North America’s oil supply outlook is entering a new phase, according to Enverus’ latest long-term analysis. In this Insights episode of the Oil & Gas Journal ReEnterprised podcast, Mikaila Adams, content strategist and managing editor, speaks with Dane Gregoris, managing director at Enverus, and discusses the firm’s conclusion that US shale is “aging, not broken.” While the United States is expected to remain the continent’s dominant producer, Enverus sees growth slowing markedly compared with the past two decades as operators work through increasingly mature inventories and confront geological constraints that are becoming harder to offset through efficiency gains alone. The conversation examines the data behind that assessment, including declining productivity per lateral foot, changing inventory quality, and the methodology Enverus uses to estimate remaining drilling locations across North America’s major basins. Gregoris explains why the firm expects US production to remain relatively stable over the next decade rather than continue the rapid expansion that defined the shale revolution, and why rising marginal supply costs could become an increasingly important market signal. A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the Permian basin, which Enverus still views as the cornerstone of North American oil supply well into the 2040s. At the same time, the report suggests that even the Permian is experiencing the effects of resource maturation. Gregoris discusses evidence that operators are moving down the quality curve and shares his perspective on emerging technologies, including ultra-long laterals, lightweight proppants, and advanced surfactants, that could improve recoveries and alter the industry’s long-term outlook. The report’s second major theme is the growing strategic importance of Canada. As US shale growth moderates, Enverus sees Canada’s oil sands and liquids-rich plays as increasingly important sources of future supply. Gregoris explains why Canada’s resource base offers substantially longer inventory duration than most US plays and

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright issued an emergency order to mitigate blackout risks in the mid-Atlantic ahead of a period of elevated demand, a high rate of planned generator outages during the autumn maintenance season, and numerous planned transmission outages. The order directs PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. (PJM) to dispatch specified units and to order their operation as needed to maintain reliability and authorizes PJM to direct backup generation resources to operate as a last resort before declaring an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) 3 or during an EEA 3.  PJM is authorized to call upon its Transmission Owners and Electric Distribution Companies to implement the order as needed. The order was issued pursuant to an application from PJM submitted on October 11, 2026.  “This order will help ensure millions of American families and businesses across the mid-Atlantic have access to affordable, reliable, and secure electricity by making additional power generation, including backup power, available to use as needed,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. “While past leaders’ energy subtraction policies have made the grid more vulnerable to the risk of blackouts when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow, this administration remains committed to using every available tool to prevent blackouts.”  DOE estimates more than 35 GW of unused backup generation remains available nationwide.  The order is effective October 13, 2026, through October 16, 2026. 

Escalating security risks in the Middle East are keeping oil markets on edge, with renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia and commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over regional crude exports. The developments have overshadowed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of additional Russian diesel supplies and a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Oil prices rose more than 2% on Oct. 12, with Brent climbing to $107/bbl and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $93.7/bbl. Both benchmarks hit their highest levels since Sept. 29, reversing earlier losses. The gains followed renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia and commercial shipping in the Gulf region. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh’s international airport, while additional attacks were reported Sunday. Separately, a tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar, Oman, and another vessel was damaged while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO). The incidents have renewed concerns over further disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the recovery in Middle East crude exports recorded in September. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent price forecast to $90/bbl from $85/bbl, citing an estimated geopolitical risk premium of slightly more than $20/bbl. “We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of Mideast supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk,” Goldman Sachs said in a note Oct. 11. Russian diesel deal, energy ceasefire Trump announced on Oct. 9 an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase diesel supplies to the US and international markets. Trump said Russia would initially supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes thereafter. The US Treasury Department also authorized certain Russian diesel transactions under a

WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced the authorization of an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to address supply disruptions due to inclement weather in the Gulf of America. Under the terms of the exchanges, participating companies will return the borrowed crude oil with additional premium barrels in 2027, helping replenish and strengthen the SPR at no additional cost to taxpayers.  “With this emergency exchange, the Energy Department is acting swiftly to help maintain refinery operations, limit disruptions to fuel supplies, and ensure American families and businesses continue to have access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. “In addition to helping minimize supply disruptions, these emergency exchanges will also require Exxon and BP to return more barrels to the Reserve than are currently being withdrawn, saving taxpayers millions of dollars. Rest assured, the Trump Administration is committed to strengthening America’s energy security at every opportunity.” The Department has authorized exchanges of up to 2 million barrels each for ExxonMobil and BP America. ExxonMobil’s exchange will accelerate deliveries of previously awarded SPR crude oil to address immediate supply needs.  DOE will continue working with industry partners to support reliable fuel supplies and respond to hurricane-related disruptions.  For more information about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, visit energy.gov.

WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced its support for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) guidance that would help ensure lower electricity costs for American families and businesses across the PJM Interconnection LLC’s (PJM) region spanning across the mid-Atlantic. DOE filed a Notice of Intervention and Statement of Position with FERC supporting its recommendation for PJM’s proposed Reliability Backstop Procurement. FERC recommends PJM submit revised tariff provisions to implement appropriate cost allocation and other reforms. FERC’s recommendations are consistent with President Trump’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge, ensuring large electricity users pay for the generation and infrastructure needed to serve them.  This action follows the Trump Administration’s call in January 2026 for PJM to adopt market rules to strengthen grid reliability and reduce electricity costs. Specifically, the Administration asked PJM to hold an emergency power auction and to accelerate the development of reliable power generation. The Trump administration was joined by governors from all 13 states who participate in the PJM grid. “The Trump Administration remains committed to doing everything it can to lower electricity costs, grow the supply of American energy and strengthen grid reliability,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. “That’s why President Trump created the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, and the Energy Department supports having large electricity users pay for reliable new power generation.” “In January, the Trump Administration recognized early warning signs of capacity shortfalls in PJM and joined the Governors of all 13 PJM states in issuing a Statement of Principles to PJM, calling for PJM to adopt market rules to strengthen grid reliability and reduce electricity costs for American families and businesses,” said U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy James P. Danly. “By increasing transparency and preventing unjust cost shifts onto existing customers, the proposed reforms advance President Trump’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge while ensuring Americans continue

Shell plc and Equinor ASA have signed an agreement under which Shell will acquire a 30% interest in the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada. Equinor will retain a 70% interest and remain as the operator of the project. The transaction supports the continued maturation of Bay du Nord towards an investment decision currently targeted for early 2027, Equinor said. Bay du Nord is in Flemish Pass basin, about 500 km offshore Newfoundland and Labrador in 600–1,170 m of water. The development concept is based on a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel (FPSO). Bay du Nord and Cambriol discoveries are included in the initial phase, with potential future subsea tiebacks to Cappahayden, Harpoon, and Baccalieu. Estimated recoverable resources in the initial phase are more than 400 MMbbl of oil. First oil is anticipated in 2031, Equinor said. The project is currently finalizing front-end engineering and design (FEED), with continued work focused on strengthening capital efficiency, execution planning, and overall project robustness. Engagement with provincial and federal governments has supported progress through key milestones, according to the company. Equinor and Shell said they will continue to mature the project towards an investment decision subject to market conditions, regulatory approvals, and the companies’ internal decision processes. The project will require a toal investment of about $14 billion (Can.; US$12.6 billion), Equinor said.