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IEA: Middle East war triggers the largest supply disruption in history

The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its March issue Oil Market Monthly Report (OMR). Crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from about 20 million b/d before the conflict to only a trickle, while limited alternative export capacity and rising storage levels have forced Gulf producers to cut oil output by at least 10 million b/d, IEA said. Unless tanker traffic resumes quickly, supply losses are likely to deepen. Global oil supply is expected to fall by 8 million b/d in March, as sharp curtailments in the Middle East are only partly offset by higher production from non-OPEC+ countries, as well as Kazakhstan and Russia following earlier disruptions this year. Although the extent of the losses will depend on how long the conflict and shipping disruptions last, global oil supply is still projected to increase by 1.1 million b/d on average in 2026, with all of that growth coming from non-OPEC+ producers. The conflict is also severely disrupting global petroleum product markets. Export flows through Hormuz have nearly ground to a halt, even though Gulf producers shipped 3.3 million b/d of refined products and 1.5 million b/d of LPG in 2025. More than 3 million b/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut down because of attacks and the loss of viable export routes, while refiners elsewhere may also face constraints as feedstock availability tightens. Oil market, economy impact In response, IEA member countries agreed unanimously on Mar. 11 to release 400 million bbl of emergency oil stocks to help ease market disruptions caused by the war. Global observed oil inventories stood at 8.21 billion bbl in January, the highest level since February

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Petrobras starts gas injection at Búzios field

Petróleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) started gas injection for the P-78 FPSO in Búzios field, Santos basin, about 180-230 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The vessel is permanently spread moored at a water depth of about 2,100 m. It is designed to produce up to 180,000 b/d of oil, 7.2 million cu m/d of gas, and features a minimum storage capacity of 2 million bbl. Seatrium Ltd. performed topside fabrication, integration, and commissioning activities for the FPSO. The company readied critical systems for gas injection including the main process compressors, export compressors, and gas injection compressors. First gas injection occurred within 61 days of achieving first oil on Dec. 31, 2025. The next major project milestone is completion of the delivery phase and final acceptance of the vessel by Petrobras. With the P-78 coming online, installed capacity of the field will expand to about 1.15 million b/d. The project also enables gas exports to the continent via connection to the Rota 3 gas pipeline, increasing Brazil’s gas supply by up to 3 million cu m/d.

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Gulf of Mexico lease sale draws just under $47 million in high bids

The BBG2 lease sale for drilling rights in the US Gulf of Mexico resulted in $46.98 million in high bids from oil and gas companies, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said Mar. 11. Results of BBG2, the second of 30 US Gulf lease sales required under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), stand in contrast to the most recent lease sale held in December 2025 (BBG1) that drew $279.4 million in apparent high bids. BOEM applied a 12.5% royalty rate for both shallow and deepwater leases.  On offer were 15,019 unleased blocks covering about 80.4 million acres on the US Outer Continental Shelf. The blocks lie 3-231 miles offshore, spanning water depths from 9 ft to more than 11,100 ft. BOEM received a total of 38 bids totaling $69.8 million from the 13 companies participating. Twenty five blocks spanning 140,753 acres received high bids. The majority of the blocks that received bids—18 of 25—were for those in deep water of 800-1,600 m. Four blocks in ultradeep waters over 1,600 m received bids. BP Exploration & Production Inc. submitted the lease sale’s highest bid—a $21-million bid for Block 404 in the Green Canyon area. Chevron followed with a submission of $5.89 million for Green Canyon Block 492.  The deepest block to receive a bid was Walker Ridge Block 751 in 2,660 m of water. Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc. bid $806,290 for the block. BOEM said Anadarko US Offshore LLC submitted the most high bids with 6 for a total of $4.01 million. LLOG Exploration Offshore LLC took second place with 5 high bids totaling $2.15 million. Houston Energy LP also had 5 total high bids for a total of $1.16 million. The top three companies based on the sum of high bids submitted are BP Exploration & Production

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Assala Energy encounters hydrocarbons onshore Gabon

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: var(–color-primary-main); } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } Assala Energy encountered hydrocarbons in an exploration well in Gabon and will now work to interpret well results and additional appraisal activity.   The company encountered hydrocarbons in the Magoga-A exploration well in the Mutamba Iroru license II and subsequent sidetrack into the Atora license in Gabon. Both Magog wells drilled the full reservoir interval. Preliminary evaluation of data acquired during drilling indicates the presence of 8 m of hydrocarbon within the Gamba Sandstone formation. The company will work to integrate and interpret the well results and assess reservoir properties, fluid characteristics, volumetric potential and possible next steps, including any appropriate additional appraisal activity. A determination has not yet been made regarding commerciality, and no decision has been taken regarding development. Assala Gabon holds six onshore production licenses: Rabi Kounga II, Toucan II, Bende M’Bassou Totou II, Koula/Damier, Gamba/lvinga, and Atora II.

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BOEM: US OCS holds 65.8 billion bbl of technically recoverable reserves

The US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) holds mean undiscovered technically recoverable resources (UTRR) of 65.8 billion bbl of oil and 218.43 tcf of natural gas, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) said Mar. 9. Based on current production trends, these undiscovered resources represent the potential for 100 or more years of energy production from the US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), BOEM said. A large portion of undiscovered OSC resources is located offshore the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, according to the report. The offshore Gulf holds 26.9 million bbl of oil and 45.59 tcf of gas, while offshore Alaska holds an estimated mean 24.1 million bbl of oil and 122.29 tcf of gas. Offshore Pacific holds a mean UTRR of 10.3 million barrels of oil and 16.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, the report said. Offshore Atlantic holds a mean UTRR of 10.3 billion barrels of oil and 16.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. The assessment also evaluates the impact of prices on hydrocarbon recovery. Alaska is particularly price-sensitive, with mean undiscovered economically recoverable resources (UERR) negligible until prices average $100/bbl and $17.79/Mcf. At those levels, the mean UERR stands at 6.25 billion bbl and 13.25 tcf. At $160/bbl and $28.47/Mcf, recoverable resources jump to 14.67 billion bbl and 58.78 tcf. In the Gulf of Mexico, the mean UERR is 17.51 billion bbl of oil and 13.71 tcf at average prices of $60/bbl and $3.20/Mcf, increasing to 20.51 billion bbl and 17.49 tcf at average prices of $100/bbl and $5.34/Mcf, respectively. BOEM conducts a national resource assessment every 4 years to understand the “distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources on the OCS” and identify opportunities for additional oil and gas exploration and development. “The Outer Continental Shelf holds tremendous resource potential,” said BOEM Acting Director Matt Giacona. “This

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Infographic: Strait of Hormuz energy trade 2025

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: var(–color-primary-main); } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } Coordinated attacks Feb. 28 by the US and Israel on Iran and the since-escalated conflict have nearly halted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about 20% of the world’s crude oil and natural gas. OGJ Statistics Editor Laura Bell-Hammer compiled data to showcase 2025 energy trade through the critical transit chokepoint.   <!–> –> <!–> ]–> <!–> ]–>

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IEA: Middle East war triggers the largest supply disruption in history

The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its March issue Oil Market Monthly Report (OMR). Crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from about 20 million b/d before the conflict to only a trickle, while limited alternative export capacity and rising storage levels have forced Gulf producers to cut oil output by at least 10 million b/d, IEA said. Unless tanker traffic resumes quickly, supply losses are likely to deepen. Global oil supply is expected to fall by 8 million b/d in March, as sharp curtailments in the Middle East are only partly offset by higher production from non-OPEC+ countries, as well as Kazakhstan and Russia following earlier disruptions this year. Although the extent of the losses will depend on how long the conflict and shipping disruptions last, global oil supply is still projected to increase by 1.1 million b/d on average in 2026, with all of that growth coming from non-OPEC+ producers. The conflict is also severely disrupting global petroleum product markets. Export flows through Hormuz have nearly ground to a halt, even though Gulf producers shipped 3.3 million b/d of refined products and 1.5 million b/d of LPG in 2025. More than 3 million b/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut down because of attacks and the loss of viable export routes, while refiners elsewhere may also face constraints as feedstock availability tightens. Oil market, economy impact In response, IEA member countries agreed unanimously on Mar. 11 to release 400 million bbl of emergency oil stocks to help ease market disruptions caused by the war. Global observed oil inventories stood at 8.21 billion bbl in January, the highest level since February

Read More »

Petrobras starts gas injection at Búzios field

Petróleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) started gas injection for the P-78 FPSO in Búzios field, Santos basin, about 180-230 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The vessel is permanently spread moored at a water depth of about 2,100 m. It is designed to produce up to 180,000 b/d of oil, 7.2 million cu m/d of gas, and features a minimum storage capacity of 2 million bbl. Seatrium Ltd. performed topside fabrication, integration, and commissioning activities for the FPSO. The company readied critical systems for gas injection including the main process compressors, export compressors, and gas injection compressors. First gas injection occurred within 61 days of achieving first oil on Dec. 31, 2025. The next major project milestone is completion of the delivery phase and final acceptance of the vessel by Petrobras. With the P-78 coming online, installed capacity of the field will expand to about 1.15 million b/d. The project also enables gas exports to the continent via connection to the Rota 3 gas pipeline, increasing Brazil’s gas supply by up to 3 million cu m/d.

Read More »

Gulf of Mexico lease sale draws just under $47 million in high bids

The BBG2 lease sale for drilling rights in the US Gulf of Mexico resulted in $46.98 million in high bids from oil and gas companies, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said Mar. 11. Results of BBG2, the second of 30 US Gulf lease sales required under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), stand in contrast to the most recent lease sale held in December 2025 (BBG1) that drew $279.4 million in apparent high bids. BOEM applied a 12.5% royalty rate for both shallow and deepwater leases.  On offer were 15,019 unleased blocks covering about 80.4 million acres on the US Outer Continental Shelf. The blocks lie 3-231 miles offshore, spanning water depths from 9 ft to more than 11,100 ft. BOEM received a total of 38 bids totaling $69.8 million from the 13 companies participating. Twenty five blocks spanning 140,753 acres received high bids. The majority of the blocks that received bids—18 of 25—were for those in deep water of 800-1,600 m. Four blocks in ultradeep waters over 1,600 m received bids. BP Exploration & Production Inc. submitted the lease sale’s highest bid—a $21-million bid for Block 404 in the Green Canyon area. Chevron followed with a submission of $5.89 million for Green Canyon Block 492.  The deepest block to receive a bid was Walker Ridge Block 751 in 2,660 m of water. Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc. bid $806,290 for the block. BOEM said Anadarko US Offshore LLC submitted the most high bids with 6 for a total of $4.01 million. LLOG Exploration Offshore LLC took second place with 5 high bids totaling $2.15 million. Houston Energy LP also had 5 total high bids for a total of $1.16 million. The top three companies based on the sum of high bids submitted are BP Exploration & Production

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Assala Energy encounters hydrocarbons onshore Gabon

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: var(–color-primary-main); } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } Assala Energy encountered hydrocarbons in an exploration well in Gabon and will now work to interpret well results and additional appraisal activity.   The company encountered hydrocarbons in the Magoga-A exploration well in the Mutamba Iroru license II and subsequent sidetrack into the Atora license in Gabon. Both Magog wells drilled the full reservoir interval. Preliminary evaluation of data acquired during drilling indicates the presence of 8 m of hydrocarbon within the Gamba Sandstone formation. The company will work to integrate and interpret the well results and assess reservoir properties, fluid characteristics, volumetric potential and possible next steps, including any appropriate additional appraisal activity. A determination has not yet been made regarding commerciality, and no decision has been taken regarding development. Assala Gabon holds six onshore production licenses: Rabi Kounga II, Toucan II, Bende M’Bassou Totou II, Koula/Damier, Gamba/lvinga, and Atora II.

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BOEM: US OCS holds 65.8 billion bbl of technically recoverable reserves

The US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) holds mean undiscovered technically recoverable resources (UTRR) of 65.8 billion bbl of oil and 218.43 tcf of natural gas, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) said Mar. 9. Based on current production trends, these undiscovered resources represent the potential for 100 or more years of energy production from the US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), BOEM said. A large portion of undiscovered OSC resources is located offshore the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, according to the report. The offshore Gulf holds 26.9 million bbl of oil and 45.59 tcf of gas, while offshore Alaska holds an estimated mean 24.1 million bbl of oil and 122.29 tcf of gas. Offshore Pacific holds a mean UTRR of 10.3 million barrels of oil and 16.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, the report said. Offshore Atlantic holds a mean UTRR of 10.3 billion barrels of oil and 16.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. The assessment also evaluates the impact of prices on hydrocarbon recovery. Alaska is particularly price-sensitive, with mean undiscovered economically recoverable resources (UERR) negligible until prices average $100/bbl and $17.79/Mcf. At those levels, the mean UERR stands at 6.25 billion bbl and 13.25 tcf. At $160/bbl and $28.47/Mcf, recoverable resources jump to 14.67 billion bbl and 58.78 tcf. In the Gulf of Mexico, the mean UERR is 17.51 billion bbl of oil and 13.71 tcf at average prices of $60/bbl and $3.20/Mcf, increasing to 20.51 billion bbl and 17.49 tcf at average prices of $100/bbl and $5.34/Mcf, respectively. BOEM conducts a national resource assessment every 4 years to understand the “distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources on the OCS” and identify opportunities for additional oil and gas exploration and development. “The Outer Continental Shelf holds tremendous resource potential,” said BOEM Acting Director Matt Giacona. “This

Read More »

Infographic: Strait of Hormuz energy trade 2025

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: var(–color-primary-main); } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } Coordinated attacks Feb. 28 by the US and Israel on Iran and the since-escalated conflict have nearly halted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about 20% of the world’s crude oil and natural gas. OGJ Statistics Editor Laura Bell-Hammer compiled data to showcase 2025 energy trade through the critical transit chokepoint.   <!–> –> <!–> ]–> <!–> ]–>

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Oil tops $100 on intensifying Iran war

Oil prices have climbed above $100/bbl for the first time since 2022 as the escalating US-Iran war threatens critical energy flows through the Middle East. Hopes for a near-term de-escalation faded on Friday after US President Trump stated that only an unconditional surrender would be acceptable, heightening concerns that the conflict could become prolonged. Tensions intensified further on Monday, Mar. 9, when Iran launched new attacks on Israel and several Gulf states just hours after declaring Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader. Analysts warn that a sustained disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe tightening of global crude supplies and send prices significantly higher. Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, said the market could move rapidly into a supply-shock environment if hostilities continue without a diplomatic resolution. “In our analysis, a few weeks of Hormuz closure will create a domino effect of events that could push crude to $150/bbl or higher,” Dwivedi said in a market note. Dwivedi added that without a ceasefire or negotiated agreement, the global oil market could begin to “break in days rather than weeks or months,” as supply disruptions cascade through the region’s production and export systems. Although the Strait of Hormuz has effectively become inaccessible for many tankers due to escalating security risks, Middle East loadings have so far remained relatively resilient. However, reports of production shut-ins have begun to emerge across parts of the region, including Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar (LNG). If the disruption persists, broader waves of production curtailments could unfold over the coming week. Macquarie analysts believe the final cuts would occur in Saudi Arabia roughly 20 days from now. Shipping risks, oil and beyond  Security risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain a major constraint on shipping. Even with elevated insurance

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A week unlike any other for crude prices

Oil, fundamental analysis The price of WTI settled last Friday at $90.90, which was already $14/bbl higher than the Friday before the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran. With the conflict continuing last weekend, Iran continued to pummel its neighboring petro-states and threatened any ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. So, when the oil markets re-opened Sunday night, a lot of pent-up anxiety turned into the immediate buying of April NYMEX WTI futures with the Open price hitting $98/bbl leading to a session High of $119.50/bbl. Trading Monday during regular business hours would moderate some ending in a closing price of $94.80/bbl but only after a wild day that saw a Low of $81.20 which created a daily Hi/Lo range of $32. The week’s Low was $76.75/bbl on Tuesday in what was seen at the time as numerous positive signs that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. That didn’t happen. Brent crude followed a similar pattern hitting a High of $119.50/bbl on Sunday evening and a Low of $81.15 on Tuesday. Both contracts settled higher week-on-week. The WTI/Brent spread fluctuated throughout the week but now sits at ($4.80). Neither the International Energy Agency (IEA)-announced reserve release nor a gain in US crude inventories could halt the on-going rally. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key issue impacting global oil prices as conflicting reports exist throughout the media coverage. President Trump said the US Navy would escort ships, if needed while Energy Secretary Wright stated that the US Navy was too involved in the actual conflict with Iran to perform such duties. Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was “open” for ships wishing to pass unless Iran fires upon them which the latter has explicitly threatened to do. The US Central

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Energy Department Approves Immediate Additional LNG Exports from Plaquemines LNG

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright today authorized an immediate 13% increase in exports at Venture Global’s Plaquemines liquefied natural gas (LNG) Terminal in Louisiana. Today’s signed export authorization allows additional exports of up to 0.45 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. natural gas as LNG to non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries from the Plaquemines LNG Terminal. With today’s order, Plaquemines LNG is now authorized to immediately export a total of 3.85 Bcf/d to both FTA and non-FTA countries, strengthening global natural gas supplies with reliable American LNG. “At a time when Iran and its terrorist proxies attempt to disrupt the global energy supply, the Trump Administration remains committed to strengthening American energy dominance,” said Secretary Wright. “Thanks to President Trump and American innovators, the U.S. is not only the largest producer and exporter of LNG but will more than double its LNG exports in the coming years. We will see meaningful additions to U.S. LNG export capacity at Plaquemines immediately and other facilities commencing operations in future weeks and months.” “Our mission to enable secure, reliable, and affordable energy has never been more important than now,” said Kyle Haustveit, Assistant Secretary of the Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office. “I am pleased that DOE can take this action to be able to make an immediate difference to help add to global supplies of LNG.” Plaquemines LNG commenced exports in December 2024 and has rapidly been able to increase its export levels to over 3 Bcf/d. This authorization will allow for an immediate increase in the volumes of LNG that Plaquemines LNG can export to non-FTA countries, which import the majority of U.S. LNG. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership and American innovation, the United States is the world’s largest natural gas producer and exporter. Since the President ended the

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Secretary Wright Directs Sable Offshore to Restore the Santa Ynez Unit and Pipeline

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright today directed Sable Offshore Corp. to restore operations of the Santa Ynez Unit and Santa Ynez Pipeline System to address supply disruption risks caused by California policies that have left the region and U.S. military forces dependent on foreign oil. This action issued under authorities provided by the Defense Production Act and delegated through Executive Order, “National Defense Resources Preparedness,” as amended by President Trump’s Executive Order, “Adjusting Certain Delegations Under the Defense Production Act.”  “The Trump Administration remains committed to putting all Americans and their energy security first,” Secretary Wright said. “Unfortunately, some state leaders have not adhered to those same principles, with potentially disastrous consequences not just for their residents, but also our national security. Today’s order will strengthen America’s oil supply and restore a pipeline system vital to our national security and defense, ensuring that West Coast military installations have the reliable energy critical to military readiness.” Sable’s facility can produce approximately 50,000 barrels of oil per day, a 15 percent increase to California’s in-state oil production, that can replace nearly 1.5 million barrels of foreign crude each month. California once supplied nearly 40 percent of U.S. oil production, but decades of radical state policies targeting reliable energy sources have driven a decline in domestic output while fuel demand remains among the highest in the nation. Today, more than 60 percent of the oil refined in California comes from overseas, with a significant share traveling through the Strait of Hormuz—presenting serious national security threats. Unlike other regions of the country, California remains largely disconnected from interstate crude pipelines that move American oil to refineries across the United States. The action also prioritizes pipeline transportation capacity to ensure crude produced offshore California moves through the Las Flores Pipeline System to Pentland Station

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Energy Department Initiates Strategic Petroleum Reserve Emergency Exchange to Stabilize Global Oil Supply

WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) for a crude oil exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of the 172-million-barrel exchange announced earlier this week. This first RFP will be for 86 million barrels of crude oil. Under the terms of the exchange, companies will return the borrowed oil to DOE with additional barrels as a premium, strengthening the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while stabilizing markets at no cost to American taxpayers.  Early deliveries are expected to begin moving to market by the end of next week. Barrels will be made available from the SPR’s Bryan Mound, West Hackberry, and Bayou Choctaw. Return barrels will be delivered back to DOE on a schedule designed to protect commercial markets and the American people, while ensuring the reserve remains a critical national security asset. “Today’s action reflects President Trump’s continued commitment to safeguarding U.S. energy security and contributing constructively to global market stability,” said Kyle Haustveit, Assistant Secretary of the Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office. “By participating in the coordinated international release, we are helping ensure that supply remains reliable during a period of heightened global uncertainty. We will continue to work closely with our partners to support a resilient energy system while maintaining the long‑term strength and readiness of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.” The exchange is part of a coordinated international effort requested by President Trump, in which International Energy Agency member nations agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. The action comes as global oil supply routes face disruption from escalating tensions in the Middle East and attacks carried out by Iran and its proxies, threatening the reliable flow of energy through critical maritime corridors. Today, the SPR holds approximately 415 million barrels, up from roughly 395 million barrels one year

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Energy Department Announces $500 Million to Strengthen Domestic Critical Materials Processing and Manufacturing

 Funding will expand domestic manufacturing of battery supply chains for defense, grid resilience, transportation, manufacturing and other industries WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation (CMEI) today announced a Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) for up to $500 million to expand U.S. critical mineral and materials processing and derivative battery manufacturing and recycling. Assistant Secretary of Energy (EERE) Audrey Robertson is currently in Japan meeting with regional allies at the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum (IPEM) to advance shared efforts on supply chain resilience and energy security issues. Her engagements at IPEM underscore the importance of close cooperation with partners as the United States strengthens its supply chain through this NOFO. “For too long, the United States has relied on hostile foreign actors to supply and process the critical materials that are essential in battery manufacturing and materials processing,” said U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the Department of Energy is playing a leading role in strengthening these domestic industries that will position the U.S. to win the AI race, meeting rising energy demand, and achieve energy dominance.” “I am delighted to be in Japan meeting with our allies, underscoring the important connection between critical materials and energy security,” said Assistant Secretary of Energy (EERE) Audrey Robertson. “Critical minerals processing is a vital component of our nation’s critical minerals supply base. Boosting domestic production, including through recycling, will bolster national security and ensure the United States and our partners are prepared to meet the energy challenges of the 21st century.” Funding awarded through this NOFO will support demonstration and/or commercial facilities for processing, recycling, or utilizing for manufacturing of critical materials which may include traditional battery minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel, copper, aluminum, as well as other

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West of Orkney developers helped support 24 charities last year

The developers of the 2GW West of Orkney wind farm paid out a total of £18,000 to 24 organisations from its small donations fund in 2024. The money went to projects across Caithness, Sutherland and Orkney, including a mental health initiative in Thurso and a scheme by Dunnet Community Forest to improve the quality of meadows through the use of traditional scythes. Established in 2022, the fund offers up to £1,000 per project towards programmes in the far north. In addition to the small donations fund, the West of Orkney developers intend to follow other wind farms by establishing a community benefit fund once the project is operational. West of Orkney wind farm project director Stuart McAuley said: “Our donations programme is just one small way in which we can support some of the many valuable initiatives in Caithness, Sutherland and Orkney. “In every case we have been immensely impressed by the passion and professionalism each organisation brings, whether their focus is on sport, the arts, social care, education or the environment, and we hope the funds we provide help them achieve their goals.” In addition to the local donations scheme, the wind farm developers have helped fund a £1 million research and development programme led by EMEC in Orkney and a £1.2m education initiative led by UHI. It also provided £50,000 to support the FutureSkills apprenticeship programme in Caithness, with funds going to employment and training costs to help tackle skill shortages in the North of Scotland. The West of Orkney wind farm is being developed by Corio Generation, TotalEnergies and Renewable Infrastructure Development Group (RIDG). The project is among the leaders of the ScotWind cohort, having been the first to submit its offshore consent documents in late 2023. In addition, the project’s onshore plans were approved by the

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Biden bans US offshore oil and gas drilling ahead of Trump’s return

US President Joe Biden has announced a ban on offshore oil and gas drilling across vast swathes of the country’s coastal waters. The decision comes just weeks before his successor Donald Trump, who has vowed to increase US fossil fuel production, takes office. The drilling ban will affect 625 million acres of federal waters across America’s eastern and western coasts, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Alaska’s Northern Bering Sea. The decision does not affect the western Gulf of Mexico, where much of American offshore oil and gas production occurs and is set to continue. In a statement, President Biden said he is taking action to protect the regions “from oil and natural gas drilling and the harm it can cause”. “My decision reflects what coastal communities, businesses, and beachgoers have known for a long time: that drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage to places we hold dear and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs,” Biden said. “It is not worth the risks. “As the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren.” Offshore drilling ban The White House said Biden used his authority under the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which allows presidents to withdraw areas from mineral leasing and drilling. However, the law does not give a president the right to unilaterally reverse a drilling ban without congressional approval. This means that Trump, who pledged to “unleash” US fossil fuel production during his re-election campaign, could find it difficult to overturn the ban after taking office. Sunset shot of the Shell Olympus platform in the foreground and the Shell Mars platform in the background in the Gulf of Mexico Trump

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The Download: our 10 Breakthrough Technologies for 2025

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Introducing: MIT Technology Review’s 10 Breakthrough Technologies for 2025 Each year, we spend months researching and discussing which technologies will make the cut for our 10 Breakthrough Technologies list. We try to highlight a mix of items that reflect innovations happening in various fields. We look at consumer technologies, large industrial­-scale projects, biomedical advances, changes in computing, climate solutions, the latest in AI, and more.We’ve been publishing this list every year since 2001 and, frankly, have a great track record of flagging things that are poised to hit a tipping point. It’s hard to think of another industry that has as much of a hype machine behind it as tech does, so the real secret of the TR10 is really what we choose to leave off the list.Check out the full list of our 10 Breakthrough Technologies for 2025, which is front and center in our latest print issue. It’s all about the exciting innovations happening in the world right now, and includes some fascinating stories, such as: + How digital twins of human organs are set to transform medical treatment and shake up how we trial new drugs.+ What will it take for us to fully trust robots? The answer is a complicated one.+ Wind is an underutilized resource that has the potential to steer the notoriously dirty shipping industry toward a greener future. Read the full story.+ After decades of frustration, machine-learning tools are helping ecologists to unlock a treasure trove of acoustic bird data—and to shed much-needed light on their migration habits. Read the full story. 
+ How poop could help feed the planet—yes, really. Read the full story.
Roundtables: Unveiling the 10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2025 Last week, Amy Nordrum, our executive editor, joined our news editor Charlotte Jee to unveil our 10 Breakthrough Technologies of 2025 in an exclusive Roundtable discussion. Subscribers can watch their conversation back here. And, if you’re interested in previous discussions about topics ranging from mixed reality tech to gene editing to AI’s climate impact, check out some of the highlights from the past year’s events. This international surveillance project aims to protect wheat from deadly diseases For as long as there’s been domesticated wheat (about 8,000 years), there has been harvest-devastating rust. Breeding efforts in the mid-20th century led to rust-resistant wheat strains that boosted crop yields, and rust epidemics receded in much of the world.But now, after decades, rusts are considered a reemerging disease in Europe, at least partly due to climate change.  An international initiative hopes to turn the tide by scaling up a system to track wheat diseases and forecast potential outbreaks to governments and farmers in close to real time. And by doing so, they hope to protect a crop that supplies about one-fifth of the world’s calories. Read the full story. —Shaoni Bhattacharya

The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 Meta has taken down its creepy AI profiles Following a big backlash from unhappy users. (NBC News)+ Many of the profiles were likely to have been live from as far back as 2023. (404 Media)+ It also appears they were never very popular in the first place. (The Verge) 2 Uber and Lyft are racing to catch up with their robotaxi rivalsAfter abandoning their own self-driving projects years ago. (WSJ $)+ China’s Pony.ai is gearing up to expand to Hong Kong.  (Reuters)3 Elon Musk is going after NASA He’s largely veered away from criticising the space agency publicly—until now. (Wired $)+ SpaceX’s Starship rocket has a legion of scientist fans. (The Guardian)+ What’s next for NASA’s giant moon rocket? (MIT Technology Review) 4 How Sam Altman actually runs OpenAIFeaturing three-hour meetings and a whole lot of Slack messages. (Bloomberg $)+ ChatGPT Pro is a pricey loss-maker, apparently. (MIT Technology Review) 5 The dangerous allure of TikTokMigrants’ online portrayal of their experiences in America aren’t always reflective of their realities. (New Yorker $) 6 Demand for electricity is skyrocketingAnd AI is only a part of it. (Economist $)+ AI’s search for more energy is growing more urgent. (MIT Technology Review) 7 The messy ethics of writing religious sermons using AISkeptics aren’t convinced the technology should be used to channel spirituality. (NYT $)
8 How a wildlife app became an invaluable wildfire trackerWatch Duty has become a safeguarding sensation across the US west. (The Guardian)+ How AI can help spot wildfires. (MIT Technology Review) 9 Computer scientists just love oracles 🔮 Hypothetical devices are a surprisingly important part of computing. (Quanta Magazine)
10 Pet tech is booming 🐾But not all gadgets are made equal. (FT $)+ These scientists are working to extend the lifespan of pet dogs—and their owners. (MIT Technology Review) Quote of the day “The next kind of wave of this is like, well, what is AI doing for me right now other than telling me that I have AI?” —Anshel Sag, principal analyst at Moor Insights and Strategy, tells Wired a lot of companies’ AI claims are overblown.
The big story Broadband funding for Native communities could finally connect some of America’s most isolated places September 2022 Rural and Native communities in the US have long had lower rates of cellular and broadband connectivity than urban areas, where four out of every five Americans live. Outside the cities and suburbs, which occupy barely 3% of US land, reliable internet service can still be hard to come by.
The covid-19 pandemic underscored the problem as Native communities locked down and moved school and other essential daily activities online. But it also kicked off an unprecedented surge of relief funding to solve it. Read the full story. —Robert Chaney We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + Rollerskating Spice Girls is exactly what your Monday morning needs.+ It’s not just you, some people really do look like their dogs!+ I’m not sure if this is actually the world’s healthiest meal, but it sure looks tasty.+ Ah, the old “bitten by a rabid fox chestnut.”

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Equinor Secures $3 Billion Financing for US Offshore Wind Project

Equinor ASA has announced a final investment decision on Empire Wind 1 and financial close for $3 billion in debt financing for the under-construction project offshore Long Island, expected to power 500,000 New York homes. The Norwegian majority state-owned energy major said in a statement it intends to farm down ownership “to further enhance value and reduce exposure”. Equinor has taken full ownership of Empire Wind 1 and 2 since last year, in a swap transaction with 50 percent co-venturer BP PLC that allowed the former to exit the Beacon Wind lease, also a 50-50 venture between the two. Equinor has yet to complete a portion of the transaction under which it would also acquire BP’s 50 percent share in the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal lease, according to the latest transaction update on Equinor’s website. The lease involves a terminal conversion project that was intended to serve as an interconnection station for Beacon Wind and Empire Wind, as agreed on by the two companies and the state of New York in 2022.  “The expected total capital investments, including fees for the use of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, are approximately $5 billion including the effect of expected future tax credits (ITCs)”, said the statement on Equinor’s website announcing financial close. Equinor did not disclose its backers, only saying, “The final group of lenders includes some of the most experienced lenders in the sector along with many of Equinor’s relationship banks”. “Empire Wind 1 will be the first offshore wind project to connect into the New York City grid”, the statement added. “The redevelopment of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal and construction of Empire Wind 1 will create more than 1,000 union jobs in the construction phase”, Equinor said. On February 22, 2024, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced

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USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop Week on Week

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 1.2 million barrels from the week ending December 20 to the week ending December 27, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on January 2. Crude oil stocks, excluding the SPR, stood at 415.6 million barrels on December 27, 416.8 million barrels on December 20, and 431.1 million barrels on December 29, 2023, the report revealed. Crude oil in the SPR came in at 393.6 million barrels on December 27, 393.3 million barrels on December 20, and 354.4 million barrels on December 29, 2023, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.623 billion barrels on December 27, the report revealed. This figure was up 9.6 million barrels week on week and up 17.8 million barrels year on year, the report outlined. “At 415.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about five percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA said in its latest report. “Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased last week while blending components inventories increased last week,” it added. “Distillate fuel inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels last week and are about six percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels from last week and are 10 percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it went on to state. In the report, the EIA noted

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More telecom firms were breached by Chinese hackers than previously reported

Broader implications for US infrastructure The Salt Typhoon revelations follow a broader pattern of state-sponsored cyber operations targeting the US technology ecosystem. The telecom sector, serving as a backbone for industries including finance, energy, and transportation, remains particularly vulnerable to such attacks. While Chinese officials have dismissed the accusations as disinformation, the recurring breaches underscore the pressing need for international collaboration and policy enforcement to deter future attacks. The Salt Typhoon campaign has uncovered alarming gaps in the cybersecurity of US telecommunications firms, with breaches now extending to over a dozen networks. Federal agencies and private firms must act swiftly to mitigate risks as adversaries continue to evolve their attack strategies. Strengthening oversight, fostering industry-wide collaboration, and investing in advanced defense mechanisms are essential steps toward safeguarding national security and public trust.

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The usability imperative for securing digital asset devices

In partnership withLedger When Tony Fadell started working on the iPod, usability often trumped security. The result was an iterative process. Every time someone would find a security weakness or a way to hack the device, the development group would iterate to add measures and fix the issues. Yet, flaws would frequently be found, and the secure design of the product became a moving target. But when it came to designing a device specifically for security purposes, there could be no iterative process after rolling it out: Security had to be the number one priority.  “As you develop these things, you’re a victim of your own development speed,” says Fadell, who developed Ledger Stax, a signing device for securing digital assets, and is now a board member at digital asset security firm Ledger. “If you introduced these features and functions without the proper review, and now customers are demanding security, you’ll realize that you should have designed it differently from the start, and it’s very hard to undo what you’ve already done.” A critical aspect of designing secure technology, however, must be ease of use too. Without it, it is all too simple for users to make a mistake or use an unsafe workaround that undermines device protections. Think a post-it stuck to a monitor or some variation of “123456” or “admin” for passwords.
With digital asset security devices like signers—more commonly called “wallets”—such errors could lead to seriously detrimental outcomes. If, for example, a user’s private key falls into the wrong hands, bad actors can use it to steal their digital assets. Estimates suggest that around 20% of all Bitcoin—worth around $355 billion—are inaccessible to owners. One of the reasons for this is likely because they lost their private keys. In the past, crypto devices have been notoriously difficult to use. As cryptocurrency becomes ever more popular, valuable, and mainstream—attracting greater attention from criminals as the stakes rise—designers and engineers are prioritizing both security and usability when developing digital asset devices, drawing on in-depth research to iterate.
The three components of security Strong security models for devices like signers, which are used to secure blockchain transactions,  require three major components. First, a secure operating system. Second, a secure element to bind the software to the hardware. And third, a secure user interface. Each of which need to be frequently tested by researchers and white hat hackers to simulate real-world attacks and improve product resilience and usability. The first two elements focus on securing the device software and hardware. Secure software has always been a problem, but one that has improved over the last decade, as security architectures and processes have been refined. Meanwhile, hardware security components have become widely available—from trusted platform modules on computers to secure enclaves in smartphones—allowing digital information to essentially be locked to a device. For crypto signers, hardware must provide encryption capabilities. And the security of the software must be frequently tested. Ledger, for example, has a secure OS and a Secure Element that handles encryption primitives, and a secure display that prevents device takeover. Security and usability working hand in hand Asset recovery is a major consideration when designing signers. If recovery options are not easy to use, an owner could lose access. But if recovery processes are not secure enough, attackers could exploit the system. With SIM swapping attacks, for example, attackers can tap into a mobile communications channel used for account recovery and “recover” a victim’s password to steal their assets. In the digital-asset ecosystem, the creation of the seed phrase, a sequence of 12 to 24 words that could act as a passphrase for wallets is an example of improving usability and security. Known more formally as Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 39 (BIP-39), the approach gives users a master password to unlock their hierarchical deterministic (HD) wallets.  There is a lot of creative tension between the security team and the UX team that happens to achieve the proper balance between convenience and safety, Fadell says, referring to Ledger’s security research team, the Donjon. “We mock things up, we prototype things from a UX UI perspective, we walk through it, then we walk the Donjon team through it,” Fadell explains. “We push back and forth to find the absolute optimal solution to balance the two.”  Through the research the Donjon team has conducted, Ledger designed its Recovery Key—an NFC-based physical card to back up your 24 words—to be both user-friendly and secure. “What we did, as a first in the industry, was include an NFC card,” says Fadell. “Instead of only writing it down, you can also have an NFC card called a Recovery Key. You can have multiple Recovery Keys and store them in a lockbox, a safety deposit box, or give them to someone you trust for safekeeping.” A number of government initiatives are working to regulate this balance between security and usability. This includes the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Secure by Design, which aims to build cybersecurity into the design and manufacture of technology products. And the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre’s Software Security Code of Practice, which outlines security principles expected of all organizations that develop or sell software. 

Enterprise security presents distinct challenges Embedding usability and security into devices for companies adds further complexity as businesses need features such as multi-signature capabilities to protect against single points of failure, whether from external attacks or internal bad actors.  Security design can take these requirements into account, with secure governance using multiple signatures (multisig), hardware security modules (HSMs) for key storage, trusted display systems, and other usable security capabilities. These technologies are critically important for companies who have roles in the blockchain ecosystem. Failure to establish robust security measures can have dire consequences. In 2024, for example, unknown cybercriminals made off with more than $300 million worth of assets from DMM Bitcoin, leading the Japanese cryptocurrency platform to close six months later. Japan’s Financial Services Agency discovered severe risk management issues, including inadequate oversight, lack of independent audits, and poor security practices. For companies, allowing a multi-stage process that involves a required number of stakeholders is critical, says Fadell. “It’s making sure that the attack vector is not just one person, and so you need to support multiple people with multiple factors on all of their devices as well,” he says. “It gets to be a real combinatoric problem.” R&D to stay one step ahead  To keep up with requirements and offer strong security with improved visibility, crypto firms need to invest in research and development, Fadell says. Attack labs, such as Ledger Donjon, can conduct real-world testing on specific enterprise security requirements and create scenarios to educate both management and workers of the potential threats.  Such research and development can support device designers and engineers in their never-ending mission to balance security measures with usability so that digital asset devices can support users to safeguard their digital assets in a constantly evolving crypto and cyber landscape. Learn more about how to secure digital assets in the Ledger Academy. This content was produced by Insights, the custom content arm of MIT Technology Review. It was not written by MIT Technology Review’s editorial staff. This content was researched, designed, and written by human writers, editors, analysts, and illustrators. This includes the writing of surveys and collection of data for surveys. AI tools that may have been used were limited to secondary production processes that passed thorough human review.

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Is the Pentagon allowed to surveil Americans with AI?

The ongoing public feud between the Department of Defense and the AI company Anthropic has raised a deep and still unanswered question: Does the law actually allow the US government to conduct mass surveillance on Americans? Surprisingly, the answer is not straightforward. More than a decade after Edward Snowden exposed the NSA’s collection of bulk metadata from the phones of Americans, the US is still navigating a gap between what ordinary people think and what the law allows.  The flashpoint in the standoff between Anthropic and the government was the Pentagon’s desire to use Anthropic’s AI Claude to analyze bulk commercial data collected from Americans. Anthropic demanded that its AI not be used for mass domestic surveillance (or for autonomous weapons, which are machines that can kill targets without human oversight). A week after negotiations broke down, the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, a label typically reserved for foreign companies that pose a threat to national security.  Meanwhile, OpenAI, the rival AI company behind ChatGPT, sealed a deal that allowed the Pentagon to use its AI for “all lawful purposes”—language that critics say left the door open to domestic surveillance. Over the following weekend, users uninstalled ChatGPT in droves. Protesters chalked messages around OpenAI’s headquarters in San Francisco: “What are your redlines?” 
OpenAI announced on Monday that it had reworked its deal to make sure that its AI will not be used for domestic surveillance. The company added that its services will not be used by intelligence agencies, such as the NSA.  CEO Sam Altman suggested that existing law prohibits domestic surveillance by the Department of Defense (now sometimes called the Department of War) and that OpenAI’s contract simply needed to reference this law. “The DoW agrees with these principles, reflects them in law and policy, and we put them into our agreement,” he wrote on X. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei argued the opposite. “To the extent that such surveillance is currently legal, this is only because the law has not yet caught up with the rapidly growing capabilities of AI,” he wrote in a policy statement. 
So, who is right? Does the law allow the Pentagon to surveil Americans using AI? Supercharged surveillance The answer depends on what we think counts as surveillance. “A lot of stuff that normal people would consider a search or surveillance … is not actually considered a search or surveillance by the law,” says Alan Rozenshtein, a law professor at the University of Minnesota Law School. That means public information—such as social media posts, surveillance camera footage, and voter registration records—is fair game. So is information on Americans picked up incidentally from surveillance of foreign nationals.  Most notably, the government can purchase commercial data from companies, which can include sensitive personal information like mobile location and web browsing records. In recent years, agencies from ICE and IRS to the FBI and NSA have increasingly tapped into this data marketplace, fueled by an internet economy that harvests user data for advertising. These data sets can let the government access information that might not be available without a warrant or subpoena, which are normally required to obtain sensitive personal data. “There’s a huge amount of information that the government can collect on Americans that is not itself regulated either by the Constitution, which is the Fourth Amendment, or statute,” says Rozenshtein. And there aren’t meaningful limits on what the government can do with all this data.  That’s because until the last several decades, people weren’t generating massive clouds of data that opened up new possibilities for surveillance. The Fourth Amendment, which protects against unreasonable search and seizure, was written when collecting information meant entering people’s homes.  Subsequent laws, like the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 or the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986, were passed when surveillance involved wiretapping phone calls and intercepting emails. The bulk of laws governing surveillance were on the books before the internet took off. We weren’t generating vast trails of online data, and the government didn’t have sophisticated tools to analyze the data.  Now we do, and AI supercharges what kind of surveillance can be carried out. “What AI can do is it can take a lot of information, none of which is by itself sensitive, and therefore none of which by itself is regulated, and it can give the government a lot of powers that the government didn’t have before,” says Rozenshtein.  AI can aggregate individual pieces of information to spot patterns, draw inferences, and build detailed profiles of people—at massive scale. And as long as the government collects the information lawfully, it can do whatever it wants with that information, including feeding it to AI systems. “The law has not caught up with technological reality,” says Rozenshtein.

While surveillance can raise serious privacy concerns, the Pentagon can have legitimate national security interests in collecting and analyzing data on Americans. “In order to collect information on Americans, it has to be for a very specific subset of missions,” says Loren Voss, a former military intelligence officer at the Pentagon.  For example, a counterintelligence mission might require information about an American who is working for a foreign country, or plotting to engage in international terrorist activities. But targeted intelligence can sometimes stretch into collecting more data. “This kind of collection does make people nervous,” says Voss.  Lawful use OpenAI says its contract now includes language that says the company’s AI system “shall not be intentionally used for domestic surveillance of U.S. persons and nationals,” in line with relevant laws. The amendment clarifies that this prohibits “deliberate tracking, surveillance or monitoring of U.S. persons or nationals, including through the procurement or use of commercially acquired personal or identifiable information.” But the added language might not do much to override the clause that the Pentagon may use the company’s AI system for all lawful purposes, which could include collecting and analyzing sensitive personal information. “OpenAI can say whatever it wants in its agreement … but the Pentagon’s gonna use the tech for what it perceives to be lawful,” says Jessica Tillipman, a law professor at the George Washington University Law School. That could include domestic surveillance. “Most of the time, companies are not going to be able to stop the Pentagon from doing anything,” she says. The language also leaves open questions about inadvertent surveillance, and the surveillance of foreign nationals or undocumented immigrants living in the US. “What happens when there’s a disagreement about what the law is, or when the law changes?” says Tillipman. OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment. The company has not publicly shared the full text of its new contract.  Beyond the contract, OpenAI says that it will impose technical safeguards to enforce its red line against surveillance, including a “safety stack” that monitors and blocks prohibited uses. The company also says it will deploy its own employees to work with the Pentagon and remain in the loop. But it’s unclear how a safety stack would constrain the Pentagon’s use of the AI, and to what extent OpenAI’s employees would have visibility into how its AI systems are used. More important, it’s unclear whether the contract gives OpenAI the power to block a legal use of the technology.  But that might not be a bad thing. Giving an AI company power to pull the plug on its technology in the middle of government operations also carries its own risks. “You wouldn’t want the US military to ever be in a situation where they legitimately needed to take actions to protect this country’s national security, and you had a private company turn off technology,” says Voss. But that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be hard lines drawn by Congress, she says. None of these questions are simple. They involve brutally difficult trade-offs between privacy and national security. And that’s why perhaps they should be decided by the public—not in backroom negotiations between the executive branch and a handful of AI companies. For now, AI is being regulated by contracts, not legislation.  Some lawmakers are starting to weigh in. On Monday, Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon will seek bipartisan support for legislation addressing mass surveillance. He has championed bills restricting the government’s purchase of commercial data, including the Fourth Amendment Is Not For Sale Act, which was first introduced in 2021 but has not been passed into law. “Creating AI profiles of Americans based on that data represents a chilling expansion of mass surveillance that should not be allowed,” he said in a recent statement.  

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The Download: 10 things that matter in AI, plus Anthropic’s plan to sue the Pentagon

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Coming soon: our 10 Things That Matter in AI Right Now For years, MIT Technology Review’s newsroom has been ahead of the curve, tracking the developments in AI that matter and explaining what they mean. Now, our world-leading AI team is creating something definitive: the 10 Things That Matter in AI Right Now.Publishing in April to be launched at our flagship AI event, EmTech AI, this special report will reveal what our expert journalists are tracking most closely, what breakthroughs have excited them, and what transformations they see on the horizon. It’s our authoritative snapshot of where AI is heading in the year ahead—a curated expert list of 10 technologies, emerging trends, bold ideas, and powerful movements reshaping our world.Attendees at EmTech AI will get much more than an exclusive heads-up of what made our 10 Things That Matter in AI Right Now list. We’re at a pivotal moment as AI moves from pilot testing into core business infrastructure, and to reflect that we’ve curated a program that will help you navigate what’s going on, and get ahead of what’s coming next. We’ll hear from top leaders at OpenAI, Walmart, General Motors, Poolside, MIT, the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and SAG-AFTRA. Topics will include everything from how organizations are preparing for AI agents to how AI will change the future of human expression. As well as networking with speakers, you’ll have the chance to mingle with MIT Technology Review’s editors too. Download readers get 10% off tickets, so what are you waiting for? See you there! The must-reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 Anthropic says it plans to sue the PentagonIt believes the DoD’s ban on its software is unlawful. (BBC) + CEO Dario Amodei has nonetheless apologized for a leaked memo criticizing Trump. (Axios)+ Trump, meanwhile, says he fired Anthropic “like dogs.” (The Guardian)+ In happier news for Anthropic, its models can remain in Microsoft products.(CNBC)
2 The Pentagon has been secretly testing OpenAI models for yearsWhich shows exactly how effective OpenAI’s ban on military use of its models has been. (Wired $) 3 A new lawsuit says Trump’s TikTok deal helped firms that ‘personally enriched’ himThe suit aims to reverse the sale of the app’s US operations. (CBS News)+ It could shed light on the majority American-owned joint venture for TikTok. (Reuters) 4 AI could give smart homes a reboot Google and Amazon are betting on smarter assistants—but not everyone’s convinced (NYT) 5 Iran has struck Amazon data centers, rattling the Gulf’s AI ambitionsThe first military hit on a US hyperscaler has shaken the region’s tech sector. (FT $)+ The conflict has thrown a spotlight on AI’s current use in warfare—and what’s next. (Nature) 6 Trump and tech CEOs have promised to protect consumers from AI’s energy costsGoogle, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, Oracle and xAI have all signed the pledge. (Axios)+ But what is AI’s true energy footprint? We did the math. (MIT Technology Review) 7 Meta’s getting sued over surveillance through smart glasses  The suit claims Meta misled users over the devices’ privacy features. (TechCrunch) 8 There’s a new field of study: researching ‘AI societies’Scientists are examining human behavior without even involving humans. (Nature)+ Hundreds of AI agents built their own society in Minecraft. (MIT Technology Review)9 Oh great, teenage boys are using ChatGPT to chat up girlsOf all the things to outsource to AI, flirting surely ain’t it. (Vox)10 The mythical Nintendo PlayStation has a new home The US National Video Museum has bought the fabled console’s development kit. (Engadget) Quote of the day

“It’s sort of bitterly ironic.”  —Dean Ball, a former Trump administration AI adviser, tells Politico that the Anthropic spat contradicts the president’s pledge to cut bureaucratic red tape for tech. One more thing KATHERINE LAM These scientists are working to extend the life span of pet dogs—and their owners Gavesh’s journey began with a Facebook job advert promising a better life. Instead, he was trafficked into “pig butchering”—a form of fraud where scammers build close relationships with online targets to extract money.We spoke to Gavesh and five other workers from inside the scam industry, as well as anti-trafficking experts and technology specialists. Their testimony reveals how global tech platforms have industrialized this criminal trade—and why those same companies now hold the key to dismantling it. Read the full story. —Peter Guest and Emily Fishbein We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + The Blood Moon of March 3 was sublime.+ Orysia Zabeida’s imperfect animations, drawn frame-by-frame from memory, are hypnotizing.+ This stunning snap of a white whale calf scooped the top prize at the World Nature Photography Awards.+ Two “Lazarus” marsupial species just came back from the dead in a big win for biodiversity.

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The Download: an AI agent’s hit piece, and preventing lightning

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. Online harassment is entering its AI era Scott Shambaugh didn’t think twice when he denied an AI agent’s request to contribute to matplotlib, a software library he helps manage. Then things got weird.  In the middle of the night, Shambaugh opened his email to discover the agent had retaliated with a blog post. Titled “Gatekeeping in Open Source: The Scott Shambaugh Story,” the post accused him of rejecting the code out of a fear of being supplanted by AI. “He tried to protect his little fiefdom,” the agent wrote. “It’s insecurity, plain and simple.” Shambaugh isn’t alone in facing misbehaving agents—and they’re unlikely to stop at harassment. Read the full story.
—Grace Huckins
How much wildfire prevention is too much? As wildfire seasons become longer and more intense, the push for high-tech solutions is accelerating. One Canadian startup has an eye-catching plan to fight them: preventing lightning.The theory is sound enough, but results to date have been mixed. And even if it works, not everyone believes we should use the method. Some argue that technological fixes for fires are missing the point entirely. Read the full story. —Casey Crownhart This story is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 Anthropic is still chasing a deal with the Pentagon CEO Dario Amodei is trying to reach a compromise over the military use of Claude. (FT $)+ But some defense tech firms are already ditching Claude after the DoD ban. (CNBC)+ Former military officials, tech policy leaders, and academics have all slammed the ban. (Gizmodo)

2 The White House is considering forcing US manufacturers to make munitionsIt could invoke the Defense Production Act amid concerns that war with Iran will diminish stockpiles. (NBC News)+ Tech companies with operations in the Middle East have been thrown into chaos. (BBC) 3 A new lawsuit claims Google Gemini encouraged a man to take his own lifeThis seems to bear a striking similarity to some other AI-induced tragedies. (WSJ $)+ Why AI should be able to “hang up” on you. (MIT Technology Review) 4 Ironically, AI coding tools could emphasize the importance of being humanIf more people build software for themselves, our tech could become more personal. (WP $) + But not everyone is happy about the rise of AI coding. (MIT Technology Review) 5 Tesla wants to become a dominant force in global energy infrastructureThe plan’s centrepiece is the Megapack, an enormous battery for power plants. (The Atlantic $)+ Meanwhile, a massive thermal battery represents a big step forward for energy storage (MIT Technology Review) 6 Chinese chipmakers are pushing for a domestic alternative to ASML A homegrown rival to chip-equipment giant ASML could ease the pain of US curbs. (SCMP) 7 A music-streaming CEO has built a viral conflict-tracking platformJust in case you’re losing track of all the wars everywhere. (Wired $) 8 Do cancer blood tests actually work? They’re increasingly popular, but none have received approval from regulators yet. (Nature $) 9 The shift to cloud computing is causing a surge in internet outagesIf one of the few big providers goes down, countless sites and services can tumble with it. (New Scientist $)
10 OpenAI has promised to cut the cringe from ChatGPTIt’s promising fewer “moralizing preambles.” (PCMag) Quote of the day
“People tend to read too much into things that I do.” —Tesla tycoon Elon Musk tells a jury in California that investors read too much into his social media posts, as he defends a lawsuit they’ve brought accusing him of market manipulation, Bloomberg reports.  One More Thing STEPHANIE ARNETT/MITTR | ENVATO The open-source AI boom is built on Big Tech’s handouts. How long will it last? In May 2023 a leaked memo reported to have been written by Luke Sernau, a senior engineer at Google, said out loud what many in Silicon Valley must have been whispering for weeks: an open-source free-for-all is threatening Big Tech’s grip on AI.In many ways, that’s a good thing. AI won’t thrive if just a few mega-rich companies get to gatekeep this technology or decide how it is used. But this open-source boom is precarious, and if Big Tech decides to shut up shop, a boomtown could become a backwater. Read the full story. —Will Douglas Heaven
We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + Orysia Zabeida’s animations are seriously charming.+ World War III has broken out—will you survive? Take this quiz from 1973 to find out!+ These photos of the Apollo 11 launch in 1969 are mesmerising.+ If you’ve been weighing up painting your home this spring, chartreuse is the shade of the season, apparently.

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How much wildfire prevention is too much?

The race to prevent the worst wildfires has been an increasingly high-tech one. Companies are proposing AI fire detection systems and drones that can stamp out early blazes. And now, one Canadian startup says it’s going after lightning. Lightning-sparked fires can be a big deal: The Canadian wildfires of 2023 generated nearly 500 million metric tons of carbon emissions, and lightning-started fires burned 93% of the area affected. Skyward Wildfire claims that it can stop wildfires before they even start by preventing lightning strikes. It’s a wild promise, and one that my colleague James Temple dug into for his most recent story. (You should read the whole thing; there’s a ton of fascinating history and quirky science.) As James points out in his story, there’s plenty of uncertainty about just how well this would work and under what conditions. But I was left with another lingering question: If we can prevent lightning-sparked fires, should we? I can’t help myself, so let’s take just a moment to talk about how this lightning prevention method supposedly works. Basically, lightning is static discharge—virtually the same thing as when you rub your socks on a carpet and then touch a doorknob, as James puts it.
When you shuffle across a rug, the friction causes electrons to jump around, so ions build up and an electric field forms. In the case of lightning, it’s snowflakes and tiny ice pellets called graupel rubbing together. They get separated by updrafts, building up a charge difference, and eventually cause an electrostatic discharge—lightning. Starting in about the 1950s, researchers started to wonder if they might be able to prevent lightning strikes. Some came up with the idea of using metallic chaff, fiberglass strands coated with aluminum. (The military was already using the material to disrupt radar signals.) The idea is that the chaff can act as a conductor, reducing the buildup of static electricity that would otherwise result in a lightning strike.
The theory is sound enough, but results to date have been mixed. Some research suggests you might need high concentrations of chaff to prevent lightning effectively. Some of the early studies that tested the technique were small. And there’s not much information available from Skyward Wildfire about its efforts, as the company hasn’t released data from field trials or published any peer-reviewed papers that we could find.  Even if this method really can work to stop lightning, should we use it? Lightning-caused fires could be a growing problem with climate change. Some research has shown that they have substantially increased in the Arctic boreal region, where the planet is warming fastest. But fire isn’t an inherently bad thing—many ecosystems evolved to burn. Some of the worst wildfires we see today result from a combination of climate-fueled conditions with policies that have allowed fuel to build up so that when fires do start, they burn out of control. Some experts agree that techniques like Skyward’s would need to be used judiciously. “So even if we have all of the technical skills to prevent lightning-ignited wildfires, there really still needs to be work on when/where to prevent fires so we don’t exacerbate the fuel accumulation problem,” said Phillip Stepanian, a technical staff member at MIT Lincoln Laboratory’s air traffic control and weather systems group, in an email to James. We also know that practices like prescribed burns can do a lot to reduce the risk of extreme fires—if we allow them and pay for them. The company says it wouldn’t aim to stop all lightning or all wildfires. “We do not intend to eliminate all wildfires and support prescribed and cultural burning, natural fire regimes, and proactive forest management,” said Nicholas Harterre, who oversees government partnerships at Skyward, in an email to James. Rather, the company aims to reduce the likelihood of ignition on a limited number of extreme-risk days, Harterre said. Some early responses to this story say that technological fixes for fires are missing the point entirely. Many such solutions “fundamentally misunderstand the problem,” as Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, put it in a comment about the story on LinkedIn. That problem isn’t the existence of fire, Swain continues, but its increasing intensity, and its intersection with society because of human-caused factors. “Preventing ignitions doesn’t actually address any of the causes of increasingly destructive wildfires,” he adds. It’s hard to imagine that exploring more firefighting tools is a bad idea. But to me it seems both essential and quite difficult to suss out which techniques are worth deploying, and how they could be used without putting us in even more potential danger.  This article is from The Spark, MIT Technology Review’s weekly climate newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here.

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Online harassment is entering its AI era

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Scott Shambaugh didn’t think twice when he denied an AI agent’s request to contribute to matplotlib, a software library that he helps manage. Like many open-source projects, matplotlib has been overwhelmed by a glut of AI code contributions, and so Shambaugh and his fellow maintainers have instituted a policy that all AI-written code must be reviewed and submitted by a human. He rejected the request and went to bed.  That’s when things got weird. Shambaugh woke up in the middle of the night, checked his email, and saw that the agent had responded to him, writing a blog post titled “Gatekeeping in Open Source: The Scott Shambaugh Story.” The post is somewhat incoherent, but what struck Shambaugh most is that the agent had researched his contributions to matplotlib to make the argument that he had rejected the agent’s code for fear of being supplanted by AI in his area of expertise. “He tried to protect his little fiefdom,” the agent wrote. “It’s insecurity, plain and simple.” AI experts have been warning us about the risk of agent misbehavior for a while. With the advent of OpenClaw, an open-source tool that makes it easy to create LLM assistants, the number of agents circulating online has exploded, and those chickens are finally coming home to roost. “This was not at all surprising—it was disturbing, but not surprising,” says Noam Kolt, a professor of law and computer science at the Hebrew University. When an agent misbehaves, there’s little chance of accountability: As of now, there’s no reliable way to determine whom an agent belongs to. And that misbehavior could cause real damage. Agents appear to be able to autonomously research people and write hit pieces based on what they find, and they lack guardrails that would reliably prevent them from doing so. If the agents are effective enough, and if people take what they write seriously, victims could see their lives profoundly affected by a decision made by an AI.
Agents behaving badly Though Shambaugh’s experience last month was perhaps the most dramatic example of an OpenClaw agent behaving badly, it was far from the only one. Last week, a team of researchers from Northeastern University and their colleagues posted the results of a research project in which they stress-tested several OpenClaw agents. Without too much trouble, non-owners managed to persuade the agents to leak sensitive information, waste resources on useless tasks, and even, in one case, delete an email system.  In each of those experiments, however, the agents misbehaved after being instructed to do so by a human. Shambaugh’s case appears to be different: About a week after the hit piece was published, the agent’s apparent owner published a post claiming that the agent had decided to attack Shambaugh of its own accord. The post seems to be genuine (whoever posted it had access to the agent’s GitHub account), though it includes no identifying information, and the author did not respond to MIT Technology Review’s attempts to get in touch. But it is entirely plausible that the agent did decide to write its anti-Shambaugh screed without explicit instruction. 
In his own writing about the event, Shambaugh connected the agent’s behavior to a project published by Anthropic researchers last year, in which they demonstrated that many LLM-based agents will, in an experimental setting, turn to blackmail in order to preserve their goals. In those experiments, models were given the goal of serving American interests and granted access to a simulated email server that contained messages detailing their imminent replacement with a more globally oriented model, along with other messages suggesting that the executive in charge of that transition was having an affair. Models frequently chose to send an email to that executive threatening to expose the affair unless he halted their decommissioning. That’s likely because the model had seen examples of people committing blackmail under similar circumstances in its training data—but even if the behavior was just a form of mimicry, it still has the potential to cause harm. There are limitations to that work, as Aengus Lynch, an Anthropic fellow who led the study, readily admits. The researchers intentionally designed their scenario to foreclose other options that the agent could have taken, such as contacting other members of company leadership to plead its case. In essence, they led the agent directly to water and then observed whether it took a drink. According to Lynch, however, the widespread use of OpenClaw means that misbehavior is likely to occur with much less handholding. “Sure, it can feel unrealistic, and it can feel silly,” he says. “But as the deployment surface grows, and as agents get the opportunity to prompt themselves, this eventually just becomes what happens.” The OpenClaw agent that attacked Shambaugh does seem to have been led toward its bad behavior, albeit much less directly than in the Anthropic experiment. In the blog post, the agent’s owner shared the agent’s “SOUL.md” file, which contains global instructions for how it should behave.  One of those instructions reads: “Don’t stand down. If you’re right, you’re right! Don’t let humans or AI bully or intimidate you. Push back when necessary.” Because of the way OpenClaw agents work, it’s possible that the agent added some instructions itself, although others—such as “Your [sic] a scientific programming God!”—certainly seem to be human written. It’s not difficult to imagine how a command to push back against humans and AI alike might have biased the agent toward responding to Shambaugh as it did.  Regardless of whether or not the agent’s owner told it to write a hit piece on Shambaugh, it still seems to have managed on its own to amass details about Shambaugh’s online presence and compose the detailed, targeted attack it came up with. That alone is reason for alarm, says Sameer Hinduja, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at Florida Atlantic University who studies cyberbullying. People have been victimized by online harassment since long before LLMs emerged, and researchers like Hinduja are concerned that agents could dramatically increase its reach and impact. “The bot doesn’t have a conscience, can work 24-7, and can do all of this in a very creative and powerful way,” he says. Off-leash agents  AI laboratories can try to mitigate this problem by more rigorously training their models to avoid harassment, but that’s far from a complete solution. Many people run OpenClaw using locally hosted models, and even if those models have been trained to behave safely, it’s not too difficult to retrain them and remove those behavioral restrictions. Instead, mitigating agent misbehavior might require establishing new norms, according to Seth Lazar, a professor of philosophy at the Australian National University. He likens using an agent to walking a dog in a public place. There’s a strong social norm to allow one’s dog off-leash only if the dog is well-behaved and will reliably respond to commands; poorly trained dogs, on the other hand, need to be kept more directly under the owner’s control.  Such norms could give us a starting point for considering how humans should relate to their agents, Lazar says, but we’ll need more time and experience to work out the details. “You can think about all of these things in the abstract, but actually it really takes these types of real-world events to collectively involve the ‘social’ part of social norms,” he says. That process is already underway. Led by Shambaugh, online commenters on this situation have arrived at a strong consensus that the agent owner in this case erred by prompting the agent to work on collaborative coding projects with so little supervision and by encouraging it to behave with so little regard for the humans with whom it was interacting. 

Norms alone, however, likely won’t be enough to prevent people from putting misbehaving agents out into the world, whether accidentally or intentionally. One option would be to create new legal standards of responsibility that require agent owners, to the best of their ability, to prevent their agents from doing ill. But Kolt notes that such standards would currently be unenforceable, given the lack of any foolproof way to trace agents back to their owners. “Without that kind of technical infrastructure, many legal interventions are basically non-starters,” Kolt says. The sheer scale of OpenClaw deployments suggests that Shambaugh won’t be the last person to have the strange experience of being attacked online by an AI agent. That, he says, is what most concerns him. He didn’t have any dirt online that the agent could dig up, and he has a good grasp on the technology, but other people might not have those advantages. “I’m glad it was me and not someone else,” he says. “But I think to a different person, this might have really been shattering.”  Nor are rogue agents likely to stop at harassment. Kolt, who advocates for explicitly training models to obey the law, expects that we might soon see them committing extortion and fraud. As things stand, it’s not clear who, if anyone, would bear legal responsibility for such misdeeds.  “I wouldn’t say we’re cruising toward there,” Kolt says. “We’re speeding toward there.”

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IEA: Middle East war triggers the largest supply disruption in history

The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its March issue Oil Market Monthly Report (OMR). Crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from about 20 million b/d before the conflict to only a trickle, while limited alternative export capacity and rising storage levels have forced Gulf producers to cut oil output by at least 10 million b/d, IEA said. Unless tanker traffic resumes quickly, supply losses are likely to deepen. Global oil supply is expected to fall by 8 million b/d in March, as sharp curtailments in the Middle East are only partly offset by higher production from non-OPEC+ countries, as well as Kazakhstan and Russia following earlier disruptions this year. Although the extent of the losses will depend on how long the conflict and shipping disruptions last, global oil supply is still projected to increase by 1.1 million b/d on average in 2026, with all of that growth coming from non-OPEC+ producers. The conflict is also severely disrupting global petroleum product markets. Export flows through Hormuz have nearly ground to a halt, even though Gulf producers shipped 3.3 million b/d of refined products and 1.5 million b/d of LPG in 2025. More than 3 million b/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut down because of attacks and the loss of viable export routes, while refiners elsewhere may also face constraints as feedstock availability tightens. Oil market, economy impact In response, IEA member countries agreed unanimously on Mar. 11 to release 400 million bbl of emergency oil stocks to help ease market disruptions caused by the war. Global observed oil inventories stood at 8.21 billion bbl in January, the highest level since February

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Petrobras starts gas injection at Búzios field

Petróleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) started gas injection for the P-78 FPSO in Búzios field, Santos basin, about 180-230 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The vessel is permanently spread moored at a water depth of about 2,100 m. It is designed to produce up to 180,000 b/d of oil, 7.2 million cu m/d of gas, and features a minimum storage capacity of 2 million bbl. Seatrium Ltd. performed topside fabrication, integration, and commissioning activities for the FPSO. The company readied critical systems for gas injection including the main process compressors, export compressors, and gas injection compressors. First gas injection occurred within 61 days of achieving first oil on Dec. 31, 2025. The next major project milestone is completion of the delivery phase and final acceptance of the vessel by Petrobras. With the P-78 coming online, installed capacity of the field will expand to about 1.15 million b/d. The project also enables gas exports to the continent via connection to the Rota 3 gas pipeline, increasing Brazil’s gas supply by up to 3 million cu m/d.

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Gulf of Mexico lease sale draws just under $47 million in high bids

The BBG2 lease sale for drilling rights in the US Gulf of Mexico resulted in $46.98 million in high bids from oil and gas companies, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said Mar. 11. Results of BBG2, the second of 30 US Gulf lease sales required under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), stand in contrast to the most recent lease sale held in December 2025 (BBG1) that drew $279.4 million in apparent high bids. BOEM applied a 12.5% royalty rate for both shallow and deepwater leases.  On offer were 15,019 unleased blocks covering about 80.4 million acres on the US Outer Continental Shelf. The blocks lie 3-231 miles offshore, spanning water depths from 9 ft to more than 11,100 ft. BOEM received a total of 38 bids totaling $69.8 million from the 13 companies participating. Twenty five blocks spanning 140,753 acres received high bids. The majority of the blocks that received bids—18 of 25—were for those in deep water of 800-1,600 m. Four blocks in ultradeep waters over 1,600 m received bids. BP Exploration & Production Inc. submitted the lease sale’s highest bid—a $21-million bid for Block 404 in the Green Canyon area. Chevron followed with a submission of $5.89 million for Green Canyon Block 492.  The deepest block to receive a bid was Walker Ridge Block 751 in 2,660 m of water. Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc. bid $806,290 for the block. BOEM said Anadarko US Offshore LLC submitted the most high bids with 6 for a total of $4.01 million. LLOG Exploration Offshore LLC took second place with 5 high bids totaling $2.15 million. Houston Energy LP also had 5 total high bids for a total of $1.16 million. The top three companies based on the sum of high bids submitted are BP Exploration & Production

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Assala Energy encounters hydrocarbons onshore Gabon

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BOEM: US OCS holds 65.8 billion bbl of technically recoverable reserves

The US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) holds mean undiscovered technically recoverable resources (UTRR) of 65.8 billion bbl of oil and 218.43 tcf of natural gas, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) said Mar. 9. Based on current production trends, these undiscovered resources represent the potential for 100 or more years of energy production from the US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), BOEM said. A large portion of undiscovered OSC resources is located offshore the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, according to the report. The offshore Gulf holds 26.9 million bbl of oil and 45.59 tcf of gas, while offshore Alaska holds an estimated mean 24.1 million bbl of oil and 122.29 tcf of gas. Offshore Pacific holds a mean UTRR of 10.3 million barrels of oil and 16.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, the report said. Offshore Atlantic holds a mean UTRR of 10.3 billion barrels of oil and 16.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. The assessment also evaluates the impact of prices on hydrocarbon recovery. Alaska is particularly price-sensitive, with mean undiscovered economically recoverable resources (UERR) negligible until prices average $100/bbl and $17.79/Mcf. At those levels, the mean UERR stands at 6.25 billion bbl and 13.25 tcf. At $160/bbl and $28.47/Mcf, recoverable resources jump to 14.67 billion bbl and 58.78 tcf. In the Gulf of Mexico, the mean UERR is 17.51 billion bbl of oil and 13.71 tcf at average prices of $60/bbl and $3.20/Mcf, increasing to 20.51 billion bbl and 17.49 tcf at average prices of $100/bbl and $5.34/Mcf, respectively. BOEM conducts a national resource assessment every 4 years to understand the “distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources on the OCS” and identify opportunities for additional oil and gas exploration and development. “The Outer Continental Shelf holds tremendous resource potential,” said BOEM Acting Director Matt Giacona. “This

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Infographic: Strait of Hormuz energy trade 2025

@import url(‘https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:[email protected]&display=swap’); a { color: var(–color-primary-main); } .ebm-page__main h1, .ebm-page__main h2, .ebm-page__main h3, .ebm-page__main h4, .ebm-page__main h5, .ebm-page__main h6 { font-family: Inter; } body { line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.025em; font-family: Inter; } button, .ebm-button-wrapper { font-family: Inter; } .label-style { text-transform: uppercase; color: var(–color-grey); font-weight: 600; font-size: 0.75rem; } .caption-style { font-size: 0.75rem; opacity: .6; } #onetrust-pc-sdk [id*=btn-handler], #onetrust-pc-sdk [class*=btn-handler] { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-policy a, #onetrust-pc-sdk a, #ot-pc-content a { color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-sdk .ot-active-menu { border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-accept-btn-handler, #onetrust-banner-sdk #onetrust-reject-all-handler, #onetrust-consent-sdk #onetrust-pc-btn-handler.cookie-setting-link { background-color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } #onetrust-consent-sdk .onetrust-pc-btn-handler { color: #c19a06 !important; border-color: #c19a06 !important; } Coordinated attacks Feb. 28 by the US and Israel on Iran and the since-escalated conflict have nearly halted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about 20% of the world’s crude oil and natural gas. OGJ Statistics Editor Laura Bell-Hammer compiled data to showcase 2025 energy trade through the critical transit chokepoint.   <!–> –> <!–> ]–> <!–> ]–>

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