
Oil prices surged about 5% on Thursday, Oct. 8, as renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Middle East and hurricane-related production shutdowns in the US Gulf of Mexico raised concerns about near-term crude supply.
Oil prices rose sharply in early Thursday trading, with Brent crude climbing 5% to above $105/bbl and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also posting strong gains. Both benchmarks later eased a bit from their session highs.
The advance reflected growing supply risks in two major producing regions. In the Middle East, renewed attacks on commercial vessels have disrupted a recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, offshore operators in the US Gulf of Mexico have shut in production and evacuated personnel ahead of Hurricane Isaias.
Shipping disruptions intensify
Security conditions in the Persian Gulf have deteriorated in recent days, with attacks reported near Qatar, Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns about the reliability of the shipping corridor.
According to the Financial Times, oil flows through the strait had recovered to nearly 90% of prewar levels in late September before declining again as attacks intensified. Transit volumes subsequently fell to about 11 million b/d, with flows estimated at roughly 4 million b/d on Tuesday, Oct. 6.
The renewed disruptions threaten to reverse recent improvements in regional crude exports and prolong uncertainty over Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict has added to market concerns. Axios reported that the Pentagon had ordered preparations for potential large-scale military operations against Iran. However, President Donald Trump said Thursday that the US would not resume military strikes against Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, as diplomatic discussions continued.
US Gulf production curtailed ahead of hurricane
In the US, offshore producers have curtailed operations as Hurricane Isaias approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
According to the US Marine Minerals Administration, an estimated 511,619 b/d of oil production, equivalent to 25.1% of regional output, had been shut in as of Oct. 7. Natural gas shut-ins totaled 350.25 MMcfd, or 16.4% of regional production.
Shell has suspended production at several offshore installations, including Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox, while evacuating personnel as a precaution. Chevron has also initiated shutdowns at four operated platforms, although production at five other regional sites remained unaffected.
Isaias strengthened into a hurricane early Thursday and was forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, bringing the potential for damaging winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
The duration of production losses will depend on the storm’s path and whether offshore facilities sustain damage. Production at undamaged installations generally can resume once weather conditions improve and operators complete safety inspections.
Inventories and emergency stock releases
US inventory data provided additional support for crude prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday, Oct. 7, that commercial crude inventories declined by 3.2 million bbl to 424.1 million bbl in the week ended Oct. 2.
Distillate inventories edged down by 42,000 bbl to 105.1 million bbl, remaining about 12% below their 5-year seasonal average and underscoring continued tightness in refined-product supplies.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed Wednesday to accelerate deliveries under an existing emergency oil-stock release program, with particular attention to diesel availability.
According to the agency, around 325 million bbl had already been released under the emergency action initiated in March, with roughly 100 million bbl of previously pledged stocks still available for delivery.
The decision accelerates the release of previously committed barrels rather than increasing the overall volume pledged by participating countries, offering a limited near-term buffer against renewed supply disruptions.





















