
North American natural gas
Morningstar DBRS kept its 2027 NYMEX natural gas price forecast at $3.50/Mcf. Growing LNG exports and electricity demand are expected to support prices, while rising production and relatively ample storage should limit sustained increases.
EIA expects US dry gas production to reach about 116 bcfd in 2027 and LNG exports to rise to about 19 bcfd. US LNG export capacity is nearly fully utilized, limiting how much additional gas producers can send overseas when European or Asian LNG prices rise.
In Western Canada, production growth from the Montney, Duvernay, and other liquids-rich formations is expected to outpace additional LNG demand in 2027. LNG Canada has added a source of demand, and the expected startup of Woodfibre LNG during 2027 should provide further price support.
Canadian crude
Canadian crude oil production is expected to rise modestly in 2027, particularly at oil sands projects where producers can add volumes through optimization and brownfield expansions. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project has improved access to Pacific markets. Morningstar expects a $14/bbl differential between WTI and Western Canadian Select (WCS) in 2027.
Morningstar expects the credit profiles of most rated North American oil and gas producers to remain broadly stable under its 2027 price assumptions. For oil-weighted producers, $68/bbl WTI should generally provide enough cash flow to fund maintenance capital spending, support moderate production growth, and maintain shareholder distributions. Lower oil prices than in 2026 are expected to reduce excess free cash flow.





















