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S&P Global: Middle East crude flows to stay below prewar levels through 2027

Crude markets are settling into a prolonged period in which supply disruption is a standing condition rather than a series of discrete shocks, according to a new analysis from S&P Global Energy. For the first time since the US-Iran war began, the firm no longer expects Middle Eastern crude production to recover to prewar levels […]

Crude markets are settling into a prolonged period in which supply disruption is a standing condition rather than a series of discrete shocks, according to a new analysis from S&P Global Energy.

For the first time since the US-Iran war began, the firm no longer expects Middle Eastern crude production to recover to prewar levels by yearend 2027. The outlook assumes no definitive end to the conflict, no normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and no removal of Red Sea disruption risk from Iran’s Houthi allies over that period.

Middle Eastern crude and condensate exports are now forecast to average roughly 10-16 million b/d on a monthly basis through 2027, compared with about 20 million b/d in January-February 2026, immediately before the war.

Regional crude and condensate production is expected to average 21 million b/d over the same period, 4.2 million b/d below S&P Global’s previous projection. Production capacity has not been permanently lost, but security and logistical constraints are limiting how much oil can reach the market, S&P Global said.

Gulf producers have strong incentives to find ways to move more oil to market and can be expected to adapt around political and security constraints where possible, said Jim Burkhard, vice-president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy.

The market, however, “is not returning to calm,” Burkhard said. Instead, it is adjusting to conditions defined by unresolved conflict and persistent maritime risk, with oil flows remaining below prewar levels and an uneven path toward recovery.

Price outlook

S&P Global now expects crude oil prices broadly in an $80-100/bbl range through 2027. Dated Brent is expected to average around $90/bbl or higher for the balance of 2026 and $86/bbl in 2027, $5/bbl above the firm’s previous forecast. Brent recently traded above $100/bbl for the first time since July.

The near-term outlook is broadly in line with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook, which also forecasts Brent at around $90/bbl in second-half 2026.

The two outlooks diverge more sharply in 2027. EIA expects Brent to average $74/bbl for the year and fall to about $67/bbl in second-half 2027, compared with S&P Global’s $86/bbl annual forecast.

The $12/bbl difference largely reflects assumptions about the pace of recovery in Middle Eastern supply. EIA expects Middle East crude oil production will likely return to near pre-conflict averages by second-quarter 2027, while S&P Global does not expect regional crude production to return to prewar levels by yearend 2027.

The Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict have reduced refinery output through direct damage to infrastructure and difficulties moving petroleum products to market. China also has reduced seaborne crude purchases and refinery runs. Together, those factors have lowered crude demand and tempered price gains.

S&P Global expects global crude demand to average 80.2 million b/d in fourth-quarter 2026, down 4.7 million b/d from a year earlier.

Crude demand is constrained not because consumers have disappeared but because refiners have limited ability to process additional barrels. Lower Middle Eastern production is supporting prices, while refining constraints and relatively low Chinese crude imports are limiting crude demand, leaving the market caught between constrained supply and limited available refining capacity, Burkhard said.

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Nvidia will use Palantir to gain insight its supply chain

Nvidia will use Palantir’s Foundry software to analyze its global network of suppliers and partners for supply chain risks — and Palantir will incorporate Nvida’s Nemotron open AI model into its existing AI software stack. The deal will enhance both companies’ offerings, they said: Nvidia will use Palantir’s AI stack

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ZPC to expand Zhoushan complex with new PDH unit

Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical Co. Ltd. (ZPC) has let a contract to Lummus Technology LLC to license its proprietary propane dehydrogenation (PDH) technology for a new unit to be installed at the operator’s 40-million tonne/year (tpy) integrated refining and petrochemical complex at the Zhoushan Green Petrochemical Base on Yushan Island,

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S&P Global: Middle East crude flows to stay below prewar levels through 2027

Crude markets are settling into a prolonged period in which supply disruption is a standing condition rather than a series of discrete shocks, according to a new analysis from S&P Global Energy. For the first time since the US-Iran war began, the firm no longer expects Middle Eastern crude production to recover to prewar levels by yearend 2027. The outlook assumes no definitive end to the conflict, no normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and no removal of Red Sea disruption risk from Iran’s Houthi allies over that period. Middle Eastern crude and condensate exports are now forecast to average roughly 10-16 million b/d on a monthly basis through 2027, compared with about 20 million b/d in January-February 2026, immediately before the war. Regional crude and condensate production is expected to average 21 million b/d over the same period, 4.2 million b/d below S&P Global’s previous projection. Production capacity has not been permanently lost, but security and logistical constraints are limiting how much oil can reach the market, S&P Global said. Gulf producers have strong incentives to find ways to move more oil to market and can be expected to adapt around political and security constraints where possible, said Jim Burkhard, vice-president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy. The market, however, “is not returning to calm,” Burkhard said. Instead, it is adjusting to conditions defined by unresolved conflict and persistent maritime risk, with oil flows remaining below prewar levels and an uneven path toward recovery. Price outlook S&P Global now expects crude oil prices broadly in an $80-100/bbl range through 2027. Dated Brent is expected to average around $90/bbl or higher for the balance of 2026 and $86/bbl in 2027, $5/bbl above the firm’s previous forecast. Brent recently traded above $100/bbl for the

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Oil extends rally on further Middle East disruptions

Oil, fundamental analysis Global crude oil prices have now been on a 10-day, +$24.50/bbl rally spurred by increasing military actions on both sides of the Iran war. Furthermore, rebel groups have entered on the side of Iran. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) inventories declined again while commercial stocks saw a minor draw. Both gasoline and distillate storages showed increases. WTI’s High was Friday’s $104.45/bbl for October while the Low was Tuesday’s $91.80 (markets were closed Monday). October Brent crude also hit its High also on Friday at $109.95/bbl with the low on Monday at $95.95. After running “too high, too fast,” the market retreated on Friday. However, both grades settled considerably higher on the week. The WTI/Brent spread has now widened to $5.35. This week’s prices were the highest in 90 days. Yemen-based Houthi rebels have entered the regional conflict by attacking Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure on the Red Sea. They managed to capture the port city of Mokha and the island of Perim. Perim sits in the middle of the Bab el-Mandab Strait and essentially divides the strait into two distinct shipping lanes. Bab el-Mandab is the gateway to the Gulf of Oman. Blocking the strait would force Saudi oil shipments to move north in the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, a route that would then involve circumnavigating the African continent to get to Asian markets. Saudi oil production for August was down 1.9 million b/d to about 6.0 million b/d. The US Navy hit three Iranian oil tankers, halting their efforts to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran has struck two vessels near Oman. There has been some talk that certain entities are working with Iran about safe passage arrangements, which is part of the reason for Friday’s lower prices. Meanwhile, at its meeting last Sunday,

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Barclays conference: EOG prepares for steel inflation while Murphy weighs long-term portfolio options

Executives from EOG Resources Inc. and Murphy Oil Corp. spoke at the Barclays 40th Annual Energy-Power Conference in New York this week to discuss inflation pressures, service costs, capital allocation, and the strategic priorities shaping future investment decisions. OGJ also reported on comments from Chevron Corp. and ExxonMobil Corp. at this year’s conference and compiled a similar . EOG Resources Barclays analyst Betty Jiang said chatter is growing about inflationary pressures among service firms as oil prices continue to push higher (and help drive commodity production). Speaking with Jeff Leitzell, chief operating officer of EOG Resources, she asked if those cost trends are essentially devouring efficiency gains EOG is producing via various channels. “There has been some slight inflation but we really haven’t seen a huge shift,” Leitzell told the Barclays audience. “We’ve got very strategic partners […] We don’t gouge them for the lowest cost whenever it’s a downturn and they don’t gouge us for the highest cost whenever it’s an upturn.” One area to watch, Leitzell added, is steel. “We’ve leveraged our inventory where we normally keep kind of a 6- to 12-month inventory […] so we can opportunistically purchase ahead of time,” he added. “We’ve already started purchasing well into ’27 to try to insulate ourselves.” For reference, the price of US Midwest domestic hot-rolled steel has and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics says the year-over-year increase in producer prices for steel pipes and tubes has been . Murphy Oil Eric Hambly, president and chief executive officer of Murphy Oil, and his team have been favoring their offshore portfolio in recent years, including in earlier this summer. With Côte d’Ivoire, Vietnam, and the Gulf of Mexico set to be the focus of exploration work for a while, Jiang asked Hambly about the role of Canadian assets in Murphy’s

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IEA sees oil demand decline deepening as Middle East disruptions persist

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply lowered its outlook for global oil demand in 2026 as continued disruptions in the Middle East and stalled US-Iran negotiations delay the recovery of oil flows. In its September Oil Market Report (OMR), IEA forecast global oil demand will decline by 2.5 million b/d in 2026, 940,000 b/d more than projected in its August report. Demand is expected to rebound by 2.6 million b/d in 2027, narrowly offsetting this year’s decline. IEA said losses in consumption will be concentrated in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks, particularly in Asia. Global demand is forecast at 102.45 million b/d in 2026, down 2.5 million b/d from 2025, before rising to 105.01 million b/d in 2027. The agency said oil demand will not return to its prewar February level of about 106 million b/d until late 2027. As a result, 2026-27 will represent “essentially a lost period” for oil demand growth, it said. IEA also warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict creates downside risks to its assumption of a relatively rapid demand recovery in 2027. Supply remains constrained Global oil production fell 1.6 million b/d month-over-month in August to 100.1 million b/d, with more than 10 million b/d of Gulf production remaining shut in because of heightened security risks. IEA expects global oil supply to average 100.7 million b/d in 2026, down 5.7 million b/d from 2025 and 1.3 million b/d below its previous forecast. The agency has pushed its expected recovery in Gulf production into 2027. Global supply is projected to increase by 8 million b/d next year. Gulf oil supply fell 2 million b/d in August to 21.9 million b/d, or 10.1 million b/d below prewar levels. Gulf exports declined 2.1 million b/d to 13 million b/d, including 10.4 million b/d of crude and

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EIA forecasts continued growth in US crude oil production through 2026

US crude oil production will average a record 13.8 million b/d in 2026, up from the previous record of 13.7 million b/d set in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. Crude production averaged 13.7 million b/d during first-half 2026, an increase of 0.3 million b/d, or 2%, from the same period a year earlier. EIA attributed most of the growth to increased output from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and the Federal Gulf of Mexico. Permian crude oil production is forecasted to average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, up 3% from 2025. EIA said higher crude oil prices are supporting production growth in the basin. West Texas Intermediate averaged $84/bbl through August, compared with $65/bbl in 2025. Current prices remain above reported Permian breakeven levels. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in March, oil executives reported average breakeven prices of $69/bbl in the Midland basin and $63/bbl in the Delaware basin. Federal Gulf of Mexico crude production increased 10%, or 0.2 million b/d, during first-half 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. EIA expects full-year 2026 Gulf production will increase 3%, or 0.1 million b/d. Four major projects that came online during the past year contributed to the Gulf increase. The Shenandoah floating production unit has averaged 70,000 b/d since starting production in July 2025, while the Ballymore subsea tieback has averaged 58,000 b/d since April 2025. The Whale floating production unit has averaged 38,000 b/d since January 2025, and the Salamanca floating production unit has averaged 25,000 b/d since late 2025. EIA expects four additional smaller projects to come online by yearend, providing further support for Gulf production growth.

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EIA: US crude inventories down 400,000 bbl

US crude oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 4, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 400,000 bbl from the previous week, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The data was released a day later than usual due to the closure of the agency for the US Labor Day holiday on Monday, Sept. 7. At 424.1 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are the same as the 5-year average for this time of year, the EIA report indicated. EIA said total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million bbl from last week and are 5% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Distillate inventories increased by 2.1 million bbl last week and are about 13% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Propane-propylene inventories increased 3.1 million bbl, 27% above the 5-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.3 million bbl for the week. US refineries processed 17.6 million b/d for the week ended Sept. 4, which was 91,000 b/d more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 97.8% of capacity. Gasoline output averaged 9.3 million b/d, and distillate production increased to 5.3 million b/d. US crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million b/d, up 53,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last 4 weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million b/d, 2.3% more than the same 4-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports averaged 464,000 b/d. Distillate fuel imports averaged 185,000 b/d.

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DCF Poll: How Should Utilities Vet Real vs. ‘Ghost’ Data Center Demand?

Matt Vincent is Editor in Chief of Data Center Frontier, where he leads editorial strategy and coverage focused on the infrastructure powering cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and the digital economy. A veteran B2B technology journalist with more than two decades of experience, Vincent specializes in the intersection of data centers, power, cooling, and emerging AI-era infrastructure. Since assuming the EIC role in 2023, he has helped guide Data Center Frontier’s coverage of the industry’s transition into the gigawatt-scale AI era, with a focus on hyperscale development, behind-the-meter power strategies, liquid cooling architectures, and the evolving energy demands of high-density compute, while working closely with the Digital Infrastructure Group at Endeavor Business Media to expand the brand’s analytical and multimedia footprint. Vincent also hosts The Data Center Frontier Show podcast, where he interviews industry leaders across hyperscale, colocation, utilities, and the data center supply chain to examine the technologies and business models reshaping digital infrastructure. Since its inception he serves as Head of Content for the Data Center Frontier Trends Summit. Before becoming Editor in Chief, he served in multiple senior editorial roles across Endeavor Business Media’s digital infrastructure portfolio, with coverage spanning data centers and hyperscale infrastructure, structured cabling and networking, telecom and datacom, IP physical security, and wireless and Pro AV markets. He began his career in 2005 within PennWell’s Advanced Technology Division and later held senior editorial positions supporting brands such as Cabling Installation & Maintenance, Lightwave Online, Broadband Technology Report, and Smart Buildings Technology. Vincent is a frequent moderator, interviewer, and keynote speaker at industry events including the HPC Forum, where he delivers forward-looking analysis on how AI and high-performance computing are reshaping digital infrastructure. He graduated with honors from Indiana University Bloomington with a B.A. in English Literature and Creative Writing and lives in southern New Hampshire with

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Nvidia invests $3.5B in MediaTek to extend its grip on AI

AI infrastructure: MediaTek will work with Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion ecosystem to enable customers to develop custom AI infrastructure designed to integrate with Nvidia rack-scale systems and AI factories. Local AI computing: The companies will continue to collaborate on multiple generations of Nvidia RTX Spark and DGX Spark PC chips, powering consumer PCs, AI developer supercomputers, and enterprise-class workstations, that integrate Nvidia GPUs with MediaTek SoCs. Automotive: MediaTek and Nvidia will continue developing platforms for AI-powered, software-defined vehicles in the era of physical AI.  “MediaTek is one of the world’s great semiconductor companies, with exceptional expertise in system-on-chip design, connectivity, leading performance and power efficiency,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia, in a statement. “Together, we’re building platforms that bring Nvidia accelerated computing to new markets and give customers the freedom to create differentiated AI systems at enormous scale.” NVLink is a high-performance interface, but this move also helps lock in customers to the Nvidia platform, since NVLink Fusion is not about to hook up to AMD processors. For MediaTek, the Nvidia investment provides a big pile of cash and access to Nvidia’s infrastructure as it attempts to establish itself as a major supplier of custom data center silicon.

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AI Puts Fiber on the Critical Path

Fiber Becomes Part of the Build A decade ago, DC Blox might have prioritized land near existing fiber from AT&T, Verizon, Zayo or another established network provider. That calculation is different today. As data center campuses have grown and hyperscalers have become a larger share of the customer base, Wabik said connectivity has increasingly become another construction package associated with the project itself. “If Zayo or Verizon or AT&T just happens to be there close by, that’s a good thing,” he said. “But fiber construction is inherently anymore just part of the construction component.” That changes the site-selection question from Is there fiber nearby? to Can fiber be built here at the scale and diversity the customer requires? For DC Blox, Wabik said that can mean assessing whether sufficient public right-of-way exists to establish three or sometimes four diverse fiber paths into a data center. That distinction is important, as AI workloads push infrastructure into markets where power, land and energy options may be more abundant than established carrier density. The hyperscalers themselves have also become major network builders. Wabik characterized them provocatively as today’s telecom providers, pointing to the scale of terrestrial fiber they commission as well as the growing role of companies such as Amazon, Google and Meta in subsea cable development. The point is less that traditional carriers have disappeared than that hyperscalers increasingly design, commission and control enormous portions of the connectivity required to support their own infrastructure. DC Blox now sees requests for 864-count fiber as routine and, in some cases, 1,728-count cable. That would have been difficult to imagine during an earlier era when a handful of fibers from an established carrier could satisfy a data center’s connectivity requirements. AI-Scale Fiber Gets Physical The scale becomes clearer when the discussion moves from abstract network

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Power First: AI Data Centers Become Energy Systems

For decades, data centers consumed electricity much like other large commercial customers: power arrived from the utility, while batteries and diesel generators stood behind it to protect the load. AI is starting to break that model. As data center campuses grow toward hundreds of megawatts and, in some cases, gigawatt scale, developers are increasingly taking responsibility for an energy system that once sat largely outside the data center boundary. Natural gas supply, onsite generation, fuel cells, batteries, controls and the behavior of the compute load itself are increasingly becoming parts of the same infrastructure system. That was the central thread running through “Power First: The New Playbook for Delivering AI Data Centers,” an Aug. 4 session at the Data Center Frontier Trends Summit 2026 in Reston, Virginia. Moderated by Fengrong Li, Senior Managing Director at FTI Consulting, the panel brought together Jim Summers, CEO of GPC Infrastructure; Shankar Achanta, EVP and Chief Product and Technology Officer at FuelCell Energy; Judith Judson, Executive Vice President at Calibrant Energy; and Yuval Bachar, Founder and CEO of EdgeCloudLink. The discussion began with the immediate constraint — the grid cannot deliver capacity on the timetable AI developers increasingly require — but quickly moved beyond the familiar concept of “bridge power.” The larger question was what happens when the data center itself becomes an energy system. From Backup Power to Prime Power Behind-the-meter generation is not new. What has changed is its role and scale. “Traditionally, behind-the-meter generation has been for backup and the sizes were smaller,” Achanta said. “But what they’re seeing is the demand for the power is growing rapidly due to the data center load.” Interconnection queues, transmission limitations and equipment supply constraints are pushing onsite generation into what Achanta called the “front seat,” supplying primary power rather than waiting behind the

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NVIDIA Pushes DSX Deeper Into Data Center Infrastructure

The joint reference design appears in Trane’s Continuum Rubin DSX and Eaton’s Beam Rubin DSX platforms. The goal is a pre-coordinated architecture stretching from grid power to the chip rather than requiring developers and engineering teams to independently assemble electrical and mechanical systems for each project. The systems are also intended to exchange operating data. Rather than cooling and electrical systems responding independently, the systems can instead exchange leading indicators and respond more dynamically to changing operating requirements. This is an approach that closely mirrors NVIDIA’s larger DSX philosophy. Trane and Eaton are also designing the architecture to accommodate future liquid-cooling and direct-current power-distribution technologies. That future-proofing matters as rack power densities continue to rise. An electrical and cooling plant optimized for one GPU generation may otherwise become a constraint several hardware generations later. The Broader DSX Buildout The Lancium, Cloverleaf and Trane/Eaton agreements are part of a considerably wider expansion of the DSX ecosystem. Earlier deals show NVIDIA moving into many of the same infrastructure layers through partnerships spanning powered land, electrical design, digital twins and even project financing. In May, NVIDIA and IREN announced plans to support as much as 5 GW of DSX-aligned AI infrastructure across IREN’s global development pipeline, with the companies identifying IREN’s 2 GW Sweetwater campus in Texas as an expected flagship DSX deployment. NVIDIA also received a five-year right to purchase up to 30 million IREN shares at $70 each, representing a potential investment of as much as $2.1 billion. The infrastructure ecosystem has widened as well. Siemens, NVIDIA and Fluence, incorporating nVent design considerations, have developed a DSX Vera Rubin-aligned electrical, power and controls architecture extending from the utility connection to the rack. ABB is integrating digital models of medium-voltage switchgear, power-distribution equipment and UPS systems into the Omniverse DSX Blueprint, while Vertiv

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ERCOT Puts Texas AI Megawatts to the Test

Texas has no shortage of proposed data center megawatts. The harder question is how many of them are real. That distinction is becoming central to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) as the state works through an unprecedented wave of AI, hyperscale and other large-load requests. In June, ERCOT said it was tracking more than 438 GW of proposed large loads, nearly 89% associated with data centers. By Aug. 3, Gov. Greg Abbott said ERCOT was considering approximately 474 GW of connection requests, roughly 90% from data centers and more than five times the system’s record peak demand. Neither figure represents a forecast of what will actually get built. And that is increasingly the point. ERCOT’s new Batch Zero process is beginning to put harder boundaries around Texas’ enormous development pipeline, asking which projects have enough maturity, technical information and commitment to warrant space in the transmission plan. At the same time, new requirements surrounding voltage ride-through and dynamic modeling are forcing another realization on the AI infrastructure industry: at hundreds of megawatts, a data center is no longer simply a customer at the edge of the grid. Its behavior can affect the grid itself. For developers, utilities and investors, Texas is becoming a large-scale test of what separates an announced AI campus from executable infrastructure. The Queue Is Not the Grid The sheer scale of ERCOT’s large-load queue can obscure how early many projects remain. ERCOT’s April 2026 monthly report offered a revealing snapshot. Large-load applications totaled 445.8 GW through 2033, but 321 GW had no studies submitted to ERCOT. Another 93.7 GW was under ERCOT review, while 22 GW had met the applicable Section 9.5 requirements. Against that enormous development funnel, ERCOT reported just 5.9 GW of observed energized large loads, with another 3.2 GW approved to

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Microsoft will invest $80B in AI data centers in fiscal 2025

And Microsoft isn’t the only one that is ramping up its investments into AI-enabled data centers. Rival cloud service providers are all investing in either upgrading or opening new data centers to capture a larger chunk of business from developers and users of large language models (LLMs).  In a report published in October 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that demand for generative AI would push Microsoft, AWS, Google, Oracle, Meta, and Apple would between them devote $200 billion to capex in 2025, up from $110 billion in 2023. Microsoft is one of the biggest spenders, followed closely by Google and AWS, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Its estimate of Microsoft’s capital spending on AI, at $62.4 billion for calendar 2025, is lower than Smith’s claim that the company will invest $80 billion in the fiscal year to June 30, 2025. Both figures, though, are way higher than Microsoft’s 2020 capital expenditure of “just” $17.6 billion. The majority of the increased spending is tied to cloud services and the expansion of AI infrastructure needed to provide compute capacity for OpenAI workloads. Separately, last October Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said his company planned total capex spend of $75 billion in 2024 and even more in 2025, with much of it going to AWS, its cloud computing division.

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John Deere unveils more autonomous farm machines to address skill labor shortage

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More Self-driving tractors might be the path to self-driving cars. John Deere has revealed a new line of autonomous machines and tech across agriculture, construction and commercial landscaping. The Moline, Illinois-based John Deere has been in business for 187 years, yet it’s been a regular as a non-tech company showing off technology at the big tech trade show in Las Vegas and is back at CES 2025 with more autonomous tractors and other vehicles. This is not something we usually cover, but John Deere has a lot of data that is interesting in the big picture of tech. The message from the company is that there aren’t enough skilled farm laborers to do the work that its customers need. It’s been a challenge for most of the last two decades, said Jahmy Hindman, CTO at John Deere, in a briefing. Much of the tech will come this fall and after that. He noted that the average farmer in the U.S. is over 58 and works 12 to 18 hours a day to grow food for us. And he said the American Farm Bureau Federation estimates there are roughly 2.4 million farm jobs that need to be filled annually; and the agricultural work force continues to shrink. (This is my hint to the anti-immigration crowd). John Deere’s autonomous 9RX Tractor. Farmers can oversee it using an app. While each of these industries experiences their own set of challenges, a commonality across all is skilled labor availability. In construction, about 80% percent of contractors struggle to find skilled labor. And in commercial landscaping, 86% of landscaping business owners can’t find labor to fill open positions, he said. “They have to figure out how to do

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2025 playbook for enterprise AI success, from agents to evals

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More 2025 is poised to be a pivotal year for enterprise AI. The past year has seen rapid innovation, and this year will see the same. This has made it more critical than ever to revisit your AI strategy to stay competitive and create value for your customers. From scaling AI agents to optimizing costs, here are the five critical areas enterprises should prioritize for their AI strategy this year. 1. Agents: the next generation of automation AI agents are no longer theoretical. In 2025, they’re indispensable tools for enterprises looking to streamline operations and enhance customer interactions. Unlike traditional software, agents powered by large language models (LLMs) can make nuanced decisions, navigate complex multi-step tasks, and integrate seamlessly with tools and APIs. At the start of 2024, agents were not ready for prime time, making frustrating mistakes like hallucinating URLs. They started getting better as frontier large language models themselves improved. “Let me put it this way,” said Sam Witteveen, cofounder of Red Dragon, a company that develops agents for companies, and that recently reviewed the 48 agents it built last year. “Interestingly, the ones that we built at the start of the year, a lot of those worked way better at the end of the year just because the models got better.” Witteveen shared this in the video podcast we filmed to discuss these five big trends in detail. Models are getting better and hallucinating less, and they’re also being trained to do agentic tasks. Another feature that the model providers are researching is a way to use the LLM as a judge, and as models get cheaper (something we’ll cover below), companies can use three or more models to

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OpenAI’s red teaming innovations define new essentials for security leaders in the AI era

Join our daily and weekly newsletters for the latest updates and exclusive content on industry-leading AI coverage. Learn More OpenAI has taken a more aggressive approach to red teaming than its AI competitors, demonstrating its security teams’ advanced capabilities in two areas: multi-step reinforcement and external red teaming. OpenAI recently released two papers that set a new competitive standard for improving the quality, reliability and safety of AI models in these two techniques and more. The first paper, “OpenAI’s Approach to External Red Teaming for AI Models and Systems,” reports that specialized teams outside the company have proven effective in uncovering vulnerabilities that might otherwise have made it into a released model because in-house testing techniques may have missed them. In the second paper, “Diverse and Effective Red Teaming with Auto-Generated Rewards and Multi-Step Reinforcement Learning,” OpenAI introduces an automated framework that relies on iterative reinforcement learning to generate a broad spectrum of novel, wide-ranging attacks. Going all-in on red teaming pays practical, competitive dividends It’s encouraging to see competitive intensity in red teaming growing among AI companies. When Anthropic released its AI red team guidelines in June of last year, it joined AI providers including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI, and even the U.S.’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which all had released red teaming frameworks. Investing heavily in red teaming yields tangible benefits for security leaders in any organization. OpenAI’s paper on external red teaming provides a detailed analysis of how the company strives to create specialized external teams that include cybersecurity and subject matter experts. The goal is to see if knowledgeable external teams can defeat models’ security perimeters and find gaps in their security, biases and controls that prompt-based testing couldn’t find. What makes OpenAI’s recent papers noteworthy is how well they define using human-in-the-middle

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