Global LNG markets are entering winter with limited supply cushion, even as a growing carrier fleet and shorter Atlantic voyages keep shipping rates subdued. Meanwhile China is showing signs of returning to long-term US contracting. New liquefaction capacity and higher utilization outside Qatar and the UAE have offset about 60% of Middle East LNG supply losses since March, according to a recent analysis from Morgan Stanley. Weaker demand outside Europe and European storage withdrawals have helped offset the remaining supply loss, but left inventories unusually low heading into winter. EU storage was about 70% full in late September, compared with 82% a year earlier and a 10-year average of 87%. Morgan Stanley raised its fourth-quarter JKM forecast to $27.50/MMbtu from $25/MMbtu, citing a slower Qatari restart and continued winter upside risk. Europe is drawing more flexible US supply. About 57% of US LNG exports were headed to Europe in September, up from 53% in August, while US feedgas rose about 6% month over month as Freeport recovered from an outage. Strong European demand is supporting vessel demand, but shorter US-Europe voyages and rapid fleet growth are more than offsetting that pressure. Atlantic spot rates for modern two-stroke LNG carriers stood at about $25,750/day on Oct. 6, while Pacific rates were about $39,000/day, according to Spark Commodities data. About 55 new LNG carriers were delivered in the first 7 months of 2026, with more expected by yearend. Morgan Stanley similarly noted that Asia LNG carrier rates had fallen about 80% from early-March highs and returned near pre-conflict levels, although route costs remain above levels immediately before the conflict. Meantime, the investment bank expects more than 30 million tpy of non-Middle East capacity to start by end-2027, before additional volumes from Qatar’s North Field expansion. China contracting returns China is adding another

US crude oil inventories for the week ended Oct. 2, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 3.2 million bbl from the previous week, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). At 424.1 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are 1% above the 5-year average for this time of year, the EIA report indicated. Gasoline inventories increased 0.4 million bbl, 6% below the 5-year average. Propane-propylene inventories decreased 1.8 million bbl, 18% above the 5-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.9 million bbl for the week. Distillate inventories remained unchanged, 12% below the 5-year average. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million b/d for the week ended Oct. 2, which was 223,000 b/d more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.7% of capacity. Gasoline output averaged 9.3 million b/d, and distillate production increased to 5.3 million b/d. Crude oil imports increased 1.1 million b/d to 6.8 million b/d. The 4-week average of 6.4 million b/d is 4.3% above the year-ago level. Gasoline imports averaged 512,000 b/d; distillate imports averaged 118,000 b/d. Over the past four weeks, total product supplied averaged 21.1 million b/d, up 0.7% year over year. The 4-week average for gasoline product supplied dereased 0.3% year over year to 8.8 million b/d, while the 4-week average for distillate product supplied decreased 1.6% to 3.8 million b/d. The 4-week average for jet fuel product supplied increased 6.0% year over year.

The restructuring follows Chevron’s acquisition of Hess Corp. in July 2025. Chevron inherited Hess Corp.’s 37.8% interest in Hess Midstream, which provides midstream services to Chevron’s Bakken operations. Hess Midstream subsequently adjusted its outlook after Chevron reduced its Bakken drilling program to 3 rigs from 4 in late 2025. The lower activity led Hess Midstream to suspend its planned Capa gas plant project and lower its throughput and capital-spending expectations. Chevron is now expected to reduce its Bakken drilling program to 2 rigs in December, with Hess Midstream’s minimum revenue commitments for 2027-29 based on the 2-rig program, Hess noted. Bakken agreements Hess Midstream and Chevron will reduce the tariff rates Chevron pays for crude oil and natural gas gathering and processing services in the Bakken for 2027-33 and extend the agreements through 2045. Bakken agreements currently structured on a cost-of-service basis will convert to fixed-fee arrangements with inflation escalators. The revised agreements will include a minimum revenue commitment equal to 80% of Hess Midstream’s expected Bakken revenues attributable to Chevron through 2033. The minimum revenue commitment will be established 3 years in advance and, once established for a given year, can only increase based on updated annual development plans provided by Chevron. Minimum commitments for 2027-29 have been established on the basis of a 2-rig program, Hess Midstream said in a separate release. Hess Midstream said the revised commercial arrangements are expected to support Chevron’s investment in the Bakken. Chevron expects to sustain Bakken production through continued technology deployment and operational improvements drawn from its global shale and tight-oil portfolio. Hess Midstream expects Bakken throughput volumes to decline about 5% in 2027 as a result of reduced Chevron activity and then generally plateau beginning in 2028. DJ Basin assets Hess Midstream will acquire Chevron’s crude oil and natural gas

OGJ: Energy security is becoming a major driver of the energy transition. The DNV outlook found that energy-importing countries are scaling clean energy three times faster than energy-exporting countries. From the perspective of an oil and gas operator, what is the most important implication of that divergence? Alvik: I think it’s important to realize that the customers of the oil and gas business are, longer term, trying to avoid being dependent on that commodity. If you’re exporting oil like the US or Norway or Canada or Brazil or Saudi, your key strategy is to meet the shortfall of Middle East oil and gas as much as possible. But for the importer, both the vulnerability of the supply chains and the price hikes, as well as the attacks on the infrastructure, are demonstrating how vulnerable you are when you are importing any sort of critical commodity to your country, like energy is. And on top of that, you have the industry. If you have a large renewable industry, you would like that to grow. China is the best example. If you have a large oil and gas industry, you would like [that] to grow. The US is a major example of that. So, there are diverging interests leading to diverging results between importers and exporters, and this is clearer than ever. OGJ: Definitely. The Strait of Hormuz is a big part of what’s put energy security back at the center of the conversation. Do you think the current disruption represents a temporary shock to energy markets, or could it fundamentally change how governments and companies think about their exposure to imported oil and gas? Alvik: I think it could fundamentally change. The same way as the Russian attack on Ukraine dramatically changed how Germany, or Poland, or other countries were looking

“These are long-life assets located in an area where Cenovus already has a deep operating experience and strong understanding of the resource,” McKenzie said on a conference call with analysts. “They also represent one of the only remaining large-scale opportunities to add meaningful thermal reserves, resource and future development inventory within the core of the oil sands.” Among Cenovus’ growth plans is accelerating production from Athabasca’s Corner project northwest of Christina Lake by consolidating two planned expansion phases. Doing so would let Corner’s output grow to 40,000 boe/d by 2032, 3 years faster than today’s forecast. Also in the cards are efficiency projects at Athabasca’s Leismer assets that would grow production by half to about 60,000 boe/d by 2032. Michael Berger, a senior analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research, said buying Athabasca “refills Cenovus’ growth pipeline” as it relates to future production growth. The deal, he added, also “represents an escalation in oil sands deal valuations” that reflects the energy sector’s changing global dynamics. “The higher price paid by Cenovus compared to historical deals reflects a rerating of Canadian oil sands producers higher as the industry’s critical position in providing long-term oil resource in a resource-constrained world grows sharper,” Berger wrote in a commentary analyzing the acquisition plan. “While U.S. plays offer up to a decade of core inventory, the oil sands hold multiple decades. Additionally, scarcity always demands a premium and logical large-scale oil sands acquisition targets have been significantly drawn down.” The planned transaction is expected to be roughly 70% funded by cash and 30% by Cenovus shares and should close by the end of this year. It also will consolidate ownership of Duvernay Energy Corp., an oil-weighted joint venture the two companies created nearly 3 years ago that today operates more than 170 locations on roughly 90,000 net

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