus. Tsang hopes that an IHM-style test will one day be part of a standard physical exam—a snapshot of a patient’s immune system that could inform care. For instance, has a period of intense stress compromised the immune system, making it less able to fend off this season’s flu? Will someone’s score predict a better or worse response to a vaccine or a cancer drug? How does a person’s immune system change with age?
Or, as I anxiously wondered while waiting to learn my own score, will the results reveal an underlying disorder or disease, silently ticking away until it shows itself? Toward a human immunome project   The quest to create advanced tests like the IHM for the immune system began more than 15 years ago, when scientists like Mark Davis became frustrated with a field in which research—primarily in mice—was focused mostly on individual immune cells and proteins. In 2007 he launched the Stanford Human Immune Monitoring Center, one of the first efforts to conceptualize the human immunome as a holistic, body-wide network in human beings. Speaking by Zoom from his office in Palo Alto, California, Davis told me that the effort had spawned other projects, including a landmark twin study showing that a lot of immune variation is not genetic, which was then the prevailing theory, but is heavily influenced by environmental factors—a major shift in scientists’ understanding. Shai Shen-Orr sees a day when people will check their immune scores on an app. COURTESY OF SHAI SHEN-ORR Davis and others also laid the groundwork for tests like John Tsang’s by discovering how a T cell—among the most common and important immune players—can recognize pathogens, cancerous cells, and other threats, triggering defensive measures that can include destroying the threat. This and other discoveries have revealed many of the basic mechanics of how immune cells work, says Davis, “but there’s still a lot we have to learn.” One researcher working with Davis in those early days was Shai Shen-Orr, who is now director of the Zimin Institute for AI Solutions in Healthcare at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, based in Haifa, Israel. (He’s also a frequent collaborator with Tsang.) Shen-Orr, like Tsang, is a systems immunologist. He recalls that in 2007, when he was a postdoc in Davis’s lab, immunologists had identified around 100 cell types and a similar number of cytokines—proteins that act as messengers in the immune system. But they weren’t able to measure them simultaneously, which limited visibility into how the immune system works as a whole. Today, Shen-Orr says, immunologists can measure hundreds of cell types and thousands of proteins and watch them interact. Shen-Orr’s current lab has developed its own version of an immunome test that he calls IMM-AGE (short for “immune age”), the basics of which were published in a 2019 paper in Nature Medicine. IMM-AGE looks at the composition of people’s immune systems—how many of each type of immune cell they have and how these numbers change as they age. His team has used this information primarily to ascertain a person’s risk of heart disease. Shen-Orr also has been a vociferous advocate for expanding the pool of test samples, which now come mostly from Americans and Europeans. “We need to understand why different people in different environments react differently and how that works,” he says. “We also need to test a lot more people—maybe millions.” Tsang has seen why a limited sample size can pose problems. In 2013, he says, researchers at the National Institutes of Health came up with a malaria vaccine that was effective for almost everyone who got it during clinical trials conducted in Maryland. “But in Africa,” he says, “it only worked for about 25% of the people.” He attributes this to the significant differences in genetics, diet, climate, and other environmental factors that cause people’s immunomes to develop differently. “Why?” he asks. “What exactly was different about the immune systems in Maryland and Tanzania? That’s what we need to understand so we can design personalized vaccines and treatments.” “What exactly was different about the immune systems in Maryland and Tanzania? That’s what we need to understand so we can design personalized vaccines and treatments.”John Tsang For several years, Tsang and Shen-Orr have advocated going global with testing, “but there has been resistance,” Shen-Orr says. “Look, medicine is conservative and moves slowly, and the technology is expensive and labor intensive.” They finally got the audience they needed at a 2022 conference in La Jolla, California, convened by the Human Immunome Project, or HIP. (The organization was originally founded in 2016 to create more effective vaccines but had recently changed its name to emphasize a pivot from just vaccines to the wider field of immunome science.) It was in La Jolla that they met HIP’s then-new chairperson, Jane Metcalfe, a cofounder of Wired magazine, who saw what was at stake.
“We’ve got all of these advanced molecular immunological profiles being developed,” she said, “but we can’t begin to predict the breadth of immune system variability if we’re  only testing small numbers of people in Palo Alto or Tel Aviv. And that’s when the big aha moment struck us that we need sites everywhere to collect that information so we can build proper computer models and a predictive understanding of the human immune system.” IBRAHIM RAYINTAKATH Following that meeting, HIP created a new scientific plan, with Tsang and Shen-Orr as chief science officers. The group set an ambitious goal of raising around $3 billion over the next 10 years—a goal Tsang and Metcalfe say will be met by working in conjunction with a broad network of public and private supporters. Cutbacks in federal funding for biomedical research in the US may limit funds from this traditional source, but HIP plans to work with government agencies outside the US too, with the goal of creating a comprehensive global immunological database. HIP’s plan is to first develop a pilot version based on Tsang’s test, which it will call the Immune Monitoring Kit, to test a few thousand people in Africa, Australia, East Asia, Europe, the US, and Israel. The initial effort, according to Metcalfe, is expected to begin by the end of the year.   After that, HIP would like to expand to some 150 sites around the world, eventually assessing about 250,000 people and collecting a vast cache of data and insights that Tsang believes will profoundly affect—even revolutionize—clinical medicine, public health, and drug development. My immune health metric score is … As HIP develops its pilot study to take on the world, John Tsang, for better or worse, has added one more North American Caucasian male to the small number of people who have received an IHM score to date. That would be me. It took a long time to get my score, but Tsang didn’t leave me hanging once he pinged me the red dot. “We plotted you with other participants who are clinically quite healthy,” he texted, referring to a cluster of black dots on the grid he had sent, although he cautioned that the group I’m being compared with includes only a few dozen people. “Higher IHM means better immune health,” he wrote, referring to my 0.35 score, which he described as a number on an arbitrary scale. “As you can see, your IHM is right in the middle of a bunch of people 20 years younger.” This was a relief, given that our immune system, like so many other bodily functions, declines with age—though obviously at different rates. Yet I also felt a certain disappointment. To be honest, I had expected more granular detail after having a million or so cells and markers tested—like perhaps some insights on why I got long covid (twice) and others didn’t. Tsang and other scientists are working on ways to extract more specific information from the tests. Still, he insists that the single score itself is a powerful tool to understand the general state of our immunomes, indicating the absence or presence of underlying health issues that might not be revealed in traditional testing. To be honest, I had expected more granular detail after having a million or so cells and markers tested—like perhaps some insights on why I got long covid (twice) and others didn’t. I asked Tsang what my score meant for my future. “Your score is always changing depending on what you’re exposed to and due to age,” he said, adding that the IHM is still so new that it’s hard to know exactly what the score means until researchers do more work—and until HIP can evaluate and compare thousands or hundreds of thousands of people. They also need to keep testing me over time to see how my immune system changes as it’s exposed to new perturbations and stresses. For now, I’m left with a simple number. Though it tells me little about the detailed workings of my immune system, the good news is that it raises no red flags. My immune system, it turns out, is pretty healthy. A few days after receiving my score from Tsang, I heard from Shen-Orr about more results. Tsang had shared my data with his lab so that he could run his IMM-AGE protocol on my immunome and provide me with another score to worry about. Shen-Orr’s result put the age of my immune system at around 57—still 10 years younger than my true age. The coming age of the immunome Shai Shen-Orr imagines a day when people will be able to check their advanced IHM and IMM-AGE scores—or their HIP Immune Monitoring Kit score—on an app after a blood draw, the way they now check health data such as heart rate and blood pressure. Jane Metcalfe talks about linking IHM-type measurements and analyses with rising global temperatures and steamier days and nights to study how global warming might affect the immune system of, say, a newborn or a pregnant woman. “This could be plugged into other people’s models and really help us understand the effects of pollution, nutrition, or climate change on human health,” she says. “I think [in 10 years] I’ll be able to use this much more granular understanding of what the immune system is doing at the cellular level in my patients. And hopefully we could target our therapies more directly to those cells or pathways that are contributing to disease.”Rachel Sparks Other clues could also be on the horizon. “At some point we’ll have IHM scores that can provide data on who will be most affected by a virus during a pandemic,” Tsang says. Maybe that will help researchers engineer an immune system response that shuts down the virus before it spreads. He says it’s possible to run a test like that now, but it remains experimental and will take years to fully develop, test for safety and accuracy, and establish standards and protocols for use as a tool of global public health. “These things take a long time,” he says.  The same goes for bringing IHM-style tests into the exam room, so doctors like Rachel Sparks can use the results to help treat their patients. “I think in 10 years, with some effort, we really could have something useful,” says Stanford’s Mark Davis. Sparks agrees. “I think by then I’ll be able to use this much more granular understanding of what the immune system is doing at the cellular level in my patients,” she says. “And hopefully we could target our therapies more directly to those cells or pathways that are contributing to disease.” Personally, I’ll wait for more details with a mix of impatience, curiosity, and at least a hint of concern. I wonder what more the immune circuitry deep inside me might reveal about whether I’m healthy at this very moment, or will be tomorrow, or next month, or years from now.  David Ewing Duncan is an award-winning science writer. For more information on this story check out his Futures Column on Substack.

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3 takeaways about climate tech right now

On Monday, we published our 2025 edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch. This marks the third time we’ve put the list together, and it’s become one of my favorite projects to work on every year.  In the journalism world, it’s easy to get caught up in the latest news, whether it’s a fundraising round, research paper, or startup failure. Curating this list gives our team a chance to take a step back and consider the broader picture. What industries are making progress or lagging behind? Which countries or regions are seeing quick changes? Who’s likely to succeed?  This year is an especially interesting moment in the climate tech world, something we grappled with while choosing companies. Here are three of my takeaways from the process of building this list.  1. It’s hard to overstate China’s role in energy technology right now.  To put it bluntly, China’s progress on cleantech is wild. The country is dominating in installing wind and solar power and building EVs, and it’s also pumping government money into emerging technologies like fusion energy. 
We knew we wanted this list to reflect China’s emergence as a global energy superpower, and we ended up including two Chinese firms in key industries: renewables and batteries. In 2024, China accounted for the top four wind turbine makers worldwide. Envision was in the second spot, with 19.3 gigawatts of new capacity added last year. But the company isn’t limited to wind; it’s working to help power heavy industries like steel and chemicals with technology like green hydrogen. 
Batteries are also a hot industry in China, and we’re seeing progress in tech beyond the lithium-ion cells that currently dominate EVs and energy storage on the grid. We represent that industry with HiNa Battery Technology, a leading startup building sodium-ion batteries, which could be cheaper than today’s options. The company’s batteries are already being used in electric mopeds and grid installations.  2. Energy demand from data centers and AI is on everyone’s mind, especially in the US.  Another trend we noticed this year was a fixation on the growing energy demand of data centers, including massive planned dedicated facilities that power AI models. (Here’s another nudge to check out our Power Hungry series on AI and energy, in case you haven’t explored it already.)  Even if their technology has nothing to do with data centers, companies are trying to show how they can be valuable in this age of rising energy demand. Some are signing lucrative deals with tech giants that could provide the money needed to help bring their product to market.  Kairos Power hopes to be one such energy generator, building next-generation nuclear reactors. Last year, the company signed an agreement with Google that will see the company buy up to 500 megawatts of electricity from Kairos’s first reactors through 2035.  In a more direct play, Redwood Materials is stringing together used EV batteries to build microgrids that could power—you guessed it—data centers. The company’s first installation fired up this year, and while it’s small, it’s an interesting example of a new use for old technology.  3. Materials continue to be an area that’s ripe for innovation.  In a new essay that accompanies the list, Bill Gates lays out the key role of innovation in making progress on climate technology. One thing that jumped out at me while I was reading that piece was a number: 30% of global greenhouse-gas emissions come from manufacturing, including cement and steel production.  I’ve obviously covered materials and heavy industry for years. But it still strikes me just how much innovation we still need in the most important materials we use to scaffold our world.  Several companies on this year’s list focus on materials: We’ve once again represented cement, a material that accounts for 7% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Cemvision is working to use alternative fuel sources and starting materials to clean up the dirty industry.  And Cyclic Materials is trying to reclaim and recycle rare earth magnets, a crucial technology that underpins everything from speakers to EVs and wind turbines. Today, only about 0.2% of rare earths from recycled devices are recycled, but the company is building multiple facilities in North America in hopes of changing that.  Our list of 10 Climate Tech Companies to Watch highlights businesses we think have a shot at helping the world address and adapt to climate change with the help of everything from established energy technologies to novel materials. It’s a representation of this moment, and I hope you enjoy taking a spin through it.

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EIA Lifts 2025 and 2026 Brent Forecasts for 1st Time in 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised both its 2025 and 2026 average Brent crude oil spot price forecasts in a short term energy outlook (STEO) for the first time in 2025. In its latest STEO, which was released on October 7, the EIA projected that the Brent crude spot price will average $68.64 per barrel in 2025 and $52.16 per barrel in 2026. The EIA predicted in its October STEO that the Brent spot price will come in at $62.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $51.97 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $51.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52.00 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its September STEO, $67.22 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its August STEO, $68.89 per barrel in 2025 and $58.48 per barrel in 2026 in its July STEO, $65.97 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its June STEO, $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its May STEO, $67.87 per barrel in 2025 and $61.48 per barrel in 2026 in its April STEO, $74.22 per barrel in 2025 and $68.47 per barrel in 2026 in its March STEO, $74.50 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its February STEO, and $74.31 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its January STEO. “Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $68 per barrel in September, unchanged from the average in August,” the EIA noted in its October STEO. “We forecast that growing global oil supply and

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ExxonMobil Agrees Terms to Explore Giant Iraqi Field

Exxon Mobil Corp. signed agreements that lay the groundwork for it to explore Iraq’s giant Majnoon oil field, ending the company’s near two-year hiatus in the country.  The Texas oil major has signed heads of agreements with Basra Oil Co. and SOMO, Iraq’s oil marketing company, the nation’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani said Wednesday. Goal include developing the Majoon oil field and boosting Iraq’s export infrastructure, his office said. The agreement includes a joint cooperation with SOMO to explore marketing opportunities, it said. On Tuesday, Exxon said in a statement it was in advanced discussions with the country’s oil ministry “as we routinely look at opportunities to optimize our advantaged portfolio.”  Exxon was among the first Western oil explorers allowed into Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC, in 2010 as the nation sought to rebuild its energy industry in the aftermath of the country’s invasion, fall of President Saddam Hussein and the years of conflict that followed. But the company decided to exit its primary investment – a stake in the West Qurna-1 oil field in southern Iraq – in early 2024 amid tough contractual terms, OPEC supply constraints and ongoing political instability.  Majnoon, also in the south of Iraq, is one of the country’s biggest fields and has long attracted the interest of the world’s largest oil companies. But profit sharing with the government has often been a source of conflict, one that led Shell Plc to quit the field in 2017. Exxon will need to complete a series of commercial and technical studies and agree to an operating contract before oil production could begin, a process that could take years.  Water supplies have also been a concern historically, as many of Iraq’s wells rely on injection of fluids to sustain reservoir pressure.  WHAT DO YOU THINK? Generated by readers,

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Philippines Awards 8 Oil, Hydrogen Exploration Licenses

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Wednesday signed eight licenses for oil and natural gas and hydrogen exploration across the Philippines, as the Southeast Asian country braces for depletion at its only producing gas field. “This landmark unveiling marks the largest batch of PSCs [Petroleum Service Contracts] awarded in a single period in Philippine history, reaffirming the administration’s strong resolve to accelerate domestic energy exploration and production”, the country’s Department of Energy (DOE) said in a statement on its website. “The new contracts also include the world’s first competitive bid round for native hydrogen, alongside co-managed petroleum projects with the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao”. PSCs 80 and 81 allow Australia’s Triangle Energy (Global) Ltd, the United Kingdom’s Sunda Energy PLC and the Philippines’ PXP Energy Corp and The Philodrill Corp “to revitalize petroleum exploration in the southern Sulu Sea”, the DOE said. PSC 80 covers about 780,000 hectares while PSC 81 spans around 532,000 hectares. Triangle Energy also bagged another license for the Cagayan basin. PSC 82 has 480,000 hectares. United States-based Koloma Inc won SCs 83 and 84 for native hydrogen exploration in Central Luzon. SCs 83 and 84 cover more than 126,600 hectares and over 85,000 hectares respectively. PSC 85 went to Singapore’s Gas 2 Grid Pte Ltd for nearly 127,500 hectares onshore Cebu province. PSC 86 in the Northwest Palawan Basin went to a Philippine consortium: Philodrill, Anglo Philippine Holdings Corp, PXP Energy Corp and Forum Energy Philippines Corp. The license covers 132,000 hectares. Israel’s Ratio Petroleum Ltd won its second Philippine PSC. SC 87, like its earlier PSC 78, targets the East Palawan Basin. Under the previous license, the company “successfully conducted a 3D seismic survey last year as part of its ongoing exploration activities”, the DOE said. “Service contractors may now commence their respective work

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ADNOC Targets $43B Dividends over 6 Years from Subsidiaries

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co PJSC’s (ADNOC) six publicly traded companies have announced dividend plans for 2025-30 that would nearly double their dividend payments since ADNOC’s first initial public offering (IPO) for a subsidiary in 2017. “Our target to distribute AED158 billion ($43 billion) in dividends is a landmark step that gives investors and shareholders clear visibility of dividend distributions through 2030. In doing so, we are reaffirming our confidence and steadfast commitment to delivering long-term value, reducing costs, enhancing efficiency and accelerating growth”, ADNOC managing director and chief executive Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said Wednesday in a statement on the company’s website. ADNOC Distribution’s board is proposing to extend its current dividend policy to last through 2030 instead of 2028, the subsidiary said in a filing with the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) on Wednesday. The policy amounts to AED 2.57 billion ($700 million) a year, or 20.57 fils per share, and pledges a minimum dividend amounting to 75 percent of net profit. The board is also proposing quarterly payouts instead of the current semiannual setup. The regulatory disclosure added that ADNOC Distribution, the biggest fuel retailer in the United Arab Emirates with a 64 percent market share according to ADNOC, will increase its stations by 15 percent to 1,150 by 2028. Meanwhile ADNOC Drilling Co PJSC is proposing to raise its 2025 dividend floor by 27 percent year-on-year to $1 billion or around 23 fils per share, ADNOC Drilling said in an ADX filing on Wednesday. For 2025-30 ADNOC Drilling is proposing a total of at least $6.8 billion or AED 1.6 per share of committed dividend floor, compared to $4 billion or AED 0.9 per share for 2025-28 under the current policy. The new plan carries a minimum five percent annual dividend increase. On strategic growth, ADNOC

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India Refiners May Buy More Russian Oil

Indian refiners are expected to boost oil imports from Russia in the coming months, as trade talks with Washington drag on and discounts widen amid ample supplies. Discounts on Urals crude loading in November are $2-to-$2.50 a barrel to Dated Brent, making it attractive, according to people familiar with the developments. That’s cheaper than discounts of about $1 a barrel in July-to-August, when supplies were tight due to Moscow’s prioritizing local customers. For the current month, ship-tracking data point to an uptick in arrivals. Crude imports from Russia could average about 1.7 million barrels a day in October, according to Kpler Ltd. That would be about 6% higher on-month, but slightly lower than last year’s pace. The US imposed a punitive 50% levy on US imports of Indian goods in August in a bid to pressure New Delhi to curb its appetite for Russian oil, although it’s refrained from similar action against China, another major buyer. In response, India made plain the deals are price-driven and would continue, although it’s also signaled it wants to buy more US energy amid talks with Washington. Still, at this stage it remains unclear whether Indian refiners will continue to maximize purchases of discounted Russian crude given the talks with the US, said the people. Last month, officials from New Delhi described meetings as “constructive”, even with Washington’s demand India stop buying Russian oil. Meanwhile, India’s state processors have begun talks with national oil companies in the Middle East and Africa for term deals for 2026, the people said. Refiners would be seeking for greater volumes from suppliers able to provide flexibility around volumes, such as allowing buyers to resell or optimize cargoes should Russian imports become more viable, they added. Spokespeople for Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. didn’t reply

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Oil Rises on U.S. Stockpile Drop

Oil rose to the highest in a week after a government report showed a decline in domestic product stockpiles, while strength in broader markets supported crude prices. West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.3% to trade above $62 a barrel, aided by gains in US equities. The Energy Information Administration reported a 763,000-barrel weekly drop at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma, as well as lower oil-product holdings across the board. US distillate stocks, in particular, saw the largest decline since late June. Price gains are still capped by the outlook for ample global supplies, with OPEC+ ramping up production and the US forecasting record domestic output this year. Russian exports are also close to a 16-month high as Ukrainian drone strikes against refineries cut domestic processing. “The disconnect continues between paper pricing and the predicted glut in global balances,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics. “We are back to an oil trading world where flat price is firmly in the $65 to $70 world.” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reaffirmed its bearish outlook on oil, saying the global market faces an average daily surplus of about 2 million barrels from this quarter through next year. That will drag prices lower, with Brent expected to average $56 a barrel in 2026, analysts including Yulia Grigsby said in a note. In corporate news, Exxon Mobil Corp. signed agreements that lay the groundwork for it to explore Iraq’s giant Majnoon oil field, ending the company’s near two-year hiatus in the country. Oil Prices West Texas Intermediate for November delivery advanced 1.3% to settle at $62.55 a barrel in New York. Brent for December settlement climbed 1.2% to settle at $66.25 a barrel. What do you think? We’d love to hear from you, join the conversation on the Rigzone Energy Network. The Rigzone Energy Network is

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Cenovus Sweetens Offer for MEG

Canada’s Cenovus Energy Inc. increased its takeover bid for rival MEG Energy Corp. one day before investors were due to vote on it, signaling the companies’ original deal didn’t have enough shareholder support.  The new cash-and-stock offer from Cenovus values MEG at C$29.80 per share, or C$7.6 billion ($5.4 billion), based on Tuesday’s closing price. That’s a bump of about 5% from the previous offer, which the MEG board agreed to in August. Including debt, the offer values MEG at about C$8.6 billion. MEG shares were up 5.5% Wednesday at noon in Toronto and Cenovus shares were up 1%. Cenovus is also offering more stock this time: the new proposed transaction is half shares, half cash. The previous bid would have paid shareholders three-quarters cash, and was criticized by some investors for limiting the potential upside for MEG investors.  “While the market will likely express some disappointment from the raised bid, we think the improved offer should support approval from MEG holders and we do believe in the strategic merits of the transaction,” JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram said in a note to investors.  MEG’s largest shareholder is Strathcona Resources Ltd., which owns 14% of the company and has put forward its own competing all-stock takeover proposal, which MEG’s board turned down. Strathcona didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The MEG shareholder vote has been delayed until Oct. 22. Cenovus needs two-thirds support for the takeover to succeed.  “We received support from the majority of MEG’s shareholders for our transaction, Cenovus Chief Executive Officer Jon McKenzie said in a statement. “However, many MEG shareholders indicated that they would prefer to receive greater Cenovus share consideration, so that they can more fully participate in the upside of the combined company.”  A takeover of MEG, which operates a single oil-sands site

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West of Orkney developers helped support 24 charities last year

The developers of the 2GW West of Orkney wind farm paid out a total of £18,000 to 24 organisations from its small donations fund in 2024. The money went to projects across Caithness, Sutherland and Orkney, including a mental health initiative in Thurso and a scheme by Dunnet Community Forest to improve the quality of meadows through the use of traditional scythes. Established in 2022, the fund offers up to £1,000 per project towards programmes in the far north. In addition to the small donations fund, the West of Orkney developers intend to follow other wind farms by establishing a community benefit fund once the project is operational. West of Orkney wind farm project director Stuart McAuley said: “Our donations programme is just one small way in which we can support some of the many valuable initiatives in Caithness, Sutherland and Orkney. “In every case we have been immensely impressed by the passion and professionalism each organisation brings, whether their focus is on sport, the arts, social care, education or the environment, and we hope the funds we provide help them achieve their goals.” In addition to the local donations scheme, the wind farm developers have helped fund a £1 million research and development programme led by EMEC in Orkney and a £1.2m education initiative led by UHI. It also provided £50,000 to support the FutureSkills apprenticeship programme in Caithness, with funds going to employment and training costs to help tackle skill shortages in the North of Scotland. The West of Orkney wind farm is being developed by Corio Generation, TotalEnergies and Renewable Infrastructure Development Group (RIDG). The project is among the leaders of the ScotWind cohort, having been the first to submit its offshore consent documents in late 2023. In addition, the project’s onshore plans were approved by the

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Biden bans US offshore oil and gas drilling ahead of Trump’s return

US President Joe Biden has announced a ban on offshore oil and gas drilling across vast swathes of the country’s coastal waters. The decision comes just weeks before his successor Donald Trump, who has vowed to increase US fossil fuel production, takes office. The drilling ban will affect 625 million acres of federal waters across America’s eastern and western coasts, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Alaska’s Northern Bering Sea. The decision does not affect the western Gulf of Mexico, where much of American offshore oil and gas production occurs and is set to continue. In a statement, President Biden said he is taking action to protect the regions “from oil and natural gas drilling and the harm it can cause”. “My decision reflects what coastal communities, businesses, and beachgoers have known for a long time: that drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage to places we hold dear and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs,” Biden said. “It is not worth the risks. “As the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren.” Offshore drilling ban The White House said Biden used his authority under the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which allows presidents to withdraw areas from mineral leasing and drilling. However, the law does not give a president the right to unilaterally reverse a drilling ban without congressional approval. This means that Trump, who pledged to “unleash” US fossil fuel production during his re-election campaign, could find it difficult to overturn the ban after taking office. Sunset shot of the Shell Olympus platform in the foreground and the Shell Mars platform in the background in the Gulf of Mexico Trump

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The Download: our 10 Breakthrough Technologies for 2025

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Introducing: MIT Technology Review’s 10 Breakthrough Technologies for 2025 Each year, we spend months researching and discussing which technologies will make the cut for our 10 Breakthrough Technologies list. We try to highlight a mix of items that reflect innovations happening in various fields. We look at consumer technologies, large industrial­-scale projects, biomedical advances, changes in computing, climate solutions, the latest in AI, and more.We’ve been publishing this list every year since 2001 and, frankly, have a great track record of flagging things that are poised to hit a tipping point. It’s hard to think of another industry that has as much of a hype machine behind it as tech does, so the real secret of the TR10 is really what we choose to leave off the list.Check out the full list of our 10 Breakthrough Technologies for 2025, which is front and center in our latest print issue. It’s all about the exciting innovations happening in the world right now, and includes some fascinating stories, such as: + How digital twins of human organs are set to transform medical treatment and shake up how we trial new drugs.+ What will it take for us to fully trust robots? The answer is a complicated one.+ Wind is an underutilized resource that has the potential to steer the notoriously dirty shipping industry toward a greener future. Read the full story.+ After decades of frustration, machine-learning tools are helping ecologists to unlock a treasure trove of acoustic bird data—and to shed much-needed light on their migration habits. Read the full story. 
+ How poop could help feed the planet—yes, really. Read the full story.
Roundtables: Unveiling the 10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2025 Last week, Amy Nordrum, our executive editor, joined our news editor Charlotte Jee to unveil our 10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2025 in an exclusive Roundtable discussion. Subscribers can watch their conversation back here. And, if you’re interested in previous discussions about topics ranging from mixed reality tech to gene editing to AI’s climate impact, check out some of the highlights from the past year’s events. This international surveillance project aims to protect wheat from deadly diseases For as long as there’s been domesticated wheat (about 8,000 years), there has been harvest-devastating rust. Breeding efforts in the mid-20th century led to rust-resistant wheat strains that boosted crop yields, and rust epidemics receded in much of the world.But now, after decades, rusts are considered a reemerging disease in Europe, at least partly due to climate change.  An international initiative hopes to turn the tide by scaling up a system to track wheat diseases and forecast potential outbreaks to governments and farmers in close to real time. And by doing so, they hope to protect a crop that supplies about one-fifth of the world’s calories. Read the full story. —Shaoni Bhattacharya

The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 Meta has taken down its creepy AI profiles Following a big backlash from unhappy users. (NBC News)+ Many of the profiles were likely to have been live from as far back as 2023. (404 Media)+ It also appears they were never very popular in the first place. (The Verge) 2 Uber and Lyft are racing to catch up with their robotaxi rivalsAfter abandoning their own self-driving projects years ago. (WSJ $)+ China’s Pony.ai is gearing up to expand to Hong Kong.  (Reuters)3 Elon Musk is going after NASA He’s largely veered away from criticising the space agency publicly—until now. (Wired $)+ SpaceX’s Starship rocket has a legion of scientist fans. (The Guardian)+ What’s next for NASA’s giant moon rocket? (MIT Technology Review) 4 How Sam Altman actually runs OpenAIFeaturing three-hour meetings and a whole lot of Slack messages. (Bloomberg $)+ ChatGPT Pro is a pricey loss-maker, apparently. (MIT Technology Review) 5 The dangerous allure of TikTokMigrants’ online portrayal of their experiences in America aren’t always reflective of their realities. (New Yorker $) 6 Demand for electricity is skyrocketingAnd AI is only a part of it. (Economist $)+ AI’s search for more energy is growing more urgent. (MIT Technology Review) 7 The messy ethics of writing religious sermons using AISkeptics aren’t convinced the technology should be used to channel spirituality. (NYT $)
8 How a wildlife app became an invaluable wildfire trackerWatch Duty has become a safeguarding sensation across the US west. (The Guardian)+ How AI can help spot wildfires. (MIT Technology Review) 9 Computer scientists just love oracles 🔮 Hypothetical devices are a surprisingly important part of computing. (Quanta Magazine)
10 Pet tech is booming 🐾But not all gadgets are made equal. (FT $)+ These scientists are working to extend the lifespan of pet dogs—and their owners. (MIT Technology Review) Quote of the day “The next kind of wave of this is like, well, what is AI doing for me right now other than telling me that I have AI?” —Anshel Sag, principal analyst at Moor Insights and Strategy, tells Wired a lot of companies’ AI claims are overblown.
The big story Broadband funding for Native communities could finally connect some of America’s most isolated places September 2022 Rural and Native communities in the US have long had lower rates of cellular and broadband connectivity than urban areas, where four out of every five Americans live. Outside the cities and suburbs, which occupy barely 3% of US land, reliable internet service can still be hard to come by.
The covid-19 pandemic underscored the problem as Native communities locked down and moved school and other essential daily activities online. But it also kicked off an unprecedented surge of relief funding to solve it. Read the full story. —Robert Chaney We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + Rollerskating Spice Girls is exactly what your Monday morning needs.+ It’s not just you, some people really do look like their dogs!+ I’m not sure if this is actually the world’s healthiest meal, but it sure looks tasty.+ Ah, the old “bitten by a rabid fox chestnut.”

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Equinor Secures $3 Billion Financing for US Offshore Wind Project

Equinor ASA has announced a final investment decision on Empire Wind 1 and financial close for $3 billion in debt financing for the under-construction project offshore Long Island, expected to power 500,000 New York homes. The Norwegian majority state-owned energy major said in a statement it intends to farm down ownership “to further enhance value and reduce exposure”. Equinor has taken full ownership of Empire Wind 1 and 2 since last year, in a swap transaction with 50 percent co-venturer BP PLC that allowed the former to exit the Beacon Wind lease, also a 50-50 venture between the two. Equinor has yet to complete a portion of the transaction under which it would also acquire BP’s 50 percent share in the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal lease, according to the latest transaction update on Equinor’s website. The lease involves a terminal conversion project that was intended to serve as an interconnection station for Beacon Wind and Empire Wind, as agreed on by the two companies and the state of New York in 2022.  “The expected total capital investments, including fees for the use of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, are approximately $5 billion including the effect of expected future tax credits (ITCs)”, said the statement on Equinor’s website announcing financial close. Equinor did not disclose its backers, only saying, “The final group of lenders includes some of the most experienced lenders in the sector along with many of Equinor’s relationship banks”. “Empire Wind 1 will be the first offshore wind project to connect into the New York City grid”, the statement added. “The redevelopment of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal and construction of Empire Wind 1 will create more than 1,000 union jobs in the construction phase”, Equinor said. On February 22, 2024, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced

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USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop Week on Week

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 1.2 million barrels from the week ending December 20 to the week ending December 27, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on January 2. Crude oil stocks, excluding the SPR, stood at 415.6 million barrels on December 27, 416.8 million barrels on December 20, and 431.1 million barrels on December 29, 2023, the report revealed. Crude oil in the SPR came in at 393.6 million barrels on December 27, 393.3 million barrels on December 20, and 354.4 million barrels on December 29, 2023, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.623 billion barrels on December 27, the report revealed. This figure was up 9.6 million barrels week on week and up 17.8 million barrels year on year, the report outlined. “At 415.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about five percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest report. “Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased last week while blending components inventories increased last week,” it added. “Distillate fuel inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels last week and are about six percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels from last week and are 10 percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it went on to state. In the report, the EIA noted

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More telecom firms were breached by Chinese hackers than previously reported

Broader implications for US infrastructure The Salt Typhoon revelations follow a broader pattern of state-sponsored cyber operations targeting the US technology ecosystem. The telecom sector, serving as a backbone for industries including finance, energy, and transportation, remains particularly vulnerable to such attacks. While Chinese officials have dismissed the accusations as disinformation, the recurring breaches underscore the pressing need for international collaboration and policy enforcement to deter future attacks. The Salt Typhoon campaign has uncovered alarming gaps in the cybersecurity of US telecommunications firms, with breaches now extending to over a dozen networks. Federal agencies and private firms must act swiftly to mitigate risks as adversaries continue to evolve their attack strategies. Strengthening oversight, fostering industry-wide collaboration, and investing in advanced defense mechanisms are essential steps toward safeguarding national security and public trust.

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Coming soon: Our 2025 list of Climate Tech Companies to Watch

The need to cut emissions and adapt to our warming world is growing more urgent. This year, we’ve seen temperatures reach record highs, as they have nearly every year for the last decade. Climate-fueled natural disasters are affecting communities around the world, costing billions of dollars.  That’s why, for the past two years, MIT Technology Review has curated a list of companies with the potential to make a meaningful difference in addressing climate change (you can revisit the 2024 list here). We’re excited to share that we’ll publish our third edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch on October 6.  The list features businesses from around the world that are building technologies to reduce emissions or address the impacts of climate change. They represent advances across a wide range of industries, from agriculture and transportation to energy and critical minerals.  One notable difference about this year’s list is that we’ve focused on fewer firms—we’ll highlight 10 instead of the 15 we’ve recognized in previous years. 
This change reflects the times: Climate science and technology are in a dramatically different place from where they were just one year ago. The US, the world’s largest economy and historically its biggest polluter, has made a U-turn on climate policy as the Trump administration cancels hundreds of billions of dollars in grants, tax credits, and loans designed to support the industry and climate research.   And the stark truth is that time is of the essence. This year marks 10 years since the Paris Agreement, the UN treaty that aimed to limit global warming by setting a goal of cutting emissions so that temperatures would rise no more than 1.5 °C above preindustrial temperatures. Today, experts agree that we’ve virtually run out of time to reach that goal and will need to act fast to limit warming to less than 2 °C.
The companies on this year’s list are inventing and scaling technologies that could help. There’s a wide array of firms represented, from early-stage startups to multibillion-dollar businesses. Their technologies run the gamut from electric vehicles to the materials that scaffold our world.  Of course, we can’t claim to be able to predict the future: Not all the businesses we’ve recognized will succeed. But we’ve done our best to choose companies with a solid technical footing, as well as feasible plans for bringing their solutions to the right market and scaling them effectively.  We’re excited to share the list with you in just a few days. These companies are helping address one of the most crucial challenges of our time. Who knows—maybe you’ll even come away feeling a little more hopeful.

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Using AI to perceive the universe in greater depth

Science

Published
4 September 2025

Authors
Brendan Tracey, Jonas Buchli

Our novel Deep Loop Shaping method improves control of gravitational wave observatories, helping astronomers better understand the dynamics and formation of the universe.To help astronomers study the universe’s most powerful processes, our teams have been using AI to stabilize one of the most sensitive observation instruments ever built.In a paper published today in Science, we introduce Deep Loop Shaping, a novel AI method that will unlock next-generation gravitational-wave science. Deep Loop Shaping reduces noise and improves control in an observatory’s feedback system, helping stabilize components used for measuring gravitational waves — the tiny ripples in the fabric of space and time.These waves are generated by events like neutron star collisions and black hole mergers. Our method will help astronomers gather data critical to understanding the dynamics and formation of the universe, and better test fundamental theories of physics and cosmology.We developed Deep Loop Shaping in collaboration with LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory) operated by Caltech, and GSSI (Gran Sasso Science Institute), and proved our method at the observatory in Livingston, Louisiana.LIGO measures the properties and origins of gravitational waves with incredible accuracy. But the slightest vibration can disrupt its measurements, even from waves crashing 100 miles away on the Gulf coast. To function, LIGO relies on thousands of control systems keeping every part in near-perfect alignment, and adapts to environmental disturbances with continuous feedback.Deep Loop Shaping reduces the noise level in the most unstable and difficult feedback loop at LIGO by 30 to 100 times, improving the stability of its highly-sensitive interferometer mirrors. Applying our method to all of LIGO’s mirror control loops could help astronomers detect and gather data about hundreds of more events per year, in far greater detail.In the future, Deep Loop Shaping could also be applied to many other engineering problems involving vibration suppression, noise cancellation and highly dynamic or unstable systems important in aerospace, robotics, and structural engineering.Measuring across the universeLIGO uses the interference of laser light to measure the properties of gravitational waves. By studying these properties, scientists can figure out what caused them and where they came from. The observatory’s lasers reflect off mirrors positioned 4 kilometers apart, housed in the world’s largest vacuum chambers.

Aerial view of LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory) in Livingston, Louisiana, USA. The observatory’s lasers reflect off mirrors positioned 4 kilometers apart. Photo credit of Caltech/MIT/LIGO Lab.

Since first detecting gravitational waves produced by a pair of colliding black holes, in 2015, verifying the predictions of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity, LIGO’s measurements have deeply changed our understanding of the universe.With this observatory, astronomers have detected hundreds of black hole and neutron star collisions, proven the existence of binary black hole systems, seen new black holes formed in neutron star collisions, studied the creation of heavy elements like gold and more.Astronomers already know a lot about the largest and smallest black holes, but we only have limited data on intermediate-mass black holes — considered the “missing link” to understanding galaxy evolution.Until now, LIGO has only been capable of observing very few of these systems. To help astronomers capture more detail and data of this phenomena, we worked to improve the most difficult part of the control system and expand how far away we can see these events.


Studying the universe using gravity instead of light, is like listening instead of looking. This work allows us to tune in to the bass.

Rana Adhikari, Professor of Physics at the Caltech, 2025

Reducing noise and stabilizing the systemAs gravitational waves pass through LIGO’s two 4 kilometer arms, they warp the space between them, changing the distance between the mirrors at either end. These tiny differences in length are measured using light interference to an accuracy of 10^-19 meters, which is 1/10’000 the size of a proton. With measurements this small, LIGO’s detector mirrors must be kept extremely still, isolated from environmental disturbance.

Closeup photograph of LIGO, which uses strong lasers and mirrors to detect gravitational waves in the universe, generated by events like collisions and mergers of black holes. Photo credit of Caltech/MIT/LIGO Lab.

This requires one system for passive mechanical isolation and another control system for actively suppressing vibrations. Too little control causes the mirrors to swing, making it impossible to measure anything. But too much control actually amplifies vibrations in the system, instead of suppressing them, drowning out the signal in certain frequency ranges.These vibrations, known as “control noise”, are a critical blocker to improving LIGO’s ability to peer into the universe. Our team designed Deep Loop Shaping to move beyond traditional methods, such as the linear control design methods currently in operation, to remove the controller as a meaningful cause of noise.A more effective control systemDeep Loop Shaping leverages a reinforcement learning method using frequency domain rewards and surpasses state-of-the-art feedback control performance.In a simulated LIGO environment, we trained a controller that tries to avoid amplifying noise in the observation band used for measuring gravitational waves — the band where we need the mirror to be still to see events like black hole mergers of up to a few hundred solar masses.

Diagram showing LIGO’s intricate systems of lasers and mirrors. A distributed control system actively adjusts the mirrors, counteracting the laser radiation pressure and vibrations from external sources.

Through repeated interaction, guided by frequency domain rewards, the controller learns to suppress the control noise in the observation band. In other words, our controllers learn to stabilize the mirrors without adding harmful control noise, bringing noise levels down by a factor of ten or more, below the amount of vibrations caused by quantum fluctuations in the radiation pressure of light reflecting off the mirrors.Strong performance across simulation and hardwareWe tested our controllers on the real LIGO system in Livingston, Louisiana, USA — finding that they worked as well on hardware as in simulation.Our results show that Deep Loop Shaping controls noise up to 30-100 times better than existing controllers, and it eliminated the most unstable and difficult feedback loop as a meaningful source of noise on LIGO for the first time.

Line chart showing the resulting control noise spectrum using our Deep Loop Shaping method. There is an improvement of 30-100 times in the injected control noise levels in the most unstable and difficult feedback control loop.

In repeated experiments, we confirmed that our controller keeps the observatory’s system stable over prolonged periods.Better understanding the nature of the universeDeep Loop Shaping pushes the boundaries of what’s currently possible in astrophysics by solving a critical blocker to studying gravitational waves.Applying Deep Loop Shaping to LIGO’s entire mirror control system has the potential to eliminate noise from the control system itself, paving the way for expanding its cosmological reach.Beyond significantly improving how existing gravitational wave observatories measure further and dimmer sources, we expect our work to influence the design of future observatories, both on Earth and in space — and ultimately help connect missing links throughout the universe for the first time.

Learn more about our work

AcknowledgementsThis research was done by Jonas Buchli, Brendan Tracey, Tomislav Andric, Christopher Wipf, Yu Him Justin Chiu, Matthias Lochbrunner, Craig Donner, Rana X Adhikari, Jan Harms, Iain Barr, Roland Hafner, Andrea Huber, Abbas Abdolmaleki, Charlie Beattie, Joseph Betzwieser, Serkan Cabi, Jonas Degrave, Yuzhu Dong, Leslie Fritz, Anchal Gupta, Oliver Groth, Sandy Huang, Tamara Norman, Hannah Openshaw, Jameson Rollins, Greg Thornton, George van den Driessche, Markus Wulfmeier, Pushmeet Kohli, Martin Riedmiller and is a collaboration of LIGO, Caltech, GSSI and GDM.We’d like to thank the fantastic LIGO instrument team for their tireless work on keeping the observatories up and running and supporting our experiments.

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VaultGemma: The world’s most capable differentially private LLM

AcknowledgementsWe’d like to thank the entire Gemma and Google Privacy teams for their contributions and support throughout this project, in particular, Peter Kairouz, Brendan McMahan and Dan Ramage for feedback on the blog post, Mark Simborg and Kimberly Schwede for help with visualizations, and the teams at Google that helped with algorithm design, infrastructure implementation, and production maintenance. The following people directly contributed to the work presented here (ordered alphabetically): Borja Balle, Zachary Charles, Christopher A. Choquette-Choo, Lynn Chua, Prem Eruvbetine, Badih Ghazi, Steve He, Yangsibo Huang, Armand Joulin, George Kaissis, Pritish Kamath, Ravi Kumar, Daogao Liu, Ruibo Liu, Pasin Manurangsi, Thomas Mesnard, Andreas Terzis, Tris Warkentin, Da Yu, and Chiyuan Zhang.

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Gemini achieves gold-level performance at the International Collegiate Programming Contest World Finals

AcknowledgementsWe thank the International Collegiate Programming Contest (ICPC) for their support.This project was a large-scale collaboration, and its success is due to the combined efforts of many individuals and teams. Hanzhao (Maggie) Lin led the overall technical direction for Gemini competitive programming and ICPC 2025 efforts, and co-led with Heng-Tze Cheng on the overall research and execution.The leads and key contributors of the ICPC 2025 team are the following: Chenkai Kuang, Yuan Liu, Zhaoqi Leng, Jieming Mao, Lalit Jain, Chenjie Gu, Goran Žužić, Adams Yu, YaGuang Li, Xiaomeng Yang, Yang Xiao, Adam Zhang, Alex Vitvitskyi, Ashkan Norouzi Fard, Blanca Huergo, Evan Liu, Golnaz Ghiasi, Huan Gui, John Aslanides, Jonathan Lee, Kuba Lacki, Larisa Markeeva, Luheng He, Nigamaa Nayakanti, Nikos Parotsidis, Paul Covington, Petar Veličković, Qijun Tan, Ragha Kotikalapudi, Renshen Wang, Sasan Tavakkol, Shuang Liu, Sidharth Mudgal, Steve Li, Vincent Cohen-Addad, Xianghong Luo, Xinying Song, Yiming Li and Zicheng Xu.The advanced Gemini Deep Think for ICPC was built on foundational research jointly from the Gemini post-training, Thinking and Coding areas including: Aja Huang, Andreas Kirsch, Ankesh Anand, Archit Sharma, Betty Chan, Chenxi Liu, Cosmo Du, Dawsen Hwang, Dustin Tran, Edward Lockhart, Feryal Behbahani, Fred Zhang, Garrett Bingham, Hao Zhou, Hoang Nguyen, Irene Cai, Jian Li, Jarrod Kahn, Junehyuk Jung, Junsu Kim, Kate Baumli, Kefan Xiao, Le Hou, Lei Yu, Maciej Kula, Mahan Malihi, Marcelo Menegali, Miklós Z. Horváth, Mirek Olšák, Nate Kushman, Pei Sun, Pol Moreno, Rosemary Ke, Sahitya Potluri, Shane Gu, Shubha Raghvendra, Siamak Shakeri, Sid Lall, Steven Zheng, Thang Luong, Theophane Weber, Tong He, Tianhe (Kevin) Yu, Trieu Trinh, Vikas Yadav, Vinay Ramasesh, Vinh Tran, Weiyue Wang, Wilfried Bounsi, Xiyang Luo, Yangsibo Huang, Yi Tay, Yong Cheng, Yuan Zhang, Yuri Chervonyi and Yujing Zhang.This effort was advised by Quoc Le and Vahab Mirrokni, with program and operation management from Kristen Chiafullo, Eric Ni, Srinivas Tadepall, Jessica Lo and Sajjad Zafar.We’d also like to thank our competitive programming experts for providing insights: Alexander Grushetsky, Chun-Sung Ferng, Ilya Kornakov, Liang Bai, Petr Mitrichev and Sergey Rogulenko.We want to extend our deepest gratitude to the Gemini serving team: Abhijit Karmarkar, Cip Baetu, Emanuel Taropa, Evan Senter, Federico Lebron, Girish Ramchandra Rao, Greg Anielak, Hamish Tomlinson, Hayden Jeune, Jia Zhao, Joe Stanton, Jonathan Kairupan, Juliette Love, Justin Mao-Jones, Kashyap Krishnakumar, Ken Franko, Mahesh Palekar, Minh Giang, Nikhil Sethi, Rohan Jain, Rohit Varkey Thankachan, Soheil Hassas Yeganeh, Thomas Jimma and Vitor Rodrigues.Further thanks to the following people for support, collaboration, and advice: Benoit Schillings, Ed Chi, Koray Kavukcuoglu, Jeff Dean, Oriol Vinyals, Noam Shazeer, James Manyika, Yossi Matias, Philipp Schindler, Pushmeet Kohli, Demis Hassabis, Sergey Brin, Melvin Johnson, Omer Levy, Timothy Lillicrap, Anca Dragan, Slav Petrov, Ya Xu, Madhavi Sewak, Erika Gemzer, Eugénie Rives, Erica Moreira, Tulsee Doshi, Alex Goldin, Jane Labanowski, Andy Forbes, Sean Nakamoto, Yifeng Lu, Denny Zhou, Alexander Novikov, Cristy Hayner, Hanada Tatsuki, Harsh Dhand, Ritu Ghai, Hiroki Kayama, Jenny Rizk Nicholls, Jo Chick, Pratyusha Mukherjee, Shibo Wang, Carlos Guia, Xiaofan Zhang.Finally, we thank Dr. Bill Poucher from the ICPC global for the support and endorsement.The ICPC global has confirmed that our submitted solutions are complete and accepted. It is important to note that their review does not extend to validating our system, processes, or underlying model.

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Discovering new solutions to century-old problems in fluid dynamics

Our new method could help mathematicians leverage AI techniques to tackle long-standing challenges in mathematics, physics and engineering.For centuries, mathematicians have developed complex equations to describe the fundamental physics involved in fluid dynamics. These laws govern everything from the swirling vortex of a hurricane to airflow lifting an airplane’s wing.Experts can carefully craft scenarios that make theory go against practice, leading to situations which could never physically happen. These situations, such as when quantities like velocity or pressure become infinite, are called ‘singularities’ or ‘blow ups’. They help mathematicians identify fundamental limitations in the equations of fluid dynamics, and help improve our understanding of how the physical world functions.In a new paper, we introduce an entirely new family of mathematical blow ups to some of the most complex equations that describe fluid motion. We’re publishing this work in collaboration with mathematicians and geophysicists from institutions including Brown University, New York University and Stanford UniversityOur approach presents a new way to leverage AI techniques to tackle longstanding challenges in mathematics, physics and engineering that demand unprecedented accuracy and interpretability.The importance of unstable singularitiesStability is a crucial aspect of singularity formation. A singularity is considered stable if it is robust to small changes. Conversely, an unstable singularity requires extremely precise conditions.It’s expected that unstable singularities play a major role in foundational questions in fluid dynamics because mathematicians believe no stable singularities exist for the complex boundary-free 3D Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. Finding any singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations is one of the six famous Millennium Prize Problems that are still unsolved.With our novel AI methods, we presented the first systematic discovery of new families of unstable singularities across three different fluid equations. We also observed a pattern emerging as the solutions become increasingly unstable. The number characterizing the speed of the blow up, lambda (λ), can be plotted against the order of instability, which is the number of unique ways the solution can deviate from the blow up. The pattern was visible in two of the equations studied, the Incompressible Porous Media (IPM) and Boussinesq equations. This suggests the existence of more unstable solutions, whose hypothesized lambda values lie along the same line.

We discovered these singularities by incorporating machine learning techniques such as second order optimizers for training neural networks. These methods allowed us to refine our accuracy to an unprecedented level. For reference, our largest errors addressed are equivalent to predicting the diameter of the Earth to within a few centimeters.Here we show an example of the vorticity (Ω) field found for one of the equations studied. This is a measure of how much the fluid is spinning at each point.

We also show a one-dimensional slice through the same field along an axis for all of the instabilities we discovered, showing the evolution of increasingly unstable singularities.

Novel method navigates a vast landscape of singularitiesOur approach is based on the use of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). Unlike conventional neural networks that learn from vast datasets, we trained our models to match equations which model the laws of physics. The network’s output is constantly checked against what the physical equations expect, and it learns by minimizing its ‘residual’, the amount by which its solution fails to satisfy the equations.

Our use of PINNs goes beyond their typical role as general-purpose tools used for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). By embedding mathematical insights directly into the training, we were able to capture elusive solutions — such as unstable singularities — that have long-challenged conventional methods.At the same time, we developed a high-precision framework that pushes PINNs to near-machine precision, enabling the level of accuracy required for rigorous computer-assisted proofs.A new era of computer-assisted mathematicsThis breakthrough represents a new way of doing mathematical research, combining deep mathematical insights with cutting-edge AI. We’re excited for this work to help usher in a new era where long-standing challenges are tackled with AI and computer-assisted proofs.

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Strengthening our Frontier Safety Framework

We’re expanding our risk domains and refining our risk assessment process.AI breakthroughs are transforming our everyday lives, from advancing mathematics, biology and astronomy to realizing the potential of personalized education. As we build increasingly powerful AI models, we’re committed to responsibly developing our technologies and taking an evidence-based approach to staying ahead of emerging risks.Today, we’re publishing the third iteration of our Frontier Safety Framework (FSF) — our most comprehensive approach yet to identifying and mitigating severe risks from advanced AI models.This update builds upon our ongoing collaborations with experts across industry, academia and government. We’ve also incorporated lessons learned from implementing previous versions and evolving best practices in frontier AI safety.Key updates to the FrameworkAddressing the risks of harmful manipulationWith this update, we’re introducing a Critical Capability Level (CCL)* focused on harmful manipulation — specifically, AI models with powerful manipulative capabilities that could be misused to systematically and substantially change beliefs and behaviors in identified high stakes contexts over the course of interactions with the model, reasonably resulting in additional expected harm at severe scale.This addition builds on and operationalizes research we’ve done to identify and evaluate mechanisms that drive manipulation from generative AI. Going forward, we’ll continue to invest in this domain to better understand and measure the risks associated with harmful manipulation.Adapting our approach to misalignment risksWe’ve also expanded our Framework to address potential future scenarios where misaligned AI models might interfere with operators’ ability to direct, modify or shut down their operations.While our previous version of the Framework included an exploratory approach centered on instrumental reasoning CCLs (i.e., warning levels specific to when an AI model starts to think deceptively), with this update we now provide further protocols for our machine learning research and development CCLs focused on models that could accelerate AI research and development to potentially destabilizing levels.In addition to the misuse risks arising from these capabilities, there are also misalignment risks stemming from a model’s potential for undirected action at these capability levels, and the likely integration of such models into AI development and deployment processes.To address risks posed by CCLs, we conduct safety case reviews prior to external launches when relevant CCLs are reached. This involves performing detailed analyses demonstrating how risks have been reduced to manageable levels. For advanced machine learning research and development CCLs, large-scale internal deployments can also pose risk, so we are now expanding this approach to include such deployments.Sharpening our risk assessment processOur Framework is designed to address risks in proportion to their severity. We’ve sharpened our CCL definitions specifically to identify the critical threats that warrant the most rigorous governance and mitigation strategies. We continue to apply safety and security mitigations before specific CCL thresholds are reached and as part of our standard model development approach.Lastly, in this update, we go into more detail about our risk assessment process. Building on our core early-warning evaluations, we describe how we conduct holistic assessments that include systematic risk identification, comprehensive analyses of model capabilities and explicit determinations of risk acceptability.Advancing our commitment to frontier safetyThis latest update to our Frontier Safety Framework represents our continued commitment to taking a scientific and evidence-based approach to tracking and staying ahead of AI risks as capabilities advance toward AGI. By expanding our risk domains and strengthening our risk assessment processes, we aim to ensure that transformative AI benefits humanity, while minimizing potential harms.Our Framework will continue evolving based on new research, stakeholder input and lessons from implementation. We remain committed to working collaboratively across industry, academia and government.The path to beneficial AGI requires not just technical breakthroughs, but also robust frameworks to mitigate risks along the way. We hope that our updated Frontier Safety Framework contributes meaningfully to this collective effort.

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The Download: mysteries of the immunome, and how to choose a climate tech pioneer

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. How healthy am I? My immunome knows the score.   Made up of 1.8 trillion cells and trillions more proteins, metabolites, mRNA, and other biomolecules, every person’s immunome is different, and it is constantly changing.It’s shaped by everything we have ever been exposed to physically and emotionally, and powerfully influences everything from our vulnerability to viruses and cancer to how well we age to whether we tolerate certain foods better than others.Yet as critical as the immunome is to each of us, it has remained largely beyond the reach of modern medicine. Now, thanks to a slew of new technologies, understanding this vital and mysterious system is within our grasp, paving the way for powerful new tools and tests to help us better assess, diagnose and treat diseases. Read the full story. —David Ewing Duncan
The story is a collaboration between MIT Technology Review and Aventine, a non-profit research foundation that creates and supports content about how technology and science are changing the way we live.
3 takeaways about climate tech right now On Monday, we published our 2025 edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch. Curating this list gives our team a chance to take a step back and consider the broader picture. What industries are making progress or lagging behind? Which countries or regions are seeing quick changes? Who’s likely to succeed?  This year is an especially interesting moment in the climate tech world, something we grappled with while choosing companies. Here are three of the biggest takeaways from the process of building this list. —Casey Crownhart This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here. 2025 climate tech companies to watch: Cemvision and its low-emissions cement Cement is one of the most used materials on the planet, and the industry emits billions of tons of greenhouse gasses annually. Swedish startup Cemvision wants to use waste materials and alternative fuels to help reduce climate pollution from cement production. Read the full story.

—Casey Crownhart Cemvision is one of our 10 climate tech companies to watch—our annual list of some of the most promising climate tech firms on the planet. Check out the rest of the list here. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 OpenAI wasn’t expecting its Sora copyright backlash  CEO Sam Altman says the company will reverse course and “let rightsholders decide how to proceed.” (The Verge)+ It appears to be struggling to work out which requests to approve right now. (404 Media)+ Sam Altman says video IP is a lot trickier than for images. (Insider $)+ What comes next for AI copyright lawsuits? (MIT Technology Review) 2 Apple has removed another ICE app from its storeThis one archives video evidence of abuses, rather than tracking officers’ locations. (404 Media)+ Another effort to track ICE raids was just taken offline. (MIT Technology Review)3 How private firms are helping economists work out what’s going onIn the absence of economic data from the US government, experts are getting creative. (WP $)+ How to fine-tune AI for prosperity. (MIT Technology Review) 4 China is cracking down on its rare earth exportsIt’s keen to protect its leverage over the critical minerals. (FT $)+ This rare earth metal shows us the future of our planet’s resources. (MIT Technology Review)
5 Microsoft wants to become a chatbot powerhouse in its own rightWhich means lessening its dependence on OpenAI. (WSJ $) 6 High schoolers are starting romantic relationships with AI modelsIt’s a whole new issue for schools and parents to grapple with. (NPR)+ It’s surprisingly easy to stumble into a relationship with an AI chatbot. (MIT Technology Review)
7 Those Prime Day savings are often too good to be trueBuyer beware. (WP $) 8 The future of the AI boom hinges on a small Dutch cityChipmaker ASML is planning a massive expansion—but is the surrounding area ready to support it? (Bloomberg $)+ Welcome to robot city. (MIT Technology Review) 9 Ferrari’s first electric car is on the horizonIt’s expected to go on sale next year. (Reuters)+ It sports four motors and more than 1,000 horsepower. (Ars Technica)10 Inside the enduring appeal of The SimsKeeping a house full of angry little materialists alive is still lots of fun. (NYT $) Quote of the day “The ICE raid is just the cherry on top. How is anybody going to trust us going forward?”
—Betony Jones, a senior fellow at the Roosevelt Institute think tank, tells IEEE Spectrum how an ICE raid on a Hyundai EV factory in Georgia has shaken the industry. One more thing The flawed logic of rushing out extreme climate solutionsEarly in 2022, entrepreneur Luke Iseman says, he released a pair of sulfur dioxide–filled weather balloons from Mexico’s Baja California peninsula, in the hope that they’d burst miles above Earth.It was a trivial act in itself, effectively a tiny, DIY act of solar geoengineering, the controversial proposal that the world could counteract climate change by releasing particles that reflect more sunlight back into space.
Entrepreneurs like Iseman invoke the stark dangers of climate change to explain why they do what they do—even if they don’t know how effective their interventions are. But experts say that urgency doesn’t create a social license to ignore the underlying dangers or leapfrog the scientific process. Read the full story. —James Temple We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + What language did residents of the ancient Mesoamerican city of Teotihuacan speak? We’re finally starting to find out.+ If you’re unsure whether an animal is safe to pet, this handy guide is a good starting point.+ The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s new ancient Egypt exhibition sounds brilliant.+ This story digging into the psychology experiment behind Star Wars’ special effects is completely bonkers.

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Uniper Inks 7-Year Deal for Biomethane Supply from Spain

Uniper SE has signed an agreement with Fivebioenergy SL for supply from three of Spain’s biggest biomethane projects for seven years. The Madrid-based developer will start deliveries 2027, a joint statement said, without disclosing the contract volume. “This agreement places Uniper in a strong position to complement the growing share of renewables with low-carbon energy sources and to accelerate the decarbonization of both road and maritime sectors”, the statement said. “It is a significant milestone in the ongoing commitment to delivering reliable, sustainable energy to customers across Europe. “To support the import of renewable and low-carbon gases, Uniper is expanding its portfolio accordingly. “Next to hydrogen and its derivates, biomethane plays a crucial role in achieving a sustainable energy mix”. Five Bioenergy chief information officer Ivan Copin said the agreement with the German power and gas utility “secures a stable market for our biomethane while reinforcing our vision of a decarbonized Europe powered by renewable energy”. All three plants in the agreement are to rise in Murcia, the statement said. Earlier this year Five Bioenergy contracted HoSt Energy Systems to deliver five of the biggest biogas plants in Spain. The projects in the regions of Castilla Leon, Aragon and Murcia will include biogas upgrading systems for nearly 0.8 terawatt hours of biomethane production and carbon dioxide (CO2) liquefaction plants to recover and liquefy the CO2 from the anaerobic digestion process, HoSt said in a statement April 7. Two of the projects under construction in Lorca and Milagros will process a total of up to 387,000 metric tons of agricultural residues including cow, sheep and poultry manure, alongside expired food such as slaughterhouse waste and distillery waste, HoSt said. “The feedstock is supplied by local farmers who get value for their waste as the digestate, the digested matter, from the biogas plant is converted

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BMI Flags Trends It Says Will Shape Future of Oil, Gas

A BMI “megatrends analysis” sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group this week highlighted “key trends within trade and globalization which will shape the future of the oil and gas industry until 2050”. One of these trends is that “divergent climate policies drive carbon-differentiated oil and gas trade”, the report pointed out. “Divergent decarbonization pathways and cyclical stop-start climate action will reshape global oil and gas markets,” a description of the trend in the report noted. “As governments pursue differing policy mixes, trade will fragment, forming loose blocs defined by carbon intensity and regulatory alignment. After decades of deepening integration, fungibility will give way to a more fractured energy system,” it added. Looking at the “winners” of this trend, the report flagged “low-carbon producers and exporters and those with carbon-management capabilities that can capture price premia”. It also highlighted “oilfield services and technology providers offering carbon management solutions, efficiency and electrification technologies and emissions certification and compliance services”, “trading intermediaries and financial institutions exploiting policy-driven arbitrage and structuring products around carbondifferentiated trade”, and “carbon accounting and MRV providers supplying emissions monitoring, verification and certification services”. The report flagged “high-carbon producers and exporters with limited carbon-management capabilities that face structural discounts on their O&G” as “losers” of the trend. “Oilfield services and technology providers tied to high-emissions operations with limited capacity to diversify geographically or technologically” and “capital providers and insurers exposed to carbon-intensive assets at increased risk of asset stranding” were also predicted to lose out in the report. Another trend highlighted in the report is that “energy security fears lead to a restructured oil and gas trade”. “The continuing global fragmentation into a multipolar world order would divide up existing trade blocs and necessitate a re-routing of vital energy supplies from allied states,” the report noted in a description

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How healthy am I? My immunome knows the score.  

The story is a collaboration between MIT Technology Review and Aventine, a non-profit research foundation that creates and supports content about how technology and science are changing the way we live. It’s not often you get a text about the robustness of your immune system, but that’s what popped up on my phone last spring. Sent by John Tsang, an immunologist at Yale, the text came after his lab had put my blood through a mind-boggling array of newfangled tests. The result—think of it as a full-body, high-resolution CT scan of my immune system—would reveal more about the state of my health than any test I had ever taken. And it could potentially tell me far more than I wanted to know. “David,” the text read, “you are the red dot.” Tsang was referring to an image he had attached to the text that showed a graph with a scattering of black dots representing other people whose immune systems had been evaluated—and a lone red one. There also was a score: 0.35. I had no idea what any of this meant. The red dot was the culmination of an immuno-quest I had begun on an autumn afternoon a few months earlier, when a postdoc in Tsang’s lab drew several vials of my blood. It was also a significant milestone in a decades-long journey I’ve taken as a journalist covering life sciences and medicine. Over the years, I’ve offered myself up as a human guinea pig for hundreds of tests promising new insights into my health and mortality. In 2001, I was one of the first humans to have my DNA sequenced. Soon after, in the early 2000s, researchers tapped into my proteome—proteins circulating in my blood. Then came assessments of my microbiome, metabolome, and much more. I have continued to test-drive the latest protocols and devices, amassing tens of terabytes of data on myself, and I’ve reported on the results in dozens of articles and a book called Experimental Man. Over time, the tests have gotten better and more informative, but no test I had previously taken promised to deliver results more comprehensive or closer to revealing the truth about my underlying state of health than what John Tsang was offering.
Over the years, I’ve offered myself up as a human guinea pig for hundreds of tests promising new insights into my health and mortality. But no test I had previously taken promised to deliver results more comprehensive or closer to revealing the truth about my underlying state of health. It also was not lost on me that I’m now 20-plus years older than I was when I took those first tests. Back in my 40s, I was ridiculously healthy. Since then, I’ve been battered by various pathogens, stresses, and injuries, including two bouts of covid and long covid—and, well, life. But I’d kept my apprehensions to myself as Tsang, a slim, perpetually smiling man who directs the Yale Center for Systems and Engineering Immunology, invited me into his office in New Haven to introduce me to something called the human immunome.
John Tsang has helped create a new test for your immune system. JULIE BIDWELL Made up of 1.8 trillion cells and trillions more proteins, metabolites, mRNA, and other biomolecules, every person’s immunome is different, and it is constantly changing. It’s shaped by our DNA, past illnesses, the air we have breathed, the food we have eaten, our age, and the traumas and stresses we have experienced—in short, everything we have ever been exposed to physically and emotionally. Right now, your immune system is hard at work identifying and fending off viruses and rogue cells that threaten to turn cancerous—or maybe already have. And it is doing an excellent job of it all, or not, depending on how healthy it happens to be at this particular moment. Yet as critical as the immunome is to each of us, this universe of cells and molecules has remained largely beyond the reach of modern medicine—a vast yet inaccessible operating system that powerfully influences everything from our vulnerability to viruses and cancer to how well we age to whether we tolerate certain foods better than others. Now, thanks to a slew of new technologies and to scientists like Tsang, who is on the Steering Committee of the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub New York, understanding this vital and mysterious system is within our grasp, paving the way for powerful new tools and tests to help us better assess, diagnose and treat diseases. Already, new research is revealing patterns in the ways our bodies respond to stress and disease. Scientists are creating contrasting portraits of weak and robust immunomes—portraits that someday, it’s hoped, could offer new insights into patient care and perhaps detect illnesses before symptoms appear. There are plans afoot to deploy this knowledge and technology on a global scale, which would enable scientists to observe the effects of climate, geography, and countless other factors on the immunome. The results could transform what it means to be healthy and how we identify and treat disease. It all begins with a test that can tell you whether your immune system is healthy or not. Reading the immunome Sitting in his office last fall, Tsang—a systems immunologist whose expertise combines computer science and immunology— began my tutorial in immunomics by introducing me to a study that he and his team wrote up in a 2024 paper published in Nature Medicine. It described the results of measurements made on blood samples taken from 270 subjects—tests similar to the ones Tsang’s team would be running on me. In the study, Tsang and his colleagues looked at the immune systems of 228 patients diagnosed with a variety of genetic disorders and a control group of 42 healthy people.
To help me visualize what my results might look like, Tsang opened his laptop to reveal several colorful charts from the study, punctuated by black dots representing each person evaluated. The results reminded me vaguely of abstract paintings by Joan Miró. But in place of colorful splotches, whirls, and circles were an assortment of scatter plots, Gantt charts, and heat maps tinted in greens, blues, oranges, and purples. It all looked like gibberish to me. Luckily, Tsang was willing to serve as my guide. Flashing his perpetually patient smile, he explained that these colorful jumbles depicted what his team had uncovered about each subject after taking blood samples and assessing the details of how well their immune cells, proteins, mRNA, and other immune system components were doing their job. IBRAHIM RAYINTAKATH The results placed people—represented by the individual dots—on a left-to-right continuum, ranging from those with unhealthy immunomes on the left to those with healthy immunomes on the right. Background colors, meanwhile, were used to identify people with different medical conditions affecting their immune systems. For example, olive-green indicated those with auto-immune disorders; orange backgrounds were designated for individuals with no known disease history. Tsang said he and his team would be placing me on a similar graph after they finished analyzing my blood.
Tsang’s measurements go significantly beyond what can be discerned from the handful of immune biomarkers that people routinely get tested for today. “The main immune cell panel typically ordered by a physician is called a CBC differential,” he told me. CBC, which stands for “complete blood count,” is a decades-old type of analysis that counts levels of red blood cells, hemoglobin, and basic immune cell types (neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, basophils, and eosinophils). Changes in these levels can indicate whether a person’s immune system might be reacting to a virus or other infection, cancer, or something else. Other blood tests—like one that looks for elevated levels of C-reactive protein, which can indicate inflammation associated with heart disease—are more specific than the CBC. But they still rely on blunt counting—in this case of certain proteins. Tsang’s assessment, by contrast, tests up to a million cells, proteins, mRNA and immune biomolecules—significantly more than the CBC and others. His protocol is designed to paint a more holistic portrait of a person’s immune system by not only counting cells and molecules but also by assessing their interactions. The CBC “doesn’t tell me as a physician what the cells being counted are doing,” says Rachel Sparks, a clinical immunologist who was the lead author of the Nature Medicine study and is now a translational medicine physician with the drug giant AstraZeneca. “I just know that there are more neutrophils than normal, which may or may not indicate that they’re behaving badly. We now have technology that allows us to see at a granular level what a cell is actually doing when a virus appears—how it’s changing and reacting.” Tsang’s measurements go significantly beyond what can be discerned from the handful of immune biomarkers that people routinely get tested for today. His assessment tests up to a million cells, proteins, mRNA and immune biomolecules. Such breakthroughs have been made possible thanks to a raft of new and improved technologies that have evolved over the past decade, allowing scientists like Tsang and Sparks to explore the intricacies of the immunome with newfound precision. These include devices that can count myriad different types of cells and biomolecules, as well as advanced sequencers that identify and characterize DNA, RNA, proteins, and other molecules. There are now instruments that also can measure thousands of changes and reactions that occur inside a single immune cell as it reacts to a virus or other threat. Tsang and Spark’s’ team used data generated by such measurements to identify and characterize a series of signals distinctive to unhealthy immune systems. Then they used the presence or absence of these signals to create a numerical assessment of the health of a person’s immunome—a score they call an “immune health metric,” or IHM.
Clinical immunologist Rachel Sparks hopes new tests can improve medical care. JARED SOARES To make sense of the crush of data being collected, Tsang’s team used machine-learning algorithms that correlated the results of the many measurements with a patient’s known health status and age. They also used AI to compare their findings with immune system data collected elsewhere. All this allowed them to determine and validate an IHM score for each person, and to place it on their spectrum, identifying that person as healthy or not. It all came together for the first time with the publication of the Nature Medicine paper, in which Tsang and his colleagues reported the results from testing multiple immune variables in the 270 subjects. They also announced a remarkable discovery: Patients with different kinds of diseases reacted with similar disruptions to their immunomes. For instance, many showed a lower level of the aptly named natural killer immune cells, regardless of what they were suffering from. Critically, the immune profiles of those with diagnosed diseases tended to look very different from those belonging to the outwardly healthy people in the study. And, as expected, immune health declined in the older patients. But then the results got really interesting. In a few cases, the immune systems of  unhealthy and healthy people looked similar, with some people appearing near the “healthy” area of the chart even though they were known to have diseases. Most likely this was because their symptoms were in remission and not causing an immune reaction at the moment when their blood was drawn, Tsang told me.  In other cases, people without a known disease showed up on the chart closer to those who were known to be sick. “Some of these people who appear to be in good health are overlapping with pathology that traditional metrics can’t spot,” says Tsang, whose Nature Medicine paper reported that roughly half the healthy individuals in the study had IHM scores that overlapped with those of people known to be sick. Either these seemingly healthy people had normal immune systems that were busy fending off, say, a passing virus, or  their immune systems had been impacted by aging and the vicissitudes of life. Potentially more worrisome, they were harboring an illness or stress that was not yet making them ill but might do so eventually. These findings have obvious implications for medicine. Spotting a low immune score in a seemingly healthy person could make it possible to identify and start treating an illness before symptoms appear, diseases worsen, or tumors grow and metastasize. IHM-style evaluations could also provide clues as to why some people respond differently to viruses like the one that causes covid, and why vaccines—which are designed to activate a healthy immune system—might not work as well in people whose immune systems are compromised. Spotting a low immune score in a seemingly healthy person could make it possible to identify and start treating an illness before symptoms appear, diseases worsen, or tumors grow and metastasize. “One of the more surprising things about the last pandemic was that all sorts of random younger people who seemed very healthy got sick and then they were gone,” says Mark Davis, a Stanford immunologist who helped pioneer the science being developed in labs like Tsang’s. “Some had underlying conditions like obesity and diabetes, but some did not. So the question is, could we have pointed out that something was off with these folks’ immune systems? Could we have diagnosed that and warned people to take extra precautions?”
Tsang’s IHM test is designed to answer a simple question: What is the relative health of your immune system? But there are other assessments being developed to provide more detailed information on how the body is doing. Tsang’s own team is working on a panel of additional scores aimed at getting finer detail on specific immune conditions. These include a test that measures the health of a person’s bone marrow, which makes immune cells. “If you have a bone marrow stress or inflammatory condition in the bone marrow, you could have lower capacity to produce cells, which will be reflected by this score,” he says. Another detailed metric will measure protein levels to predict how a person will respond to a virus. Tsang hopes that an IHM-style test will one day be part of a standard physical exam—a snapshot of a patient’s immune system that could inform care. For instance, has a period of intense stress compromised the immune system, making it less able to fend off this season’s flu? Will someone’s score predict a better or worse response to a vaccine or a cancer drug? How does a person’s immune system change with age?
Or, as I anxiously wondered while waiting to learn my own score, will the results reveal an underlying disorder or disease, silently ticking away until it shows itself? Toward a human immunome project   The quest to create advanced tests like the IHM for the immune system began more than 15 years ago, when scientists like Mark Davis became frustrated with a field in which research—primarily in mice—was focused mostly on individual immune cells and proteins. In 2007 he launched the Stanford Human Immune Monitoring Center, one of the first efforts to conceptualize the human immunome as a holistic, body-wide network in human beings. Speaking by Zoom from his office in Palo Alto, California, Davis told me that the effort had spawned other projects, including a landmark twin study showing that a lot of immune variation is not genetic, which was then the prevailing theory, but is heavily influenced by environmental factors—a major shift in scientists’ understanding. Shai Shen-Orr sees a day when people will check their immune scores on an app. COURTESY OF SHAI SHEN-ORR Davis and others also laid the groundwork for tests like John Tsang’s by discovering how a T cell—among the most common and important immune players—can recognize pathogens, cancerous cells, and other threats, triggering defensive measures that can include destroying the threat. This and other discoveries have revealed many of the basic mechanics of how immune cells work, says Davis, “but there’s still a lot we have to learn.” One researcher working with Davis in those early days was Shai Shen-Orr, who is now director of the Zimin Institute for AI Solutions in Healthcare at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, based in Haifa, Israel. (He’s also a frequent collaborator with Tsang.) Shen-Orr, like Tsang, is a systems immunologist. He recalls that in 2007, when he was a postdoc in Davis’s lab, immunologists had identified around 100 cell types and a similar number of cytokines—proteins that act as messengers in the immune system. But they weren’t able to measure them simultaneously, which limited visibility into how the immune system works as a whole. Today, Shen-Orr says, immunologists can measure hundreds of cell types and thousands of proteins and watch them interact. Shen-Orr’s current lab has developed its own version of an immunome test that he calls IMM-AGE (short for “immune age”), the basics of which were published in a 2019 paper in Nature Medicine. IMM-AGE looks at the composition of people’s immune systems—how many of each type of immune cell they have and how these numbers change as they age. His team has used this information primarily to ascertain a person’s risk of heart disease. Shen-Orr also has been a vociferous advocate for expanding the pool of test samples, which now come mostly from Americans and Europeans. “We need to understand why different people in different environments react differently and how that works,” he says. “We also need to test a lot more people—maybe millions.” Tsang has seen why a limited sample size can pose problems. In 2013, he says, researchers at the National Institutes of Health came up with a malaria vaccine that was effective for almost everyone who got it during clinical trials conducted in Maryland. “But in Africa,” he says, “it only worked for about 25% of the people.” He attributes this to the significant differences in genetics, diet, climate, and other environmental factors that cause people’s immunomes to develop differently. “Why?” he asks. “What exactly was different about the immune systems in Maryland and Tanzania? That’s what we need to understand so we can design personalized vaccines and treatments.” “What exactly was different about the immune systems in Maryland and Tanzania? That’s what we need to understand so we can design personalized vaccines and treatments.”John Tsang For several years, Tsang and Shen-Orr have advocated going global with testing, “but there has been resistance,” Shen-Orr says. “Look, medicine is conservative and moves slowly, and the technology is expensive and labor intensive.” They finally got the audience they needed at a 2022 conference in La Jolla, California, convened by the Human Immunome Project, or HIP. (The organization was originally founded in 2016 to create more effective vaccines but had recently changed its name to emphasize a pivot from just vaccines to the wider field of immunome science.) It was in La Jolla that they met HIP’s then-new chairperson, Jane Metcalfe, a cofounder of Wired magazine, who saw what was at stake.
“We’ve got all of these advanced molecular immunological profiles being developed,” she said, “but we can’t begin to predict the breadth of immune system variability if we’re  only testing small numbers of people in Palo Alto or Tel Aviv. And that’s when the big aha moment struck us that we need sites everywhere to collect that information so we can build proper computer models and a predictive understanding of the human immune system.” IBRAHIM RAYINTAKATH Following that meeting, HIP created a new scientific plan, with Tsang and Shen-Orr as chief science officers. The group set an ambitious goal of raising around $3 billion over the next 10 years—a goal Tsang and Metcalfe say will be met by working in conjunction with a broad network of public and private supporters. Cutbacks in federal funding for biomedical research in the US may limit funds from this traditional source, but HIP plans to work with government agencies outside the US too, with the goal of creating a comprehensive global immunological database. HIP’s plan is to first develop a pilot version based on Tsang’s test, which it will call the Immune Monitoring Kit, to test a few thousand people in Africa, Australia, East Asia, Europe, the US, and Israel. The initial effort, according to Metcalfe, is expected to begin by the end of the year.   After that, HIP would like to expand to some 150 sites around the world, eventually assessing about 250,000 people and collecting a vast cache of data and insights that Tsang believes will profoundly affect—even revolutionize—clinical medicine, public health, and drug development. My immune health metric score is … As HIP develops its pilot study to take on the world, John Tsang, for better or worse, has added one more North American Caucasian male to the small number of people who have received an IHM score to date. That would be me. It took a long time to get my score, but Tsang didn’t leave me hanging once he pinged me the red dot. “We plotted you with other participants who are clinically quite healthy,” he texted, referring to a cluster of black dots on the grid he had sent, although he cautioned that the group I’m being compared with includes only a few dozen people. “Higher IHM means better immune health,” he wrote, referring to my 0.35 score, which he described as a number on an arbitrary scale. “As you can see, your IHM is right in the middle of a bunch of people 20 years younger.” This was a relief, given that our immune system, like so many other bodily functions, declines with age—though obviously at different rates. Yet I also felt a certain disappointment. To be honest, I had expected more granular detail after having a million or so cells and markers tested—like perhaps some insights on why I got long covid (twice) and others didn’t. Tsang and other scientists are working on ways to extract more specific information from the tests. Still, he insists that the single score itself is a powerful tool to understand the general state of our immunomes, indicating the absence or presence of underlying health issues that might not be revealed in traditional testing. To be honest, I had expected more granular detail after having a million or so cells and markers tested—like perhaps some insights on why I got long covid (twice) and others didn’t. I asked Tsang what my score meant for my future. “Your score is always changing depending on what you’re exposed to and due to age,” he said, adding that the IHM is still so new that it’s hard to know exactly what the score means until researchers do more work—and until HIP can evaluate and compare thousands or hundreds of thousands of people. They also need to keep testing me over time to see how my immune system changes as it’s exposed to new perturbations and stresses. For now, I’m left with a simple number. Though it tells me little about the detailed workings of my immune system, the good news is that it raises no red flags. My immune system, it turns out, is pretty healthy. A few days after receiving my score from Tsang, I heard from Shen-Orr about more results. Tsang had shared my data with his lab so that he could run his IMM-AGE protocol on my immunome and provide me with another score to worry about. Shen-Orr’s result put the age of my immune system at around 57—still 10 years younger than my true age. The coming age of the immunome Shai Shen-Orr imagines a day when people will be able to check their advanced IHM and IMM-AGE scores—or their HIP Immune Monitoring Kit score—on an app after a blood draw, the way they now check health data such as heart rate and blood pressure. Jane Metcalfe talks about linking IHM-type measurements and analyses with rising global temperatures and steamier days and nights to study how global warming might affect the immune system of, say, a newborn or a pregnant woman. “This could be plugged into other people’s models and really help us understand the effects of pollution, nutrition, or climate change on human health,” she says. “I think [in 10 years] I’ll be able to use this much more granular understanding of what the immune system is doing at the cellular level in my patients. And hopefully we could target our therapies more directly to those cells or pathways that are contributing to disease.”Rachel Sparks Other clues could also be on the horizon. “At some point we’ll have IHM scores that can provide data on who will be most affected by a virus during a pandemic,” Tsang says. Maybe that will help researchers engineer an immune system response that shuts down the virus before it spreads. He says it’s possible to run a test like that now, but it remains experimental and will take years to fully develop, test for safety and accuracy, and establish standards and protocols for use as a tool of global public health. “These things take a long time,” he says.  The same goes for bringing IHM-style tests into the exam room, so doctors like Rachel Sparks can use the results to help treat their patients. “I think in 10 years, with some effort, we really could have something useful,” says Stanford’s Mark Davis. Sparks agrees. “I think by then I’ll be able to use this much more granular understanding of what the immune system is doing at the cellular level in my patients,” she says. “And hopefully we could target our therapies more directly to those cells or pathways that are contributing to disease.” Personally, I’ll wait for more details with a mix of impatience, curiosity, and at least a hint of concern. I wonder what more the immune circuitry deep inside me might reveal about whether I’m healthy at this very moment, or will be tomorrow, or next month, or years from now.  David Ewing Duncan is an award-winning science writer. For more information on this story check out his Futures Column on Substack.

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3 takeaways about climate tech right now

On Monday, we published our 2025 edition of Climate Tech Companies to Watch. This marks the third time we’ve put the list together, and it’s become one of my favorite projects to work on every year.  In the journalism world, it’s easy to get caught up in the latest news, whether it’s a fundraising round, research paper, or startup failure. Curating this list gives our team a chance to take a step back and consider the broader picture. What industries are making progress or lagging behind? Which countries or regions are seeing quick changes? Who’s likely to succeed?  This year is an especially interesting moment in the climate tech world, something we grappled with while choosing companies. Here are three of my takeaways from the process of building this list.  1. It’s hard to overstate China’s role in energy technology right now.  To put it bluntly, China’s progress on cleantech is wild. The country is dominating in installing wind and solar power and building EVs, and it’s also pumping government money into emerging technologies like fusion energy. 
We knew we wanted this list to reflect China’s emergence as a global energy superpower, and we ended up including two Chinese firms in key industries: renewables and batteries. In 2024, China accounted for the top four wind turbine makers worldwide. Envision was in the second spot, with 19.3 gigawatts of new capacity added last year. But the company isn’t limited to wind; it’s working to help power heavy industries like steel and chemicals with technology like green hydrogen. 
Batteries are also a hot industry in China, and we’re seeing progress in tech beyond the lithium-ion cells that currently dominate EVs and energy storage on the grid. We represent that industry with HiNa Battery Technology, a leading startup building sodium-ion batteries, which could be cheaper than today’s options. The company’s batteries are already being used in electric mopeds and grid installations.  2. Energy demand from data centers and AI is on everyone’s mind, especially in the US.  Another trend we noticed this year was a fixation on the growing energy demand of data centers, including massive planned dedicated facilities that power AI models. (Here’s another nudge to check out our Power Hungry series on AI and energy, in case you haven’t explored it already.)  Even if their technology has nothing to do with data centers, companies are trying to show how they can be valuable in this age of rising energy demand. Some are signing lucrative deals with tech giants that could provide the money needed to help bring their product to market.  Kairos Power hopes to be one such energy generator, building next-generation nuclear reactors. Last year, the company signed an agreement with Google that will see the company buy up to 500 megawatts of electricity from Kairos’s first reactors through 2035.  In a more direct play, Redwood Materials is stringing together used EV batteries to build microgrids that could power—you guessed it—data centers. The company’s first installation fired up this year, and while it’s small, it’s an interesting example of a new use for old technology.  3. Materials continue to be an area that’s ripe for innovation.  In a new essay that accompanies the list, Bill Gates lays out the key role of innovation in making progress on climate technology. One thing that jumped out at me while I was reading that piece was a number: 30% of global greenhouse-gas emissions come from manufacturing, including cement and steel production.  I’ve obviously covered materials and heavy industry for years. But it still strikes me just how much innovation we still need in the most important materials we use to scaffold our world.  Several companies on this year’s list focus on materials: We’ve once again represented cement, a material that accounts for 7% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Cemvision is working to use alternative fuel sources and starting materials to clean up the dirty industry.  And Cyclic Materials is trying to reclaim and recycle rare earth magnets, a crucial technology that underpins everything from speakers to EVs and wind turbines. Today, only about 0.2% of rare earths from recycled devices are recycled, but the company is building multiple facilities in North America in hopes of changing that.  Our list of 10 Climate Tech Companies to Watch highlights businesses we think have a shot at helping the world address and adapt to climate change with the help of everything from established energy technologies to novel materials. It’s a representation of this moment, and I hope you enjoy taking a spin through it.

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EIA Lifts 2025 and 2026 Brent Forecasts for 1st Time in 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised both its 2025 and 2026 average Brent crude oil spot price forecasts in a short term energy outlook (STEO) for the first time in 2025. In its latest STEO, which was released on October 7, the EIA projected that the Brent crude spot price will average $68.64 per barrel in 2025 and $52.16 per barrel in 2026. The EIA predicted in its October STEO that the Brent spot price will come in at $62.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $51.97 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $51.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52.00 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its September STEO, $67.22 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 in its August STEO, $68.89 per barrel in 2025 and $58.48 per barrel in 2026 in its July STEO, $65.97 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its June STEO, $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026 in its May STEO, $67.87 per barrel in 2025 and $61.48 per barrel in 2026 in its April STEO, $74.22 per barrel in 2025 and $68.47 per barrel in 2026 in its March STEO, $74.50 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its February STEO, and $74.31 per barrel in 2025 and $66.46 per barrel in 2026 in its January STEO. “Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $68 per barrel in September, unchanged from the average in August,” the EIA noted in its October STEO. “We forecast that growing global oil supply and

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