
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply lowered its outlook for global oil demand in 2026 as continued disruptions in the Middle East and stalled US-Iran negotiations delay the recovery of oil flows.
In its September Oil Market Report (OMR), IEA forecast global oil demand will decline by 2.5 million b/d in 2026, 940,000 b/d more than projected in its August report. Demand is expected to rebound by 2.6 million b/d in 2027, narrowly offsetting this year’s decline.
IEA said losses in consumption will be concentrated in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks, particularly in Asia. Global demand is forecast at 102.45 million b/d in 2026, down 2.5 million b/d from 2025, before rising to 105.01 million b/d in 2027.
The agency said oil demand will not return to its prewar February level of about 106 million b/d until late 2027. As a result, 2026-27 will represent “essentially a lost period” for oil demand growth, it said. IEA also warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict creates downside risks to its assumption of a relatively rapid demand recovery in 2027.
Supply remains constrained
Global oil production fell 1.6 million b/d month-over-month in August to 100.1 million b/d, with more than 10 million b/d of Gulf production remaining shut in because of heightened security risks.
IEA expects global oil supply to average 100.7 million b/d in 2026, down 5.7 million b/d from 2025 and 1.3 million b/d below its previous forecast. The agency has pushed its expected recovery in Gulf production into 2027. Global supply is projected to increase by 8 million b/d next year.
Gulf oil supply fell 2 million b/d in August to 21.9 million b/d, or 10.1 million b/d below prewar levels. Gulf exports declined 2.1 million b/d to 13 million b/d, including 10.4 million b/d of crude and condensate. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 7.6 million b/d, while exports bypassing the strait declined 1.9 million b/d to 5.5 million b/d.
OPEC+ crude production fell 1.5 million b/d in August to 33.1 million b/d. Production from the 17 quota-bound OPEC+ members declined 980,000 b/d to 27 million b/d, 7.3 million b/d below their August target. On Sept. 6, OPEC+ agreed to maintain October production targets at September levels.
IEA expects OPEC+ crude output to decline by 5 million b/d in 2026 to 34.5 million b/d. Fourth-quarter Gulf exports are expected to remain at about 60% of prewar levels before recovering by 4.5 million b/d in 2027.
Non-OPEC+ production, meanwhile, is expected to provide some offset. The Americas “Quintet” (the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina) is forecast to add 1.4 million b/d in 2026 and another 1 million b/d in 2027. US oil supply is expected to average 21.8 million b/d this year, up 470,000 b/d from 2025, followed by a 550,000-b/d increase in 2027.
Refining margins surge
Global refinery throughputs reached a summer peak of 81.4 million b/d in August, up 960,000 b/d from July but 4.2 million b/d below a year earlier.
IEA expects global refinery runs to average 81.5 million b/d in 2026, down 2.6 million b/d from 2025, before rising to 84.5 million b/d in 2027.
Refining margins reached record levels in the Atlantic Basin in August, led by sharply higher diesel cracks, while surging freight rates weighed on Singapore profitability. US and European refinery profitability reached new monthly highs, while European diesel cracks exceeded $100/bbl in early September.
Inventories further draws
Global observed oil inventories fell another 95 million bbl in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507 million bbl, or an average 2.8 million b/d. Oil on water declined 65 million bbl as tanker traffic out of the Middle East came under renewed attack.
Non-OECD inventories declined 52 million bbl, led by China, while OECD inventories increased 23 million bbl. Within OECD stocks, commercial inventories rose enough to more than offset a 19-million-bbl draw in government stocks.
The tightening physical market was reflected in crude prices. North Sea Dated crude averaged $91.00/bbl in August, up $7.61/bbl from July, before reaching $113.48/bbl on Sept. 9. The market moved into extreme backwardation as Middle East and Russian supply disruptions tightened availability and buyers shifted toward Atlantic Basin barrels. Tanker costs also were up sharply, in line with rising security risks and strong demand for ships.





















